Itsik Sapir 1 Michael Ben Haim 1 and Doron Greenberg 2 1 Department of Mechanical Engineering and Mechatronics Ariel University 2 Department of Economics and Business Administration Ariel ID: 812914
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Slide1
Will Banning ICE Vehicles Reduce Pollution?
Itsik
Sapir
1
,
Michael Ben Haim
1
and Doron Greenberg
2
1
Department of Mechanical Engineering and Mechatronics, Ariel
University
.
2
Department of Economics and Business Administration, Ariel
University.
Slide2Outline
Frequent Government Announcements of ICE Proscription
The Small Vehicle Market
Today and the Availability of an Electric Transportation OptionThe Natural Oil Refining producesThe “Ban Scenario” and its OutcomesElectricity Generation Annual Growth Vs. Vehicle Fleet Mileage GrowthExternal Costs of Transportation ICE Vs. EV
Slide3[1]
Kalghatgi
, G.
T (2015).[2] Yang, Christopher, David McCollum, Ryan McCarthy, and Wayne Leighty. (2009): Government proscription of ICEs in small vehicles is rapidly spreading – from California to India. While such announcements are frequent, the legislation is rare and mostly does not exist. On the other hand, air pollution in densely urban areas cannot be reduced to sufficient levels without significant change in transportation air pollution [1-2 and references within].
Slide4The small vehicle market today
21 fully electric vehicles (EV) and 28 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs),
were examined. We have found the following:
Slide5The small vehicle market today
Vehicle type / model
mileage
kmRenault Twizy 62100Citroen C-Zero 93150
Peugeot iOn
93
150
Volkswagen e-Up
99
159
Smart EQ
99
159
Volkswagen e-Golf
144
232
Morgan EV3
150
241
Kia Soul EV
155
249
Nissan e-NV200 Combi
174
280
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
174
280
BMW i3 42kwh
225
362
Nissan Leaf 40kWh
235
378
Renault Zoe R110 ZE 40
250
402
Mercedes-Benz EQC400 80kWh
280
451
DS 3 Crossback E-Tense
280
451
Audi E-tron 95kWh
300
483
Jaguar I-Pace
336
541
Tesla Model X P100D
336
541
Hyundai Kona Electric 64kWh
339
546
Kia e-Niro 64kWh
339
546
Tesla Model S 100D Dual Motor AWD
393
632
Average
216.95
349.14
RMS
101.33
163.07
Slide6Vehicle type / model
mileage
km
Mercedes C350 Plug-in Hybrid914MINI Cooper S E Countryman ALL41016BMW 740e xDrive Plug-In Hybrid
14
23
BMW 330e
14
23
BMW X5 xdrive40e
14
23
BMW i8
15
24
BMW 530e
16
26
Audi A3 e-Tron
16
26
Volvo XC90 T8
17
27
Volvo XC60 T8
18
29
Subaru Crosstrek
20
32
Ford C-Max Energi
20
32
Ford Fusion Energi
21
34
Mitsubishi Outlander
22
35
Toyota Prius Prime
25
40
Kia niro
26
42
Porsche Cayenne S E-Hybrid
27
43
Hyundai Sonata
27
43
Hyundai Ioniq
29
47
Kia Optima
30
48
Mercedes S560
31
50
Cadillac CT6
33
53
Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid
37
60
Karma Revero
47
76
Honda Clarity Plug-In Hybrid
53
85
Chevrolet Volt
97
156
BMW i3s REx
97
156
BMW i3 REx
97
156
Average
31.50
50.69
RMS
25.26
40.65
Slide7There is a wide
range of fully electric vehicles (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs
).
For EV we have found an average range of 349 km with RMS of 163 km, and for PHEVs we have found an average range of electric propulsion of 50 km with RMS of 40 km.
Slide8Hence, the availability of an electric transportation option
for metropolises
already exists.
Therefore, there is a great probability that EVs or PHEVs will soon take over the small vehicle sector.
Slide9Every unit mass of natural oil used for refining
produces(*) about:
45
% of gasoline25% of diesel9% jet fueland other products such as asphalt, lubricants, heavy fuels, etc. *while using cracking options available
today
Slide10If there will be a dramatic
reduction of gasoline consumption in those countries that will ban ICEs from operating in metropolises or ICE imports and production (referred to as "ban scenario
"), this
will lead to two main outcomes: Lower price of gasoline fuel Higher price of every other product of oil refining.The reasons are rather simple concepts of supply and demand.
Slide11One more obvious outcome in this "ban scenario" is that the total mileage of the vehicle fleet will continue to grow as before due to modern lifestyles
.
Therefore
, the energy supply source to the vehicle fleet should grow to meet the increasing demand. While electricity generation annual growth rate is under 0.3% for North America, the vehicle fleet mileage has grown by 2.2% per year.
Slide12E
lectric
power plants will consume more of their energy source
in the optimistic scenario that vehicle charging will occur mostly at low electricity consumption times (usually midnight till sunrise), or will have to expand peak production rate in the pessimistic scenario that vehicle charging will occur at all times of the day and night. In both of these cases, power plants will consume more of their energy source and increase the demand for it.
Slide13In this
talk
we will assess the impact of those suggested regulations
and scenarios on the fuel market, and offer some solutions that will keep the market as stable as possible – even if the "ban scenario" or high market penetration of EV will ever occur.
Slide14First we
will assess the impact of "ban scenario“ on cost of air
pollution by
using "Update of the handbook on external costs of transport." DG MOVE (2014). We used an average constant
as car gasoline (petrol) for all engine sizes and for urban and suburban roads (metropolises; APC = Air Pollution
Costs)
For PHEVs, we used 2 different constants:
Where
is the Air Pollution Costs for electric propulsion
only, while electricity is produced in a power plant which has 80% efficiency, 90% efficiency for electric delivery, 85% efficiency of battery charging, and 95% efficiency of EV engine. Hence,
is valid only for the first
50
km, since the average range of electric propulsion for PHEVs only was found to be 50 km. For the range above 50 km, we estimated to be 30% less than the ICE APC (), since hybrid vehicle fuel consumption is 30% lower than ICE in the same conditions. Hence,
Air pollution costs of vehicles by mileage: Option 1 ICE; Option 2 PHEV initially only electric till 70 km, and then Hybrid mode; Option 3 EV.
Slide181
. Penetration rate of EVs and PHEVs should be further encouraged taking into account the dramatic possible reduction in air pollution costs and public
health
.Our recommendations for policymakers
Slide192. The electricity generation growth rate should be enlarged to cope at least with the mileage growth rate.
Our recommendations for policymakers
Slide203. Charging of vehicles should be monitored and regulated to be carried out at low electric consumption times to avoid high electric power peaks.
Our recommendations for policymakers
Slide214. Gasoline price reduction as a high probability scenario should translate into carefully monitored and regulated production rates (and import rates) of gasoline to allow for reduction of air pollution costs.
Our recommendations for policymakers
Slide22Will Banning ICE Vehicles Reduce Pollution?
Itsik
Sapir
1, Michael Ben Haim1 and Doron Greenberg21 Department of Mechanical Engineering and Mechatronics, Ariel University.2 Department of Economics and Business Administration, Ariel University.