1 Dennis S Mileti PhD Professor Emeritus University of Colorado at Boulder Keynote Address Policy Forum Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security Monterey ID: 1020947
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1. DISASTER MYTHS, FABLES& OLD WIVE’S TALES1Dennis S. Mileti, Ph.D.Professor EmeritusUniversity of Colorado at BoulderKeynote AddressPolicy Forum, Naval Postgraduate SchoolCenter for Homeland Defense and SecurityMonterey, CA: November 9, 2009
2. HOW TO LISTENYou’ll Have Conversations With Yourself While I’m Speaking:And they might sound something like this:“He’s wrong & I have evidence that proves it”Request:Don’t let internal dialogues distract you from listeningWe can talk about counterpoints later2
3. TOPICS COVEREDReview Some Disaster Behavior MythsDiscuss The Source Of Disaster MythsAddress How Myths Are PerpetuatedImplications Of Belief in Myths3
4. A MYTH EXISTS WHEN….People Believe Something Is TrueBut its not They Think They Have Evidence For It:But they don’tAnd They Won’t Stop Believing It:No matter what others might say4
5. DISASTER MYTHSExist About Every Phase Of Disaster:Pre-impactDuring impactPost-impactRegarding All Disaster Actors:PublicResponse organizationsEmergency workers5
6. HERE ARE A FEW MYTHSABOUT DISASTERS6
7. ECONOMIES DECLINE IF TALK ABOUT FUTURE DISASTERSMYTH:Frighten the publicProperty values will declineTourists and investors will stay awayThere are no tsunami (or shark) signs in HonoluluREALITY:Disasters happen to other people in other placesPeople perceive safety, not riskExample: San Francisco’s Marina District7
8. WARNINGS SHOULDBE SHORTMYTH: You can’t hold the public’s attentionWarn people at risk in a few wordsLet the media handle the restREALITY:Applies to advertising & undergraduate lecturesDoesn’t apply to warningsWarned people become “information starved”They’ll find what they want to know someplace else8
9. PEOPLE PANIC IN DISASTERSMYTH:People will panic (self over others)Individual motives replace social motives“We didn’t issue a warning to avoid panic”REALITY:Social motives replace individual motivesActual panic is VERY rareFour conditions must exist: People in confined spacesEscape routes exist, not enough time for all to use themThink will die if don’t leavePeople have to compete to live9
10. PEOPLE LOOT AND STEAL DURING DISASTERSMYTH:People will loot and stealTake valuables from dead neighborsSteal what evacuees left behindREALITY:People give to each other in disastersFree McDonald’s hamburgersShare what they have to eat/drink with strangersExample: bread convergence in Soviet Armenia10
11. WOMEN BECOME INCOMPETANT & ROLE ABANDONMENT RESULTSMYTH:Emergency worker’s wives (at home) become helpless, & forget how to driveFirst responders (men) have role conflict, abandon their jobs, & go home to rescue their helpless wivesNRC has most NNPs in America train an extra 20%REALITY:95% of people rescued in urban earthquakes rescued by other surviving victims (emergent work groups)Role strain & succession occursMultiple shifts of first responders reported in at TMI11
12. HUMAN RATIONALITY ENDS & FEAR RULES THE DAYMTYH:People do wrong things because of fear:Run outside in earthquakesDash to schools to get their kidsShadow evacuation (safe people evacuate)REALITY:People do what they think is rationalTMI “over-evacuation” was actually rational12
13. ABERRANT BEHAVIOR ABOUNDSMYTH:Evacuees in cars fight on highways & in gas stationsMartial law & National Guard are needed to maintain law and order REALITY:Accidents goes down in evacuationsSpousal abuse goes down (at least initially)Crime all but disappearsWhat does go up is alcohol consumption:It’s a coping mechanism13
14. BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHERMyths Synthesis :Disasters strip the thin veneer of civilization from humanity & its everyone for themselvesThe public = “the problem”Reality Synthesis:The thin veneer of civilization is actually, albeit temporarily, strengthenedThe public = “part of the solution”14
15. WHERE DO MYTHS COME FROM? WHY DO THEY PERSIST?Inherently Sociological QuestionsMost Disaster Myths Are Decades Old:Sociological papers on the topic abound and date back to the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970sSearch for “disaster myths” on Google & you can access many of those papersSome Myths Have Existed For Centuries15
16. ROOT SOURCE OF MYTHSMost People Know Disasters Change Our Physical Environment:Rubble, destruction, collapsed & burnt buildingsEveryone can “see” itMost People Don’t Know Disasters Also Change Our Social Environment:The “social glue” that holds society together is transformed by disasterMost non-social scientists can’t “see” it16
17. WHAT WE’LL COVERIs Pretty Much Applicable To Everyone:Transcends time, culture & spaceHolds Regardless of Disaster Agent:Natural, technological, terrorism, etc.Part Of Many Freshman Sociology Courses17
18. TYPOLOGY OF EXTREME EVENTSEmergencies:CAPACITY: of local emergency response not exceededGAPS: no service delivery gapsCONVERGENCE: of external response organizations absentDisasters:CAPACITY: of local emergency response exceededGAPS: emergent public response due to service delivery gaps CONVERGENCE: external responders “quick” to arriveCatastrophes:CAPACITY: of local emergency response exceededGAPS: emergent public response due to service delivery gapsCONVERGENCE: external responders “slower” to arrive 18
19. THE ROLE OF GAPSService Delivery Gaps Focus:Emergent public responseEmergent Public Response Reinforce:Transformation of the social orderTransformation Of The Social Order Means:The “social glue” that holds society together shiftsThe “blueprint” for interpersonal interaction alters19
20. WHAT TRIGGERS THE TRANSFORMATION?20
21. NORMAL VS. DISASTERSOCIAL ORDERS21 DISASTERNORMAL
22. WHAT HAPPENS MOST OF THE TIMENormal Social Order:Social glue = secondary relationshipsTransformation (normal to disaster): Empathy, guilt, disaster syndromeDisaster Social Order:Social glue = collective behavior (like intense primary relationships)Transformation (disaster back to normal):Convergence from the outsideMutual aid, FEMA, National guard, etc.Goals achieved22
23. DISASTER VS. CHAOSSOCIAL ORDERS23 CHAOS DISASTER
24. THEORETICALLY POSSIBLE BUT EXTREMELY RARETransformation (disaster to chaos):Overwhelm: can’t achieve goalsIsolation: no convergence Theoretically possible: only “observed” twice in historyChaos Social Order:No social glue, no relationships, withdrawal, society endsTransformation (chaos to disaster):Convergence from the outsideMutual aid, FEMA, National guard, etc.Goals not yet achievedTransformation (disaster to normal):Goals achieved24
25. INTEGRATED SOCIAL ORDER & TRANSFORMATION MODEL25 CHAOS DISASTERNORMAL
26. WHERE DO MYTHSCOME FROM?26
27. SOURCE OF MYTHSViewing “Disaster” Interaction Through “Normal Non-Disaster” Eyes:Outsiders (not transformed) at a disaster scene:New “social glue/order” looks different & call it chaosPre-disaster “what would you do if” surveysHas Always Happened & Always WillLectures Like This Will Always Be Needed27
28. A FEW MORE COMMENTSWhat We’ve Just Gone Over Is:Is pretty close to a cultural universal:It occurs independent of time, space & cultureIs Part Of Being Human:There may have been species of humans that didn’t respond to disasters this way:But they died out28
29. HOW ARE MYTHSPERPETUATED?29
30. FOLK KNOWLEDGEDisaster Myths Are Passed Along:Person to person &Generation to generationAs “Folk” Knowledge:Through popular culture Via The Same Mechanism That Transmits All “Folk Wisdom” Elements Including:Stereotypes, values, mores, gender roles, etc.Here Are Some Examples…..30
31. MOVIE SCRIPTSMyths Sell Movie Tickets, Reality Doesn’t:MYTH: Disaster cause the thin veneer of civilization to be stripped from humanity and its everyone for themselves, e.g., panic, role abandonment & lootingREALITY: Disasters bring out the best in people, not the worstMany Believe What They See In Movies:Even some emergency managers31
32. MEDIA DISASTER REPORTSMedia Can (not always) Exaggerate:Initial “death estimates” typically twice realityTV anchor “stage” during Loma Prieta“Near panic” at Kiev train station in Chernobyl“Chaos everywhere” often reported After Its Over Most Mayors Exclaim:“I’m proud of my community—we’re unique”When the “chips were down” everyone here came together to help each other:(IMPLYING: “unlike the rest of you slimy panic-prone American looters”)32
33. EXCEPTIONS BECOMETHE RULERare Exceptions To General Patterns Exist: E.g., looting, aberrant behavior & role abandonment in New Orleans during Hurricane KatrinaBecome “Evidence” For The Myths:Legitimate the mythsValidate policies based on mythsOne good exception can negate 100s (maybe 1,000s) of case events to the contrary33
34. TWO QUESTIONS AREWORTH ANSWERING34
35. DO MYTHS HAVE IMPACTS?Misplaced Resources?Poorly Conceived Policies & Programs?Under Funded Solutions?Opportunities Overlooked?35
36. DO MYTHS HAVE DIFFERENT IMPACTS BASED ON CONTEXT?Emergencies - Disasters - Catastrophes?Particularly Since We Know That:Emergencies, disasters, and catastrophes are inherently different phenomenaAnd since they’re different, why do we call it all “emergency management”?36
37. QUESTIONS?dennis.mileti@colorado.edu(303) 520-340037