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ofhighuncertaintymarkedbytheDotCombubbletheGulfWarIIandothersgeopolit


3GiventhesimilaritybetweenourindiceswechoosetocomparetheGEPUwithourEPUCindexMainresultsarenotsensibletothischoiceMoreoverweconsidertheGEPUindexwhichtaketheweightsusingPPPandnotcurrentprices4Thisiscons

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Document on Subject : "ofhighuncertaintymarkedbytheDotCombubbletheGulfWarIIandothersgeopolit"— Transcript:

1 ofhighuncertainty,markedbytheDot-Combubb
ofhighuncertainty,markedbytheDot-Combubble,theGulfWarIIandothersgeopoliticalfactorsthatkeptonthevergefoodandcommodityprices,asisthecaseofcopperwhichisofvitalimportancetotheChileaneconomy.Thesecondsemesterofyear2003itisnotedthatbeganaperiodofgreatmoderationthatlasteduntilthecollapseininternationalcapitalmarketsin2008,whichweknowtodayastheGreatRecession.TherearetwointerestingthingstonoteintheperiodthatfollowedtheLehmanBrothersbankruptcy:thespeedatwhichEPUwasdissolvedandthelimitedimpactthatEPUreceivedfromthe27FChileanearthquake.Thenext

2 signi cantshockofuncertaintytothecou
signi cantshockofuncertaintytothecountrywastheEuropeandebtcrisis.In2011,GreecefellintodefaultandweobserveworriesaboutwhetherthisfactweretotraduceinasystematiccollapseinseveralimportantEuropeancountriesthatwerehighlyindebted.Apparently,EPUhasincreasedinrecentyears,evensurpassingthelevelsexhibitedintheAsiancrisisortheGreatRecession.2014and2015wereyearsmarkedforseveralreformsandannouncementsofreformsincludingataxreform,alaborreform,aconstitutionalreformandareformtothepensionsystem.AsitisshowninFigure1,bothpeaksin2014wereassociatedt

3 oreformsdrivenbytheactualgovernment:thet
oreformsdrivenbytheactualgovernment:thetaxreformwhichgetsconstitutionalapprovalduringAugustofthatyearandthelaborreformthatenteredtodiscussioninthecongressattheendofDecember.Despitethefactthatin2015severalarticlesmentionednewsassociatedtothesereforms,thepeakcorrespondtoJuly:themonthwhereChinawassu eringgreatturbulencesinits nancialmarket.Accordingtotheindices,worriesaboutChina'seconomy,thelowpriceofcopperandtheeconomicreformsaresomeofthefactorsbehindtherecentincreaseinChileanEPU.TogetaglanceonhowdoesourindicescomparetoglobalE

4 PU,Figure2showstheevolutionofourEPUCinde
PU,Figure2showstheevolutionofourEPUCindexwiththeGlobalEconomicPolicyUncertainty(GEPU)indexconstructedbyDavis(2016)3.TomaketheEPUCcomparabletotheGEPU,wedothesamestandardizationprocessasbeforefortheEPUCbutconsideringtheperiodbetweenJanuary1997toAugust2016.From1997tothemiddleof2003,theEPUCindexwasremarkablyabovetheGEPUindex.Afterthatperiod,weobserveagreatmoderationinbothindiceswhichendedwiththeGreatRecession.Whilebothindicesshowedapeakinthemiddleof2008,thereaftertheGEPUindexwasconsistentlyabovetheEPUCindexuntil20144.Asdiscussedprevious

5 ly,theChileanecon-omyexperiencedincrease
ly,theChileanecon-omyexperiencedincreasesinEPUduring2014duetoataxandalaborreform.InterestinglyinthisperiodtheGEPUindexwassigni cantlybelowthelevelshowedbyourEPUCindex.Thisindicates,atleastinsomedegree,thatanimportantpartofthisEPUobservedinChilewasduetointernalcausesandnotbyglobalcauses.Inrecentmonths,theseindiceshavetendtoalignwiththeEPUCindexshowingthesametendencyastheGEPUindexbutinlessdegreeindicatingthatthereishigherEPUlevelsintheglobaleconomythaninitsChileancounterpart. 3Giventhesimilaritybetweenourindiceswechoosetocompareth

6 eGEPUwithourEPUCindex.Mainresultsarenots
eGEPUwithourEPUCindex.Mainresultsarenotsensibletothischoice.Moreover,weconsidertheGEPUindexwhichtaketheweightsusingPPPandnotcurrentprices.4ThisisconsistentwithacommonideapresentsintheChileanenvironmentthattheeconomywasnothitatthesamelevelbythe2008 nancialcrisisastheglobaleconomydid.3 4ConclusionWehaveconstructedtwoEPUindicesfortheChileaneconomyusinganews-basedapproachinthespiritofBakeretal.(2016):anEPUindexwhichcapturesbothdomesticandforeignEPUandanEPUCindexwhichseekstomeasuredomesticEPUonly.Wehaveseenthattheseindicesbehavewelli

7 nthesensethattheyincreaseduringmajoreven
nthesensethattheyincreaseduringmajoreventssuchaspoliticalreformsoreconomiccrises.WhencomparedtotheGlobalEconomicUncertaintyIndex(GEPU)developedbyDavis(2016),weseethatourEPUCindextrackstheglobaltendencywellbutdi ersinthemagnitude,suggestingthatourmeasureofeconomicpolicyuncertaintyfortheChileaneconomyisdi erentfromwhatithasbeenintherestoftheworld.YearstocomearegoingtobeplaguedbyanerraticbehaviorinEPUwithitscorrespondinge ectoverimportantmacroeconomicvariablesasextensiveeconomicliteraturehassuggested.ThushavingmeasuresofEPU

8 willbeavaluableassetinthenextyears.Witht
willbeavaluableassetinthenextyears.Withtheconstructionoftheseindices,weexpecttocontributetothischallenge.4 Fig.2.GEPUPPPandEPUC,January1997toAugust2016 ReferencesBaker,ScottR.,NicholasBloom,andStevenJ.Davis,\MeasuringEconomicPolicyUncertainty,"TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,2016,131(4),1593{1636.Davis,StevenJ.,\AnIndexofGlobalEconomicPolicyUncertainty,"WorkingPaper22740,NationalBureauofEconomicResearchOctober2016.Kroese,Lars,SuzanneKok,andJanteParlevliet,\BeleidsonzekerheidinNederland,"EconomischStatistischeBerichten,2015,4715,464{4