Teachers Workshop on the EU Carleton University November 24 2017 Patrick Leblond CNPaul M Tellier Chair on Business and Public Policy Graduate School of Public and International Affairs ID: 798819
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Slide1
Brexit
: What Happened & Where is it Going?
Teachers’ Workshop on the EU, Carleton University,
November 24, 2017
Patrick Leblond
CN-Paul M.
Tellier
Chair on Business and Public Policy
Graduate School of Public and International Affairs
Slide2How do we explain the brexit vote?
Slide3Slide4Why such support for Brexit?
UK support for the EU has been weak for yearsMember state politicians blame “Brussels” when things do not got their way The Russian roulette of referendumsImmigrationEconomy (“they steal our jobs”)Security (“They let in terrorists”)The economic and political elite is against the “people”People are not well informed
Slide5EU support has been weakest in the UK
Source: Hobolt (2016)
Slide6Reasons for Brexit voting intentions
ArgumentsLeaveRemainImmigration controls
XLack of confidence in the prime minister or the governmentXCost of EU membershipX
Consequences for securityXLack of knowledge and confidenceXLack of informationXXBrexit’s economic risksXEconomic stability provided by the EUXEconomic benefits from EU membershipXSource: Hobolt
(2016)
Slide7Vote for Brexit decreased
with educationSource: Hobolt (2016)
Slide8Vote for Brexit increased
with ageSource: http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-36619342
Slide9Post-brexit : The UK’s economic relations
Slide10Relations with the EU: 2 negotiations
The “divorce” (i.e. the exit)2 years afterArticle 50 has been invoked Dividing the assets, liabilities and the children “Free trade” (post-exit relation): hard or soft Brexit? Four possible modelsThe Norwegian model?The Swiss model?
The Turkish model?The Canadian model? (CETA++ or CETA--)The EU’s negotiating red lines Access to the EU single market implies the free movement of people The EU’s 4 liberties form an indivisible package
Slide11The UK’s trade relations with the rest of the world
Not before exiting the EUProbably not before a free trade agreement with the EU has been negotiated The UK’s human resources on matters of international trade and investment are limited Negotiations with the EU will take up most of these resources WTO rules could apply for many yearsBut they still need to be defined in the UK’s case
Slide12THANK YOU!