by Demography 1979 as a Turning Point in the Disintegration of the Soviet Union Professor Monica Duffy Toft First International Conference on Political Demography and Social MacroDynamics Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Moscow ID: 319864
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Slide1
Death by Demography?1979 as a Turning Point in the Disintegration of the Soviet Union
Professor
Monica Duffy Toft
First
International Conference on Political Demography and Social Macro-Dynamics
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow
December
13–14
, 2013
Slide2
OutlineBackgroundArgument
ImplicationsSlide3Slide4
Research on Demography and Ethnic Relations
Seek to
understand:
The
conditions under which demography shapes national security
Domestic level
Regional level
International levelSlide5
Why should we care? Explaining the collapse of one of the largest
and more powerful states
historically
Most analysis focuses on narrow issues
This analysis shows that you need a proper understanding of domestic, regional and global concerns
What we can learn from this case can help us to understand other historical casesSlide6
Argument: Convergence of Three Events in 1979
Census
Insurgency in Afghanistan
Revolution in IranSlide7
1979 Soviet CensusRevealed two important developments in the make up the population of the Soviet Union:Slavic populations were declining, particularly among males
Muslims in Central Asia were largely responsible for population growth—three to four times higher—and mostly in rural areasSlide8
Civil War in Afghanistan Created concerns of a domino effect in demonstrating a failure to support communist alliesSuch concerns were intensified by the make-up of the opposition—Islamist insurgents, who were seen as natural allies and potentially destabilizing to the Union’s peripheral populationSlide9
Revolution in IranRevolutionary regime based in IslamCommitted to exporting its revolutionary ideasEquated the Soviet Union with the United States as “satanic powers”
Seen as a threat to Soviet southern periphery population by MuslimsSlide10
ImplicationsDemography can be a critical feature in informing key strategic decisions in a stateUnderstanding the centrality of demography —for a state that was highly bureaucratic and technocratic—helps to explain why it reacted the way it did to the civil war in Afghanistan and revolution in Iran
Theories that stress only external dynamics or economics miss critical internal social and political dynamics that may better explain the play of events, and perhaps death of state