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S Weather Bureau Washington D C manuscript received November 4 1954 revised October 7 19551 ABSTRACT The search for causes of the rising temperatures in some geographic areas during the twentieth century has directed interest toward the amount of at

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TWENTIETH CENTURY? 1954; revised some geographic 226 450 440 - - 430 - E - :420 - 410 - $400 - 390 - E 310 - 320 a - F 330 - ,340 - 350 - ,360 - 370 - 380 - W To Glueokauf’s values (+) have been added those 500 observations observations Kreutz (K) 25,000 observations observations ’latest esti- mate, 1949 (C) [9]; and the means derived in the the used his observed values, values, who, in 1952, determined the C12/C13 ratio in tree ring samples. He found evidence younger samples he suggests, “carbon dioxide dioxide that the total “Carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere may be increasing, or at least may not be in equilibrium with the oceans.” Dingle Dingle by phys- ical reasoning, reasoning, has stated that, “There can be little doubt that during the first half of the twentieth century the mean CO, content of the air in north temperate latitudes has increased.” Callendar however, been Callendar delivered delivered Mr. J. H. Coste suggested measurements Callendar cited. asked, since average value Callendar found for fuel in increasing Callendar does slight increase compensate for for suggests that with the ex- spansion of industry through the past century, agriculture also expanded, and that there is a far greater opportunity for loss loss in discussing Callendar’s localities over limited period general atmospheric circulation more attrac- physical hypothesis Callendar’s thesis prepared for publication, publication, 261 have become available. He cites the fact that fossil carbon does not contain appreci- able C1*, and presents evidence decreased slightly since the is, however, greatest ~~ ~~~~ ~ earth's atmosphere with artificial one percent." percent." evidence from been suggested be shown Such dilution occur whether atmosphere be remaining approximately therefore, most them, he either up whatever compensating either direction is, physical is necessarily in- dependence on with which Buch's averages increase in much larger averages for time, place, conditions, etc., question remains, measurements which Callendar, accepts Callendar's selection selection bases his Callendar's results, his corroboration necessarily confirmatory. Since Callendar, basing his hypotheses his procedure, using only available, rejecting general principle, often intro- given average bias added contribution be selected means, there extreme values belong to spurious accuracy these considerations, available measurements some value. value. has compiled what seems to be a fairly complete list of the published observations 228 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW OC~OBEB 1965 Symbol Period of Location Observatians C% content of atmosphere (parts per million) Min. Mean b5x. 1816-1827 France * 1844 Prussia v 0 1866-1879 45"N, 30"W 1866-1879 Greenland V 1866-1879 England Q 1866-1879 England v V 1866-1879 France 1866-1879 France P 1866-1879 Germany V 1866-1879 Germany V 1866-1879 Austria v 1866-1879 Switzerland V 1866-1879 France V 1866-1879 France o 1880-1889 Belgium Q 1880-1889 E. Baltic 0 1880-1889 France No. of as. " " 4 I 26 3 80 53 1,034 89 341 295 " " " 266 525 1,000 C% content of atmosphere Min. Mean Max. (parts per million) Symbol 370 210 V 410 310 296 210 0 640 0 -- 550 " 270 4 80 0 400 420 o 410 620 -- 0 270 2 92 350 V 270 292 291 " 350 210 330 300 420 210 340 410 0 330 420 0 " 410 " 0 260 " 300 " 294 350 that have data available available has published a "Bibliography on been found tional, more these observations in these lowest values atmospheric concentration observational programs repre- sented. Where available, means were based, those selected Callendar. One Callendar selected his values mean values Callendar for observations used observations not not is in order of magnatude.] (after Effenberger [13] except as noted) Nineteenth Century (1816 to 1901) 287 289 270 291 290 292 300 300 292 282 320 294 3330 204 330 340 295 350 286 380 400 410 410 470 650 Means 292 363 Combined means 335 nented a Dorm- somalot data 460 b660 (1904 to 1935) (1936 to 1940) 1fW Twent.ieth Century - used b5 Means endar Call- T 303 318 320 324 311 317 ~ Means not used by Callendar I inacrm- too late Rejected Published etc. available 1 tobe I 303 419 334 DOCU- anomalous mented data [B] 6 480 b Observed on dags with snow . Observed on rainy days e Erogh's 1'72 data d Not listed & Effenberger. Cited by Callendar, but not included in his means nineteenth and for the twentieth centuries, and three categories of observations not used by him. Each value, as in figures 1 and 2, is a mean of a group of observations, varying from 3 to about 25,000. Figure 3 shows the majority of these determinations grouped in another way. Here, the means of the sets of observations, for each principal regions where shown for: including Germany, Austria-Hungary, each mean, observational program continued. seen from values which observers themselves mean value values for two periods is, accident. Referring from one synoptic data-gathering programs were conducted techniques. There - East Baltic States, denotes length segment in and showing observations than all other points and basis for claim, based remained anywhere near recent trend Callendar rejected those he accepted. observations improved too high these properties. values for Callendar rejected average he considers Since techniques observations should be be and Ereutz [21] found values respectively, from observations bases his reasonably large his techniques herein listed observing programs warm years some densely Hemisphere regions regions and elsewhere. Can we be entirely sure that the earth as a whole has warmed up enough to require an increase in C02 in the air to explain it? At any rate, it is apparent that, if we use the statistical approach, different seems to depend carbon dioxide creasing significantly, remaining decreasing slightly, chemist critically Callendar’s thesis. positive evidence ripe for new research. been assembled, old observations be re- proves impracticable, basis for comparison present available, cause ascertained, be valid increasing. Meanwhile, Callendar’s interest- speculatively minded. scientific progress suggestions. Similar Glenn Brier, American Meteorological Society (Malcolm Dioxide in California In- Technology Conference Trees: Observed Atmosphere been Changing?”, California Callendar, “Variations Dioxide Exchange Analytische Bestimmung deren hygienische Effenberger, “Messmethoden die Be- die Biomete- Atmospheric Air”, American Meteoro- Society, Boston, Goldschmidt, “Grundlagen Vortrage uber Abnormal Carbon Dioxide between Atmospheric Press, Chicago meeting, Washington, D. Suess, “Radiocarbon Dioxide between (Unpublished manuscript).