TAILWINDS CNUSD SBAC ELA Based on the of HW CNUSD SBAC Math Based on the of HW Growth Model Impact of the Education System Student Growth Starting Knowledge Education System Student Characteristics ID: 541902
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Slide1Slide2
HEADWINDS
TAILWINDSSlide3Slide4
CNUSD SBAC
ELA Based on the # of HWSlide5
CNUSD SBAC Math
Based on the # of HWSlide6
Growth Model Slide7
Impact
of the Education System
Student Growth
Starting Knowledge
Education System
Student Characteristics
Family Resources
Test CharacteristicsSlide8
Unpacking the MethodologySlide9
The Oak Tree AnalogySlide10
Gardener A
Gardener B
Growth
by
Gardener
Performance
For the past year, these gardeners have been tending to their oak trees trying to maximize the height of the trees.Slide11
This method is analogous to using an
Achievement Model
.
Gardener A
Gardener B
61 in.
72 in.
Measure
the Height of the Trees
After One Year
Using this method, Gardener B is the more effective gardener.Slide12
What is
missing to have a full picture of the gardener’s impact?Slide13
61 in.
72 in.
Gardener A
Gardener B
Oak A
Age 4
(Today)
Oak B
Age 4
(Today)
Oak A
Age 3
(1 year ago)
Oak B
Age 3
(1 year ago)
47 in.
52 in.
Achievement is
not the Whole Story
We need to find the starting
heightSlide14
This is analogous to a
Simple Growth (Gain) Model
.
61 in.
72 in.
Gardener A
Gardener B
Oak A
Age 4
(Today)
Oak B
Age 4
(Today)
Oak A
Age 3
(1 year ago)
Oak B
Age 3
(1 year ago)
47 in.
52 in.
+14 in.
+20 in.
Compare
Starting
and Ending
HeightSlide15
Gardener A
Gardener B
What About Factors
Influence Growth?
For
our
example
,
we will examine three environmental factors: Rainfall
,
Soil Richness
, and
Temperature
.Slide16
External
Condition
Oak Tree
A
Oak Tree B
Rainfall
Soil Richness
Temperature
High Low
Low High
High Low
Gardener A
Gardener BSlide17
Oak A
Age 3
(1 year ago)
Oak B
Age 3(1 year ago)
67 in.
74 in.
Gardener A
Gardener B
Oak A
Prediction
Oak B
Prediction
47 in.
52 in.
+22 Average
+20 Average
Initial
Prediction
for GrowthSlide18
70 in.
69 in.
Gardener A
Gardener B
47 in.
52 in.
+22 Average
+20 Average
+ 3 for Rainfall
- 5 for Rainfall
Adjusting
Predictions for RainfallSlide19
67 in.
71 in.
Gardener A
Gardener B
47 in.
52 in.
+22 Average
+20 Average
+ 3 for Rainfall
- 3 for Soil
+ 2 for Soil
- 5 for Rainfall
Adjusting for Soil RichnessSlide20
59 in.
76 in.
Gardener A
Gardener B
47 in.
52 in.
+22 Average
+20 Average
+ 3 for Rainfall
- 3 for Soil
+ 2 for Soil
- 8 for Temp
+ 5 for Temp
- 5 for Rainfall
Adjusting for TemperatureSlide21
+22 Average
+20 Average
+ 3 for Rainfall
- 3 for Soil
+ 2 for Soil
- 8 for Temp
+ 5 for Temp
_________+12 inchesduring the year
_________
+24 inches
during the year
59 in.
76 in.
Gardener A
Gardener B
47 in.
52 in.
- 5 for Rainfall
Leveling the
Playing FieldSlide22
This is analogous to a
Growth Model with Context Adjustments
Above
Average
Below AveragePredictedOak A
Predicted
Oak B
ActualOak AActual
Oak B
59 in.
76 in.
Gardener A
Gardener B
61 in.
72 in.
+2
-4
Compare Predicted
Height to
Actual
HeightSlide23
Gardener A
Every Tree Counts in this Group Measure
To statistically isolate a gardener’s effect, we need data from many trees under that gardener’s care.
Gardener BSlide24
Linking the Analogy to Reality
Outcome: growth of tree height in inchesOutcome: growth of student test score
Oak Tree Analogy
CORE Academic Growth Model
2015
Test Score
2016
Test Score
This Year
Height
Last Year
HeightSlide25
Linking the Analogy to Reality
Adjustments for:Starting HeightRainfallSoil RichnessTemperature
Adjustments for individual students and school average concentration:Prior test history (both Math and ELA)Economic disadvantaged statusDisability status (and severity level)English learner status
Homelessness statusFoster statusOak Tree AnalogyCORE Academic Growth ModelSlide26
Linking the Analogy to Reality
Average Growth
2015
Test Score
2016
Test Score
2015
Test Score
2016
Test Score
Student
Exceeded
Average Growth by 5 Points
Student
Did Not Meet
Average Growth
by 4 Points
Average Growth
Actual Score
Actual ScoreSlide27Slide28Slide29Slide30Slide31Slide32Slide33Slide34Slide35Slide36Slide37Slide38Slide39
SBAC 2016 ELA Elementary SchoolsSlide40
SBAC 2016 Math Elementary SchoolsSlide41
SBAC 2016 ELA Middle SchoolsSlide42
SBAC 2016 Math Middle SchoolsSlide43
SBAC 2016 ELA High SchoolsSlide44
SBAC 2016 Math High SchoolsSlide45
Next Steps
Every site has been provided with their own data – overall and by grade level
Cohort meetings are expected to be the catalyst to increase shared knowledge about best practices
School visits are encouraged to those sites that show growth faster than average
It is about collective learning – not about “naming, blaming, shaming” but, “uncovering, discovering, recovering.”