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Political Polls in New Zealand Political Polls in New Zealand

Political Polls in New Zealand - PowerPoint Presentation

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Uploaded On 2016-06-19

Political Polls in New Zealand - PPT Presentation

Dru Rose There are 6 main poll companies One News Colmar Brunton Herald DigiPoll 3 News Reid Research Herald on Sunday Key Research Roy Morgan Horizon Dru Rose Colmar Brunton ID: 368948

rose dru voters poll dru rose poll voters polls main preference key software sampling rdd vote horizon population parties undecided reid colmar

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Presentation Transcript

Slide1

Political Polls in New Zealand

Dru

RoseSlide2

There are 6 main poll companies:

One News

Colmar Brunton

Herald

DigiPoll

3 News Reid ResearchHerald on Sunday Key ResearchRoy MorganHorizon

Dru

RoseSlide3

Colmar

Brunton,

DigiPoll, Reid, Key and Roy Morgan use CATI

Computer

Assisted

TelephoneInterviewing

Dru

RoseSlide4

and RDD (

Random Digit Dialling)

Computer software randomly rings a household

with a landline telephone

. The interviewer asks to speak to the adult with the most recent birthday.

If that person is not at home, the CATI software usually programmes several re-calls over a 4-day period in an attempt to contact them.

Dru

RoseSlide5

Some form of

Stratified Sampling is used

which samples Geographic regions

Rural/urban

Gender

AgeIncome distributionEthnicity in approximately the same proportions as in the population

Dru

RoseSlide6

Non-Sampling errors

Selection bias

(RDD-landlines only) non-response/don’t know bias

The

5 main poll companies first exclude

non-voters and then those with no firm preference (undecided)Poll %s are for decided voters only(These polls usually produce predictions close to actual election results for the two main parties)

Dru

RoseSlide7

Horizon Poll

Horizon polls are

on-line.

People

are invited to join the

HorizonPoll national online research panel based on the profile of the population at the 2006 census.Large Sample size 1800+(to provide sufficient respondents from minor parties)Weight by age, gender, ethnicity, region, personal income

and party vote

(2011).Includes both decided voters and

undecided voters leaning towards a preference

called a

Net

Potential Vote

poll.

Dru

Rose