Dru Rose There are 6 main poll companies One News Colmar Brunton Herald DigiPoll 3 News Reid Research Herald on Sunday Key Research Roy Morgan Horizon Dru Rose Colmar Brunton ID: 368948
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Slide1
Political Polls in New Zealand
Dru
RoseSlide2
There are 6 main poll companies:
One News
Colmar Brunton
Herald
DigiPoll
3 News Reid ResearchHerald on Sunday Key ResearchRoy MorganHorizon
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RoseSlide3
Colmar
Brunton,
DigiPoll, Reid, Key and Roy Morgan use CATI
Computer
Assisted
TelephoneInterviewing
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RoseSlide4
and RDD (
Random Digit Dialling)
Computer software randomly rings a household
with a landline telephone
. The interviewer asks to speak to the adult with the most recent birthday.
If that person is not at home, the CATI software usually programmes several re-calls over a 4-day period in an attempt to contact them.
Dru
RoseSlide5
Some form of
Stratified Sampling is used
which samples Geographic regions
Rural/urban
Gender
AgeIncome distributionEthnicity in approximately the same proportions as in the population
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RoseSlide6
Non-Sampling errors
Selection bias
(RDD-landlines only) non-response/don’t know bias
The
5 main poll companies first exclude
non-voters and then those with no firm preference (undecided)Poll %s are for decided voters only(These polls usually produce predictions close to actual election results for the two main parties)
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RoseSlide7
Horizon Poll
Horizon polls are
on-line.
People
are invited to join the
HorizonPoll national online research panel based on the profile of the population at the 2006 census.Large Sample size 1800+(to provide sufficient respondents from minor parties)Weight by age, gender, ethnicity, region, personal income
and party vote
(2011).Includes both decided voters and
undecided voters leaning towards a preference
called a
Net
Potential Vote
poll.
Dru
Rose