Secret Codes in the Bible A Tale of Math Science Statistics and Psychic Ability Michael Drosnins 1997 book The biggest news of the millenium maybe of all human history even ID: 242407
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Slide1
The MACS Department Colloquium Secret Codes in the Bible: A Tale of Math, Science, Statistics and Psychic AbilitySlide2Slide3
Michael Drosnin’s 1997 book Slide4
“The biggest news of the millenium – maybe of all human history even” –The Baltimore SunSlide5Slide6
Equal Letter Skips (ELS)Start at the first letter of the first book of the Torah (the first five books of the bible) in Hebrew. It is the Hebrew equivalent of “T”Skip 49 letters (an important number in Judaism) to the 50th letter “O”. Skip another 49 to “R” and then again to “H”
It spells the Hebrew word for TorahSlide7
ELSTaking the text of the bible without spaces or punctuation, starting from any letter, and choosing any skip length (positive or negative) , the resulting word or message is called an Equal Letter Skip or ELS. First explored by 13th-century Spanish Rabbi Bachya ben
Asher. Became popular with advent of computers.Slide8
ELSs Appearing togetherVisualize by imagining writing the text in lines of a given length. Verticals and diagonals are ELSs.ELSs that appear in a small window together in this fashion are viewed as being connected to each otherSlide9
ELSs Appearing Together(e.g. from King James’s Genesis)Slide10
Witztum, Rips and Rosenberg, 1994, peer reviewed in Statistical Science, appeared to show bible codes predicted events that later came to pass.Drosnin, American reporter in Middle East, began looking for these codes. Found numerous predictions including… Slide11
Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated in 1995, as predicted by DrosninSlide12
Should we take this as evidence that there are predictions of future events encoded in the bible?How to we assess evidence in favor of a hypothesis?Slide13
A Simple ExampleIf I claimed to be a psychic, how would you assess my claim?Ask me to predict the result of a coin flip.Would you be convinced if I got 2 out of 3 right?How about 99 out of 100?Slide14
The First Principle of Hypothesis TestingTo measure how well your data supports a hypothesis ask “Suppose the hypothesis weren’t true, how likely would I be to see
data like yours?”
If it is very unlikely, since you did see
your data
, the supposition must be wrong, so this supports
this hypothesis.Slide15
Gary Larson CartoonSlide16
Chances of guessing rightIf I flip one coinI could guess it right (R) or wrong (W), and both are equally likely so
None right1/2
One right
1/2Slide17
Chances of guessing rightIf I flip two coinsFour possibilities RR, RW, W
R, WW
, all equally likely
One has me right twice, two have me right once, one has me right no times
None right
1/4
One right
1/2
Two right
1/4Slide18
Chances of guessing rightIf I flip three coinsNow there are eight possibilities
WWW
WW
R
W
R
W
R
WW
RR
W
R
W
R
W
RR
RRR
0 right
1/8
1 right
3/8
2 right
3/8
3 right
1/8Slide19
There is a pattern!
1
1/2
1/2
1/4
1/2
1/4
1/8
3/8
3/8
1/8Slide20
The pattern
1
1/2
1/2
1/4
1/2
1/4
1/8
3/8
3/8
1/8Slide21
The pattern
1
1/2
1/2
1/4
1/2
1/4
1/8
3/8
3/8
1/8Slide22
The pattern
1
1/2
1/2
1/4
1/2
1/4
1/8
3/8
3/8
1/8
Each number is the
average
of the two above it. Slide23
Why is that?Suppose you have 16 people each guess four coin flips. Stop after 3 flips and see how they are doingWe figured before…Slide24
On the first three flips2 of them will get none right
6 of the will get one right
6 of them
will get two right
2 of them will get three rightSlide25
On the next flip, half of each are right0 or 1 right
1 or 2 right
2 or 3 right
3 or 4 rightSlide26
1/16 + 3/16 =4/16 get 1 right
0 or 1 right
1 or 2 right
2 or 3 right
3 or
4 rightSlide27
So..Chance of 1 right out of 4 is ½ times chance of 0 right out of 3 + ½ times chance of 1 right out of 3
or
½ times
1/8
+ ½ times
3/8
or the
average
of 1/8 and 3/8
or 4/16Slide28
We can fill in the triangle now
1
1/2
1/2
1/4
2/4
1/4
1/8
3/8
3/8
1/8Slide29
We can fill in the triangle now
1
1/2
1/2
1/4
2/4
1/4
1/8
3/8
3/8
1/8
1/16Slide30
We can fill in the triangle now
1
1/2
1/2
1/4
2/4
1/4
1/8
3/8
3/8
1/8
1/16
3/16Slide31
We can fill in the triangle now
1
1/2
1/2
1/4
2/4
1/4
1/8
3/8
3/8
1/8
1/16
3/16
3/16Slide32
We can fill in the triangle now
1
1/2
1/2
1/4
2/4
1/4
1/8
3/8
3/8
1/8
1/16
3/16
6/16
6/16Slide33
And if we keep going…
1
1/2
1/2
1/4
2/4
1/4
1/8
3/8
3/8
1/8
1/16
3/16
6/16
6/16
6/16Slide34
…221 slides laterNumber Right
Percent
0
0.001%
1
0.013%
2
0.104%
3
0.519%
4
1.816%
5
4.721%
6
9.442%
7
14.838%
8
18.547%
9
18.547%
10
14.838%
11
9.442%
12
4.721%
13
1.816%
14
0.519%
15
0.104%
16
0.013%
17
0.001%Slide35