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The MACS Department Colloquium The MACS Department Colloquium

The MACS Department Colloquium - PowerPoint Presentation

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The MACS Department Colloquium - PPT Presentation


 Secret Codes in the Bible A Tale of Math Science Statistics and Psychic Ability Michael Drosnins 1997 book The biggest news of the millenium maybe of all human history even ID: 242407

times hypothesis triangle 163 hypothesis times 163 triangle fill letter 166 flip bible elss pattern skip right2 codes chance flips chances guessing

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Slide1

The MACS Department Colloquium 
 Secret Codes in the Bible: A Tale of Math, Science, Statistics and Psychic AbilitySlide2
Slide3

Michael Drosnin’s 1997 book Slide4

“The biggest news of the millenium – maybe of all human history even” –The Baltimore SunSlide5
Slide6

Equal Letter Skips (ELS)Start at the first letter of the first book of the Torah (the first five books of the bible) in Hebrew. It is the Hebrew equivalent of “T”Skip 49 letters (an important number in Judaism) to the 50th letter “O”. Skip another 49 to “R” and then again to “H”

It spells the Hebrew word for TorahSlide7

ELSTaking the text of the bible without spaces or punctuation, starting from any letter, and choosing any skip length (positive or negative) , the resulting word or message is called an Equal Letter Skip or ELS. First explored by 13th-century Spanish Rabbi Bachya ben

Asher. Became popular with advent of computers.Slide8

ELSs Appearing togetherVisualize by imagining writing the text in lines of a given length. Verticals and diagonals are ELSs.ELSs that appear in a small window together in this fashion are viewed as being connected to each otherSlide9

ELSs Appearing Together(e.g. from King James’s Genesis)Slide10

Witztum, Rips and Rosenberg, 1994, peer reviewed in Statistical Science, appeared to show bible codes predicted events that later came to pass.Drosnin, American reporter in Middle East, began looking for these codes. Found numerous predictions including… Slide11

Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated in 1995, as predicted by DrosninSlide12

Should we take this as evidence that there are predictions of future events encoded in the bible?How to we assess evidence in favor of a hypothesis?Slide13

A Simple ExampleIf I claimed to be a psychic, how would you assess my claim?Ask me to predict the result of a coin flip.Would you be convinced if I got 2 out of 3 right?How about 99 out of 100?Slide14

The First Principle of Hypothesis TestingTo measure how well your data supports a hypothesis ask “Suppose the hypothesis weren’t true, how likely would I be to see

data like yours?”

If it is very unlikely, since you did see

your data

, the supposition must be wrong, so this supports

this hypothesis.Slide15

Gary Larson CartoonSlide16

Chances of guessing rightIf I flip one coinI could guess it right (R) or wrong (W), and both are equally likely so

None right1/2

One right

1/2Slide17

Chances of guessing rightIf I flip two coinsFour possibilities RR, RW, W

R, WW

, all equally likely

One has me right twice, two have me right once, one has me right no times

None right

1/4

One right

1/2

Two right

1/4Slide18

Chances of guessing rightIf I flip three coinsNow there are eight possibilities

WWW

WW

R

W

R

W

R

WW

RR

W

R

W

R

W

RR

RRR

0 right

1/8

1 right

3/8

2 right

3/8

3 right

1/8Slide19

There is a pattern!

1

1/2

1/2

1/4

1/2

1/4

1/8

3/8

3/8

1/8Slide20

The pattern

1

1/2

1/2

1/4

1/2

1/4

1/8

3/8

3/8

1/8Slide21

The pattern

1

1/2

1/2

1/4

1/2

1/4

1/8

3/8

3/8

1/8Slide22

The pattern

1

1/2

1/2

1/4

1/2

1/4

1/8

3/8

3/8

1/8

Each number is the

average

of the two above it. Slide23

Why is that?Suppose you have 16 people each guess four coin flips. Stop after 3 flips and see how they are doingWe figured before…Slide24

On the first three flips2 of them will get none right

6 of the will get one right

6 of them

will get two right

2 of them will get three rightSlide25

On the next flip, half of each are right0 or 1 right

1 or 2 right

2 or 3 right

3 or 4 rightSlide26

1/16 + 3/16 =4/16 get 1 right

0 or 1 right

1 or 2 right

2 or 3 right

3 or

4 rightSlide27

So..Chance of 1 right out of 4 is ½ times chance of 0 right out of 3 + ½ times chance of 1 right out of 3

or

½ times

1/8

+ ½ times

3/8

or the

average

of 1/8 and 3/8

or 4/16Slide28

We can fill in the triangle now

1

1/2

1/2

1/4

2/4

1/4

1/8

3/8

3/8

1/8Slide29

We can fill in the triangle now

1

1/2

1/2

1/4

2/4

1/4

1/8

3/8

3/8

1/8

1/16Slide30

We can fill in the triangle now

1

1/2

1/2

1/4

2/4

1/4

1/8

3/8

3/8

1/8

1/16

3/16Slide31

We can fill in the triangle now

1

1/2

1/2

1/4

2/4

1/4

1/8

3/8

3/8

1/8

1/16

3/16

3/16Slide32

We can fill in the triangle now

1

1/2

1/2

1/4

2/4

1/4

1/8

3/8

3/8

1/8

1/16

3/16

6/16

6/16Slide33

And if we keep going…

1

1/2

1/2

1/4

2/4

1/4

1/8

3/8

3/8

1/8

1/16

3/16

6/16

6/16

6/16Slide34

…221 slides laterNumber Right

Percent

0

0.001%

1

0.013%

2

0.104%

3

0.519%

4

1.816%

5

4.721%

6

9.442%

7

14.838%

8

18.547%

9

18.547%

10

14.838%

11

9.442%

12

4.721%

13

1.816%

14

0.519%

15

0.104%

16

0.013%

17

0.001%Slide35