S Sitch P Friedlingstein A Ahlström A Arneth G Bonan P Canadell F Chevallier P Ciais C Huntingford C D P Levy M R Lomas B Mueller M Reichstein S Running S I Seneviratne ID: 426151
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "DGVM runs for Trendy/RECCAP" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1
DGVM runs for Trendy/RECCAP
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, A. Ahlström, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, P. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P.
Ciais,
C. Huntingford
,
C.
D., P
. Levy, M. R. Lomas,
B
. Mueller, M. Reichstein, S. Running, S. I. Seneviratne,
N
.
Viovy,
F. I. Woodward, S. Zaehle, M. ZhaoSlide2
Modelled Natural CO
2 Sinks
Le
Quéré
et al. 2009, Nature-
geoscienceSlide3
Global Annual Budget
Regional Trends in Land C-Sinks (Trendy)Compare DGVM-based estimates with other evidence- Satellite derived data- Fluxtower
data- Atmospheric Monitoring Stations
Regional Trends in C-sinks and Annual Global BudgetSlide4
GCP- Land trends: modelling protocol
Contact: Stephen Sitch (
s.sitch@leeds.ac.uk) & Pierre Friedlingstein (
p.friedlingstein@exeter.ac.uk) http://dgvm.ceh.ac.uk
Goal:
To investigate the trends in NEE over the period 1980-2009
Participating models
JULES, LPJ, LPJ-GUESS, O-CN,
Orchidee
, HyLand, SDGVM, NCAR-CLM4, GFDL/Princeton, VEGASModel simulationsThe models were forced over the 1901-2009 period with changing CO2, climate (CRU/NCEP) and land use:S1: CO2 onlyS2: CO2 and climateS3 (optional): CO2, climate and land use
Trendy ProtocolSlide5
Land Source trend
positive NPP trend < positive RESP trend negative NPP trend < negative RESP trend negative NPP trend, positive RESP trend
Land Sink trend
positive NPP trend > positive RESP trend
negative NPP trend > negative RESP trend
positive NPP trend, negative RESP trend
Trends in Land ProcessesSlide6
Land Sink trend
positive NPP trend > positive RESP trend
negative NPP trend > negative RESP trend
positive NPP trend, negative RESP trend
Land Source trend
positive NPP trend < positive RESP trend
negative NPP trend < negative RESP trend
negative NPP trend, positive RESP trend
Climatic Drivers of
Trends in Land ProcessesSlide7
B. Mueller, ETH Zurich
Satellite Evidence: Trends in Soil MoistureSlide8
Remarkable Similarity between NPP evolution from DGVMsSlide9
Global NPP explains most of the NEE variabilitySlide10
DGVM sink vs
MODIS-NPP
M Zhao Slide11
Alternative Upscaling Approaches Multidimensional flux patterns...
Color: GPP
... models to be cross-evaluated against.
Reichstein
remote sensing
of CO
2
Temporal scale
Spatial scale [km]
hourdayweekmonthyeardecade
century
local 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10 000 global
forest
inventory
plot
Countries
EU
plot/site
tall
tower
obser-
vatories
Forest/soil inventories
Eddy
covariance
towers
Landsurface remote sensingSlide12
JJAStippled areas > 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Future Precipitation Changes (Summer Droughts?)Slide13
Use set-up to produce global/regional annual C-budgets
Drought may be an important driver of the present-day trends in the land carbon cycleClimate Models Project Summer Drought in Continental RegionsDrought may be an important driver of the future trends in the land carbon cycle
Critical to understand Ecosystem Response to Drought for future Earth System feedbacks
Summary