Matt Bisogno Introduction Matt Who Online since 2006 wwwGeegeezcouk wwwHorseRacingExpertscouk wwwHorseRacingie wwwOnlineBettingExposedcom wwwFootballBettingSystemcom ID: 623493
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Slide1
How To Build Killer Betting Systems
Matt BisognoSlide2
Introduction: Matt Who?!
Online since 2006
www.Geegeez.co.uk
www.HorseRacingExperts.co.uk www.Horse-Racing.ie www.OnlineBettingExposed.com www.FootballBettingSystem.com www.Laying-System.com (sold out currently)www.MattBisogno.com Sponsored the Listed geegeez.co.uk Alleged Stakes last weekend (St Nicholas Abbey's race)I love betting systems! Slide3
What is a Betting System?
16 definitions of ‘system’ on Dictionary.com!
So a betting system is an ordered assemblage of facts and principles in the field of betting. Slide4
Where do I start?
An
existing product or service
became TTSSmartersig or other similar publicationsA ‘hunch’ (see my example at the end of this webinar)Read racing books (Tip: try to find overseas books, as their ideas are different and often equally relevant)Form analysisA website like raceadvisor or geegeez
Watching racing, and listening to smart racing presenters (i.e. Racing UK, not Channel 4!)Your own existing figures (speed, pace, handicap ratings, etc)Slide5
Free or 'nearly free' options
www.RacingPost.com
(e.g. trainers) http://adrianmassey.com (free, no data updates from mid-March 2011) www.HorseRaceBase.com (donation) www.pjmracing.co.uk (very cheap tools) www.football-data.co.uk (free)Slide6
A word (or three) on 'back-fitting'
-
ALL
systems are back fitted (including weather forecasting, share trading, forex brokers, and insurance quote systems!) - It's NOT a bad thing (in or of itself) - This has incorrectly been called 'back fitting‘ by a lot of people - Wikipedia has this explanation of 'back fitting' - pick the bones out of that! ;-) - What IS bad is when people use totally illogical parameters in their systems (remember our definition?)Slide7
Rules of T
humb for betting systems
- Start with a strong premise and a big enough sample size (the data WILL get whittled down)
- Be able to justify why each rule has been included in your system (sound logic please!) - Don't be put off if it takes a little while to get some ‘traction’ (if at first you don’t succeed etc) - Test on recent years (excluding the most recent complete season) - Don’t be afraid to be contrarian (that’s where the money is!)Slide8
What is a good return from a betting system?
It depends... !
- First, how do we measure return? ROI? Profit? - Based on level of risk, number of bets, effort to identify selections, and so on - In other words, it depends on YOU - Ask yourself what kind of system best suits your make up (psychologically, financially, time-wise, etc).Slide9
Theory into Practical…
An example...
The premise
: under-rated (over-priced) favourites … we know that overall 30% of favourites win, so let’s try to find a system which is profitable and has short losing runs due to playing at the top end of the market…Let’s head on over to Adrian Massey’s site…Slide10
The ‘Forgotten Favourites’ System
- Favourite or Joint Favourite (UK flat racing only)
- Sellers, Claimers and Amateur Rider races only - Class 5 and 6 races only1,038 winners from 2,780 runners (37.3% SR), and a profit of 288 points (110.4% ROI)[also a profit of 81.9 points at Industry SP]AND… A LOT OF FUN! Slide11
Questions?
Thanks a lot for ‘tuning in’ to my very first webinar.
I’d be happy to try to answer your questions now…
{I think I’m supposed to sell you something here, but rather embarrassingly I don’t have anything on offer! How about you just head on over to check out my website instead?}Matt Bisognowww.geegeez.co.uk