HoltonRevGeophysdrivenstratospheric ID: 181796
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StratosphericwatervapourclimateTedShepherdDepartmentMeteorologyUniversityReading HoltonRev.Geophys.)drivenstratosphericBrewerDobsoncirculationentersstratospherethroughcoldtropicaltropopause,wheredehydrated Mote cycletropicaltropopausetemperaturecausescycledehydration,imprintedwatervapourenteringstratosphere:watervapourtaperecorder(Mote Stratosphericwatervapourimportantgreenhousegastrendppmv/decadewasapparentlyobservedwouldhavesurfacewarmingthatwasthatfromStratosphericcoolingmaximizeslowerstratosphere,stronglatitudinalstructure;resultsfromrelativelylowcomparedMaycock,QJRMS) Forster Increasesstratosphericwatervapourarepredictedtroposphericcirculationchanges,DJFchangesstratosphericdrivencirculationHereforsurfacetemperaturechanges Maycock arguedthatincreasePolarStratosphericcouldsignificantlyArcticamplification,mayhaveimportantEoceneWouldresultfromincreasedstratosphericwatervapourwarmertropicaltropopause,togethercolderstratospherictemperaturesclimateherevery Davidoff,SchragAnderson Observedlowerstratosphericwatervapourshowsratherinterestingbehaviourrecentdecades Chapter Satellitelowerstratospherictropicalwatervapour(red)followtemperaturedecadaltimescales,apparenttrendlastyears Hegglinsubmitted Lowerstratosphericextratropicalwatervapourfollowtropicaltropopausetemperaturequiteclosely,decadalvariabilitycomesfromentryvaluesHegglinsubmitted Chemistryclimategenerallypredictincreasedstratosphericwatervapourentryvaluesfromclimatechange,performanceTTLreliableCCMValfromGettelman HALOEsatelliteobservations structureinfraredcoolingratesaroundtropopausequitecomplicated,differingfordifferentgases Iacono Newtoniancoolingreasonableapproximationmoststratosphere,tropicallowerstratosphereScattertemperaturelongwavecoolingratestropicallowerstratosphere(left);fractionvarianceexplainedlocaltemperature(right) Hitchcock,ShepherdYodenJAS) coupledresponseradiativechangesCFCs(right)expectedwarmingtropicallowerstratosphere(left,fromcalculation) ForsterChange)McLandresssubmitted OverCFCscomparableeffectstratosphericwatervapourthatforsurfacewarming),ozonethroughstrengthenedtropicalupwellingImplicationsforpastfuture McLandresssubmitted strengthenedBrewerDobsoncirculationcanrobustlyexpectedfromtroposphericwarming,fromRossbycriticallevelssubtropicaljet simulations,fromShepherdMcLandressJAS)Observedclimatology,fromJAS)convergence Together,coolingfromlowerstratosphericwatervapourincreasesozonedecreasesmoreoffsetswarmingfromCFCs(figuresinstantaneoustropicalheatingrates)Watervapourozonefeedbacksareimportantresponse(right) McLandresssubmitted Stratosphericwatervapourimportantforclimatejustradiativeforcing,troposphericcirculationMostimportantregionlowerstratosphere,wheredrivertropicaltropopausetemperature(dehydration)Significantvariabilityobserveddecadaltimescalespredicttermincreasefromclimatechange,robustnesspredictionradiativearoundtropicaltropopauseregioncomplex,fromWatervapourozonefeedbacksmoreoffsetexpectedlocalwarmingfromhalocarbonsWatervapourozonefeedbacksareimportantresponseShowsimportanceinteractiveozoneclimate variationvariationlowerstratospherictemperatureTropicaltemperaturesarelowestborealwinter,tropicalupwellingstrongest Yulaeva,HoltonWallaceJAS)temperature(approxhPa)Compensationbetweentropicsextratropicssuggests observationsrevealvariationsassociated RegressionDJFtemperatureontoindexstratosphericfeaturesmustdynamicallydrivenFree UpdatedfromJAS) FigureshowsinterannualtropicaltaperecorderHALOEmeasurementsfromUARSsatelliteTropicaltropopausetemperaturecontrolsstratosphericwatervapourinterannualtimescales McLandresssubmitted Spatialdistributionwatervapourlowermoststratospherequitedifferentfromthatlivedtracers,becauseroletropicaldehydrationShows(redfromACEFTS,screenedozonevaluesidentifystratosphericACP) NDJ RelationshipbetweenLagrangiancoldpointtemperatureentryvaluestratosphericwatervapour(left),reasonablyforyearyear(right) FueglistalerHaynes entryvaluestratosphericwatervapourcontrolledLagrangiancoldpointtemperature,locatedwesterntropicalPacificColoursarrowstemperatureshPacontoursPDFslocationdehydration Fueglistaler