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May 13, 2019 Employment Services Advisory Committee May 13, 2019 Employment Services Advisory Committee

May 13, 2019 Employment Services Advisory Committee - PowerPoint Presentation

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May 13, 2019 Employment Services Advisory Committee - PPT Presentation

Washingtons labor market amp Unemployment Insurance Trust fund Washingtons Labor market Washington has gained over 602700 jobs since the end of the recession Health services have created the most jobs since the recovery ID: 1030093

department employment security statistics employment department statistics security labor unemployment trust fund bureau state 2018 wits current lmpa months

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1. May 13, 2019Employment Services Advisory CommitteeWashington’s labor market& Unemployment Insurance Trust fund

2. Washington’s Labor marketWashington has gained over 602,700 jobs since the end of the recession.Health services have created the most jobs since the recovery.Divergent unemployment trends across the state.Unemployment rate tracking with U.S.

3. Nonfarm employment in WashingtonSource: Employment Security Department/WITS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted

4. Current Employment Statistics Year over year employment change by industrySource: Employment Security Department/WITS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted

5. Agricultural industry employment in Washington state5Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEWSource: Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW

6. Washington state agricultural reporting areas

7. Agricultural employment in Washington state and reporting areas7Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEWSource: Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW

8. Unemployment ratesSource: Employment Security Department/LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Current Population Survey. U.S. recessions are shaded in gray.

9. Unemployment around the stateSource: Employment Security Department/LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS not seasonally adjusted.

10. Employment ratesEmployment rates have been increasing slowly since 2014Source: Employment Security Department/LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics – Seasonally Adjusted. U.S. recessions are shaded in gray.

11. Beyond the unemployment rateAlternative measures of labor underutilizationSource: Employment Security Department/LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Alternative measures of labor underutilization by state, 2017 and 2018 annual averages.

12. Washington’s Unemployment Insurance Trust fundAs of April 30, 2019, the Washington state Unemployment Insurance (UI) trust fund ending balance was $4.49 billion. Unemployment benefit payments for the 12 months ending September 2018 totaled $947 million. Revenues generated to fund for the 12 months ending September 2018 totaled $1.1 billion. Based upon current economic conditions, it is projected that the UI trust balance will remain solvent, with the months of benefits available in the fund projected to be between 15.7 and 16.4 months of benefits.

13. Unemployed BeneficiariesUnemployment recipients down to historical lowSource: Employment Security Department/LMPA; Unemployment Insurance Data Warehouse

14. Unemployment benefit paymentsSource: Employment Security Department/WITS, November 2018 UI Trust Fund ForecastProjected

15. Average duration of benefits Source: Employment Security Department/WITS; U.S. Department of Labor, ETA 5159

16. Unemployment taxes Source: Employment Security Department/WITS, November 2018 UI Trust Fund ForecastProjected

17. Unemployment trust fund balance & months of benefitsSource: Employment Security Department/WITS, November 2018 UI Trust Fund ForecastProjected

18. Summary of State Trust Fund StatusAverage High Cost Multiple as of 1/1/2019

19. UI trust fund solvencyGreat Recession posed most serious challenge to UI financing in the system’s history36 states borrowed from the U.S. Treasury during the Great Recession to pay UI benefits from 2009 through 2013, totaling $93 billionThree states still have outstanding loans of $1.7 billionA large amount of states have not rebuild their trust funds from the last recessions and are unprepared for a recession

20. Continue the ConversationLabor Market Information Director Steven RossSteven.ross@ESD.WA.GOV