PPT-A Not-So-Quick Overview of Probability

William W Cohen Machine Learning 10605 Warmup Zenos paradox Lance Armstrong and the tortoise have a race Lance is 10x faster Tortoise has a 1m head start at time 0 0 1 So when Lance gets to 1m the tortoise is at 11m. Whats In The Box Installation and Network Settings CS648. . Lecture 3. Two fundamental problems. Balls into bins. Randomized Quick Sort. Random Variable and Expected . value. 1. Balls into BINS. Calculating probability of some interesting events. 2. GaramondThe quick brown fox jumped over the lazy dogThe quick brown fox jumped over the lazy dogThe quick brown fox jumped over the lazy dogInformal RomanMatisse ITCThe quick brown fox jumped over the Fill in Application Form. . 1. HA CRER Portal - Quick User Guide. Note to Users:. Fields mark with asterisk (*) . are mandatory . fields. User can use “Save” function to save the unfinished application for continuous action before submission. 3.1 . The Concept of Probability. 3.2 . Sample Spaces and Events. 3.3 . Some Elementary Probability Rules. 3.4 . Conditional Probability and Independence. 3.5 . Bayes’ Theorem. 3-. 2. Probability Concepts. What we learned last class…. We are not good at recognizing/dealing with randomness. Our “random” coin flip results weren’t streaky enough.. If B/G results behave like independent coin flips, we know how many families to EXPECT with 0,1,2,3,4 girls.. Probability. The study of the occurrence of random events or phenomena.. It does not deal with guarantees, but with the likelihood of an occurrence of an event.. Experiment:. - Any observation or measurement of a random phenomenon.. William W. Cohen. Machine Learning 10-605. Jan 19 2012. Probabilistic and Bayesian Analytics. Andrew W. Moore. School of Computer Science. Carnegie Mellon University. www.cs.cmu.edu/~awm. awm@cs.cmu.edu. Probability is used all of the time in real life. Gambling . Sports. Weather. Insurance. Medical Decisions. Standardized Tests. And others. Definition of Probability. “The . likelihood of something . Slide . 2. Probability - Terminology. Events are the . number. of possible outcome of a phenomenon such as the roll of a die or a fillip of a coin.. “trials” are a coin flip or die roll. Slide . A value between zero and one that describe the relative possibility(change or likelihood) an event occurs.. The MEF announces that in 2012 the change Cambodia economic growth rate is equal to 7% is 80%.. The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog. The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog. The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog. The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog. The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog. . Mixture of Transparencies created by:. Dr. . Eick. and Dr. Russel. Reasoning and Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Quick Review Probability Theory . Bayes’ Theorem and Naïve Bayesian Systems. Bayesian Belief Networks. 4. Interpret probability as a long-run relative frequency. . Dispel . common myths about randomness.. Use . simulation to model chance behavior.. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation.