The sGAIN energy model Stefan Schleicher Christian Hofer 4 March 2015 ClimTrans2050 We demonstrate the implementation of the envisaged deepened structural modeling approach with a fullscale and operational model for Austria ID: 656929
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Slide1
Implementing thedeepened structural modeling approach:The sGAIN energy model
Stefan SchleicherChristian Hofer4 March 2015
ClimTrans2050Slide2
We demonstrate the implementation of the envisaged deepened structural modeling approach with a full-scale and operational model for Austria
The parameters were chosen to achieve a 80 percent reduction of energetic CO2 emissions by 2050Slide3
How to develop a modeling frameworkfor the transition to low-energy and low-carbon structures?Slide4
The focus of analysis is on energy related functionalities, not on energy flows.
Parameters should be easily understood
as to their impacts.
Increasing energy productivity or changing the energy mix can be evaluated as to investment and operating effects.
This is in sharp contrast, e.g., to elasticities of substitution.
Instead of pretending predictable outcomes we offer insights how certain targets as emission reductions could be achieved by matching structural changes.Additional modeling layers deal with the interaction of other sectors of the economy and market and non-market driven incentives and institutional setups.
Some Design PrinciplesSlide5
Step 1Functionalities and useful energy productivitySlide6
Functionalities, Useful Energy ProductivitySlide7
Step 2Energy mix of useful energySlide8
Energy mix of Useful EnergySlide9
Functionalities and Useful Energy
Low temperature heat
High temperature heat
Stationary engines
Mobile engines
Lighting and electronics
Final Energy Consumption + Non-energetic energy consumption =
=
Net Final Energy Consumption
Functionality / Useful Energy Productivity =
= Useful Final EnergySlide10
Step 3Losses from distribution and own useSlide11
Distribution Losses and Gross Final Energy
Net Final Energy Consumption + Distribution Losses =
= Gross Final Energy Slide12
Step 5Distributing gross final energyinto transformed and untransformed final energySlide13
Untransformed and transformedGross Final Energy
Gross
Final
Energy (GFE) =
Transformed GFE + Untransformed GFE Slide14
Step 6Losses from energy transformationinto electricity and heatand other transformationsSlide15
Transformation of ElectricitySlide16
Transformation of HeatSlide17
Transformation LossesSlide18
Gross Energy SupplySlide19
The overall picture of a low-energy and low-carbon energy transformationSlide20
Functionalities, Useful Energy, and CO2 EmissionsSlide21
CO2 EmissionsSlide22
In view of radical emissions reductions, it is easer to increase energy efficiency than to expand massively renewables.
For a 80% reduction target the key issues are low-temperature functionalities of buildings and a major re-design of the functionalities related to mobility.
T
he remaining emissions reductions will hinge upon the options for the high-temperature functionalities.
Some Conclusions