DAY 3 Winners Redux SPC DAY 4 Forecast Verification time Perfect Forecast The Dr Titley residence one block from campus 82 Y 9 82 Y 9 35 35 DAY 4 Winners Lets talk about those temps ID: 763455
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DAY 3 Winners Redux = SPC
DAY 4 - Forecast Verification time! ? Perfect Forecast
The Dr. Titley residence (one block from campus) 82 Y 9
82 Y 9 3.5 3.5
DAY 4 Winners
Let’s talk about those temps …. This week … Monday: 77 Tuesday: 79 Wednesday: 71 Thursday: 82 TEMPS Avg./mean: 81 CLIMATOLOGY Median: Range: 82 90 - 68Std. dev .7
Let’s talk about the clouds = Sat imagery Conduction Convection Buoyancy Daytime heating = Cloud maker Large-scale subsidence = Cloud killer 500 mb analysis = Thurs. evening
RH Calculator Relative Humidity – How close the air is to saturation - Varies between? (X and Y %) - If in a cloud ….. RH = ? Dew Point – Absolute humidity (how much H20 v) T = 85 D = 65 RH = 51% What do we need to do to T and/or D to produce a cloud ?
500 mb analysis = Thurs. evening
Tornado Climatology – Whisker plots
Air Mass Large volume of air with certain Temp and Moisture Characteristics Continental Tropical, Maritime Tropical, Continental Polar, Maritime Polar
Maritime Tropical Continental Tropical Maritime Polar Continental Polar
Summer - DayT = 105 TD = 38T = 67 TD = 58 T = 77 TD = 45T = 93 TD = 76 Winter- Day T = 15 TD = -5 T = 72 TD = 65T = 72 TD = 20 T = 38 TD = 33 Maritime Tropical Continental Tropical Maritime Polar Continental Polar
Let’s talk about the rain …. Our forecast period
CLIMATOLOGY
THIS EVENING – 500MB SPC
Z = EDT 12z=8 am 18z=2 pm 00z=8pm 06z=? 500 mb map- GFS model. Valid 8 p.m. TUESDAY
H SPC TUE EVENING – SURFACE MAP
H WED EVENING – SURFACE MAP SPC
Tuesday Wednesday mid 70s – mid 80s Upp 6 0s – upp 70s SPC
THIS EVENING – 500MB
H L THIS EVENING – SFC map
Penn State Weather CampsBasic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS – SPC - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar E-WALL - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - ltg
DEW POINT TEMP TODAY ( 2PM – 8 PM EDT) SPC
THIS EVENING – 700MB RH
ACCUM PRECIP – 18Z TO 00Z (2 PM – 8 PM)
Joe Schmo 90 Y 3.50” PA
WHAT IS CLIMATOLOGY ? How the weather behaves over a long period of time. Weather – Behavior of the atmospheric over a much shorter period of time
TEMPSAvg./mean: 81 RAIN Avg./Mean: Range: % time: 0.15” 0-1.79” 43% CLIMATOLOGYMedian:Range: 82 90 - 68 Std. dev . 7 30 year period - common NORMAL? Conforming to a regular pattern; typical 60’s = 70’s = 80’s = 90’s = 2 8 18 2
WHAT IS PERSISTENCE ?ASSUMES NO CHANGE ! WHAT HAPPENED … WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN
Climatology Forecast Persistence Forecast Key West Chicago CLI 88 80 6/17 88 93 6/18 86 95 6/19 89 81 6/20 90 77 6/21 87 67 6/22 89 646/23 90 81AVG ERR. 1.3 9 Key West Chicago 6/17 88 936/18 -2 +26/19 +3 -146/20 +1 -46/21 -3 -106/22 +2 -36/23 +1 +17 AVG ERR. 2 9
PSU SNOWFALL
Penn State Weather CampsBasic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS – SPC - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar E-WALL - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - ltg
Traditional 4-Panel Model Output 500 mb 700 mb SLP map + THK Accumulate Precip
Upper Level Map (i.e. 500mb) Balance between 2 forces …. Pressure Gradient + ??
SURFACE PRESSURE (SLP) ? ? ?
Geostationary Satellite 22,000 miles above equator
De donde son ustedes ?
L H JET STREAM This Afternoon 500 mb (~18,000 feet)
H H JET STREAM – LATER THIS WEEK L
Basic Forecast Guidelines - TEMP Cause of temperature to change : S unshine?Wind direction?
WX CAMP - ForecastingLocation – STATE COLLEGE TEMP – PRECIP – SKY COVER 90F YES ?
Joe Smith 81 8 Yes
Basic Forecast Guidelines What causes rain ? Need clouds !Will any ole cloud do?MoistureBodies of water – Moisture content of air
NORMAL Conforming to a standard; usual, typical, or expected.
Basic Forecast Guidelines What causes temperature to change ? How much sunshine? How much precipitation?Wind direction?
Basic Forecast Guidelines Extrapolation = Look upstream to see what’s coming!Sat IR - Sat II - Sat VIS - Radar - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3
Basic Forecast Guidelines The “Models” What are they? The “Models” Lower Res. (GFS) Higher Res. (GFS ) Higher Res. (NAM) Higher Res. (HRRR)MOS - Statistical guidance
TROF AVIS TROF AVIS PA
Cyclogenesis
E-WALL - clouds MOS - clouds RH at 700 mb 18z WED
SFC Temperature Forecasting Techniques Climatology Persistence Modified Persistence Models 2 meter temp output MOS (statistical)
Basic Forecast Guidelines Climatology Forecast = averages for today Persistence Forecast = yesterday’s values Modified Persistence = Persistence + Any changes
Nighttime infrared satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with the low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better defined. However, the system is struggling to maintain organized convection near the center, andthe radius of maximum winds remains large. Based on this, the system is still maintained as a potential tropical cyclone.
The low is moving erratically northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge located over the western Atlantic and Florida . The large-scale models suggest this ridge will strengthen some during the next 36 hours or so and cause the low to turn a little more westward. This would be followed by a northward turn around the western end of the ridge and eventual recurvature into the westerlies . Overall, there has been a left shift of the track guidance models since the previous advisory. The new forecast track is also shifted left, but it is to the right of the modelconsensus, especially at 36-48 h. Given the nature of the circulation, though, and the fact that the wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged to not focus on the details of the track forecast.
The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on partial scatterometer overpasses and continuity from the previous advisory. Significant strengthening is unlikely due to strong vertical shear caused by an upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and entrainment of dry air into the system. However, the large-scale models suggest slight strengthening before landfall, and thus the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. One change from the previous advisory is that it now appears more likely that the system would become a subtropical cyclone rather t han a tropical cyclone due to the current structure of the low and interaction with the aforementioned trough. That being said, development into a tropical cyclone remains possible. The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 20/0900Z 24.8N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/1800Z 25.7N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/0600Z 26.6N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 27.5N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 28.9N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 32.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
Our friends …. Storms Prediction Center
NAM MODEL – 4 panel map Valid at 8 a.m. (12z) YESTERDAY
NAM MODEL – 500 mb . map Valid 8 a.m. (12z) YESTERDAY H L H Ridge Trough
NAM MODEL – SFC map Valid 8 a.m. (12z) YESTERDAY
NAM MODEL – SFC map Valid 8 P.M. (00z) YESTERDAY
LIFTED INDEX Valid 2 P.M. (18z) YESTERDAY
5 a.m. (09z)
NAM MODEL – 4 panel map Valid at 2 p .m. (18z)
NAM MODEL – sfc map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z)
NAM MODEL – 500 mb Valid at 2 p .m. (18z) L Trough axis
LIFTED INDEX Valid 2 P.M. (18z) TODAY
Penn State Weather CampsBasic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III – Sat WV - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3
NAM MODEL – Precip. mapTotals (2 pm – 8 pm) (18z – 00z) GFS MODEL – Precip . map Totals (2 pm – 8 pm) (18z – 00z)
NAM MODEL – Precip. mapTotals (2 pm – 8 pm) (18z – 00z) GFS MODEL – Precip . map Totals (2 pm – 8 pm) (18z – 00z)
SURFACE PRESSURE ? ? ? ? ?
SURFACE PRESSURE
Warm Sector vs. Cool Sector
MOS – Model Output S …Accu Friends Wx Channel Friends NWS Friends
Know what to expect! = Climo. RH RL NH NL
Big Picture …. Then details Soundings ? Model soundings Other fun output Meteograms
Big Picture …. Then details Temps + Clouds Soundings – What are these? Model soundings Other fun outputMeteograms