CPT Cardy Moten III USA LT Volkan Sozen Turkish Army Outline Background Problem Assumptions Model Overview Results Further Research Questions Background Pierce County Mount Rainier ID: 273085
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Mount Rainier Evacuation Plan" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1
Mount Rainier Evacuation Plan
CPT Cardy Moten III, USALT Volkan Sozen, Turkish ArmySlide2
Outline
BackgroundProblemAssumptionsModel OverviewResultsFurther ResearchQuestionsSlide3
Background
Pierce County
Mount Rainier
Lahars
Volcanic Mudflows
Can
occur with or without an eruptionExamplesMount Saint Helens (1980)Columbia (1985)Africa (2012)Slide4
Background
Impact
Major residential areas inhabitable
Portions of I-5 and other state roads inaccessible
Port of Tacoma
75% of goods for Eastern and Central US
70% of consumer goods for AlaskaSlide5
Problem
Short term (No Eruption)
Early warning from lahar detection system only
Analyze total number not evacuated
Given:
2 hours
43,395 vehiclesVarying lahar travel timesSlide6Slide7
Problem
Long term
(Eruption)
Analyze total
required evacuation time
Given:
727,635 evacueesVarious warning horizons
Same evacueesSlide8Slide9
Simplifying Assumptions
All households have one vehicle for evacuationTotal passengers per vehicle was an average of fourTransportation routes will be utilized to max capacity with serious gridlock.
Some personnel will evacuate even if they aren’t in danger, causing an uptick in network utilization
.Slide10
Short-Term ScenarioSlide11
Network Overview
40
80
110
Lahar travel time in minutes from time of detectionSlide12
Mount Rainier
Greenwater
Enumclaw
Buckley
Wilkeson
Carbonado
Ashford
Elbe
Eatonville
Orting
Sumner
Graham
Mckenna
Yelm
Morton
Randle
Packwodd
Gig Harbor
Puyallup
Tacoma
Federal Way
Auburn
Kent
Renton
Seattle
Alder
Short Term Evacuation Scenario
Castle Rock
Safe Node
Transit Node
Evacuation Node
Lacey
Simplified Graph
Roadway
NSlide13
Long-Term ScenarioSlide14
Mount Rainier
Greenwater
Enumclaw
Buckley
Wilkeson
Carbonado
Ashford
Elbe
Eatonville
Orting
Sumner
Graham
Mckenna
Yelm
Morton
Randle
Packwodd
Gig Harbor
Puyallup
Tacoma
Federal Way
Auburn
Kent
Renton
Seattle
Alder
Castle Rock
Lacey
Roadway
NSlide15
Mount Rainier
Greenwater
Enumclaw
Buckley
Wilkeson
Carbonado
Ashford
Elbe
Eatonville
Orting
Sumner
Graham
Mckenna
Yelm
Morton
Randle
Packwodd
Gig Harbor
Puyallup
Tacoma
Federal Way
Auburn
Kent
Renton
Seattle
Alder
Long Term Evacuation Scenario
Castle Rock
Safe Node
Transit Node
Evacuation Node
Lacey
Simplified Graph
Roadway
NSlide16
Model Overview
Modeled for min cost flow
Used time layered format
Only major state and interstate roads for edges
Considered lahar reach time for each city
End
Time = n
Time = n+1
Time = n+2
C,0,UB
0
,0,
∞
1
,0,
∞Slide17
Model Overview
Values on edges are (C,LB,UB):
C = Travel times
Lower Bound(LB) = 0
Upper Bound(UB)=Edge capacity
30 vehicles for state roads
80 vehicles for interstateTotal population for end node
End
Time = n
Time = n+1
Time = n+2
C,0,UB
0
,0,
∞
1
,0,
∞Slide18
Congestion Slide19
Model Overview
Short-term evacuation graph (small model)80 time layers6,247 nodes14,118 edges
Long-term evacuation graph(large model)
1000 time
layers
80,081 nodes
295,486 edgesSlide20
Short-Term Evacuation Results w/o Interdicion
Undirected Travel LanesCould not evacuate a total of 13 cities.Percentage of households stranded was 45%
Network Design
Directed Travel Lanes
Met demand for all danger areas except 15% of Puyallup’s population
Not all of Puyallup’s citizens live near the Puyallup river
Recommend opposite traffic flow on 33 roads
Puyallup RiverSlide21
Mount Rainier
Greenwater
Enumclaw
Buckley
Wilkeson
Carbonado
Ashford
Elbe
Eatonville
Orting
Sumner
Graham
Mckenna
Yelm
Morton
Randle
Packwodd
Gig Harbor
Puyallup
Tacoma
Federal Way
Auburn
Kent
Renton
Seattle
Alder
Short Term Evacuation Scenario
Castle Rock
Safe Node
Transit Node
Evacuation Node
Lacey
Simplified Graph
Undirected Travel
Roadway
NSlide22
Mount Rainier
Greenwater
Enumclaw
Buckley
Wilkeson
Carbonado
Ashford
Elbe
Eatonville
Orting
Sumner
Graham
Mckenna
Yelm
Morton
Randle
Packwodd
Gig Harbor
Puyallup
Tacoma
Federal Way
Auburn
Kent
Renton
Seattle
Alder
Short Term Evacuation Scenario
Castle Rock
Safe Node
Transit Node
Evacuation Node
Lacey
Simplified Graph
Directed Travel
Roadway
NSlide23
Interdicted short-term plan
Two-way travel only
Attacks isolated personnel in:
Puyallup
Sumner
Interdiction Model ResultsSlide24Slide25Slide26Slide27Slide28Slide29Slide30Slide31
Long-Term Evacuation Results
No InterdictionTotal evacuation time is 15 hoursTotal-run time for the model took 24 minutesInterdiction
Best attack was to shut off route to Castle rock in the south
Total evacuation time is 16.1 hours
Total run-time for the model took 86 minutesSlide32
Mount Rainier
Greenwater
Enumclaw
Buckley
Wilkeson
Carbonado
Ashford
Elbe
Eatonville
Orting
Sumner
Graham
Mckenna
Yelm
Morton
Randle
Packwodd
Gig Harbor
Puyallup
Tacoma
Federal Way
Auburn
Kent
Renton
Seattle
Alder
Long Term Evacuation Scenario
Castle Rock
Safe Node
Transit Node
Evacuation Node
Lacey
Simplified Graph
Roadway
N
Block hereSlide33
Further Research
Emplace more roadblocks on the long-term scenarioConduct a fine-grain analysis on the short-term evacuation of PuyallupMinimize the evacuation of the last household to leave the regionSlide34
Data
Evacuation planning data extracted from the Pierce County Evacuation Plan (2008)Population data is from the US Census American Fact Finder website
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/
index.xhtml
Highway capacities estimated from thesis submitted by LCDR April
Malveo
(2013)Slide35
QUESTIONS?