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Mount Rainier Evacuation Plan Mount Rainier Evacuation Plan

Mount Rainier Evacuation Plan - PowerPoint Presentation

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Mount Rainier Evacuation Plan - PPT Presentation

CPT Cardy Moten III USA LT Volkan Sozen Turkish Army Outline Background Problem Assumptions Model Overview Results Further Research Questions Background Pierce County Mount Rainier ID: 273085

time evacuation term node evacuation time node term model puyallup short scenario travel total long mount rock graph castle

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Slide1

Mount Rainier Evacuation Plan

CPT Cardy Moten III, USALT Volkan Sozen, Turkish ArmySlide2

Outline

BackgroundProblemAssumptionsModel OverviewResultsFurther ResearchQuestionsSlide3

Background

Pierce County

Mount Rainier

Lahars

Volcanic Mudflows

Can

occur with or without an eruptionExamplesMount Saint Helens (1980)Columbia (1985)Africa (2012)Slide4

Background

Impact

Major residential areas inhabitable

Portions of I-5 and other state roads inaccessible

Port of Tacoma

75% of goods for Eastern and Central US

70% of consumer goods for AlaskaSlide5

Problem

Short term (No Eruption)

Early warning from lahar detection system only

Analyze total number not evacuated

Given:

2 hours

43,395 vehiclesVarying lahar travel timesSlide6
Slide7

Problem

Long term

(Eruption)

Analyze total

required evacuation time

Given:

727,635 evacueesVarious warning horizons

Same evacueesSlide8
Slide9

Simplifying Assumptions

All households have one vehicle for evacuationTotal passengers per vehicle was an average of fourTransportation routes will be utilized to max capacity with serious gridlock.

Some personnel will evacuate even if they aren’t in danger, causing an uptick in network utilization

.Slide10

Short-Term ScenarioSlide11

Network Overview

40

80

110

Lahar travel time in minutes from time of detectionSlide12

Mount Rainier

Greenwater

Enumclaw

Buckley

Wilkeson

Carbonado

Ashford

Elbe

Eatonville

Orting

Sumner

Graham

Mckenna

Yelm

Morton

Randle

Packwodd

Gig Harbor

Puyallup

Tacoma

Federal Way

Auburn

Kent

Renton

Seattle

Alder

Short Term Evacuation Scenario

Castle Rock

Safe Node

Transit Node

Evacuation Node

Lacey

Simplified Graph

Roadway

NSlide13

Long-Term ScenarioSlide14

Mount Rainier

Greenwater

Enumclaw

Buckley

Wilkeson

Carbonado

Ashford

Elbe

Eatonville

Orting

Sumner

Graham

Mckenna

Yelm

Morton

Randle

Packwodd

Gig Harbor

Puyallup

Tacoma

Federal Way

Auburn

Kent

Renton

Seattle

Alder

Castle Rock

Lacey

Roadway

NSlide15

Mount Rainier

Greenwater

Enumclaw

Buckley

Wilkeson

Carbonado

Ashford

Elbe

Eatonville

Orting

Sumner

Graham

Mckenna

Yelm

Morton

Randle

Packwodd

Gig Harbor

Puyallup

Tacoma

Federal Way

Auburn

Kent

Renton

Seattle

Alder

Long Term Evacuation Scenario

Castle Rock

Safe Node

Transit Node

Evacuation Node

Lacey

Simplified Graph

Roadway

NSlide16

Model Overview

Modeled for min cost flow

Used time layered format

Only major state and interstate roads for edges

Considered lahar reach time for each city

End

Time = n

Time = n+1

Time = n+2

C,0,UB

0

,0,

1

,0,

∞Slide17

Model Overview

Values on edges are (C,LB,UB):

C = Travel times

Lower Bound(LB) = 0

Upper Bound(UB)=Edge capacity

30 vehicles for state roads

80 vehicles for interstateTotal population for end node

End

Time = n

Time = n+1

Time = n+2

C,0,UB

0

,0,

1

,0,

∞Slide18

Congestion Slide19

Model Overview

Short-term evacuation graph (small model)80 time layers6,247 nodes14,118 edges

Long-term evacuation graph(large model)

1000 time

layers

80,081 nodes

295,486 edgesSlide20

Short-Term Evacuation Results w/o Interdicion

Undirected Travel LanesCould not evacuate a total of 13 cities.Percentage of households stranded was 45%

Network Design

Directed Travel Lanes

Met demand for all danger areas except 15% of Puyallup’s population

Not all of Puyallup’s citizens live near the Puyallup river

Recommend opposite traffic flow on 33 roads

Puyallup RiverSlide21

Mount Rainier

Greenwater

Enumclaw

Buckley

Wilkeson

Carbonado

Ashford

Elbe

Eatonville

Orting

Sumner

Graham

Mckenna

Yelm

Morton

Randle

Packwodd

Gig Harbor

Puyallup

Tacoma

Federal Way

Auburn

Kent

Renton

Seattle

Alder

Short Term Evacuation Scenario

Castle Rock

Safe Node

Transit Node

Evacuation Node

Lacey

Simplified Graph

Undirected Travel

Roadway

NSlide22

Mount Rainier

Greenwater

Enumclaw

Buckley

Wilkeson

Carbonado

Ashford

Elbe

Eatonville

Orting

Sumner

Graham

Mckenna

Yelm

Morton

Randle

Packwodd

Gig Harbor

Puyallup

Tacoma

Federal Way

Auburn

Kent

Renton

Seattle

Alder

Short Term Evacuation Scenario

Castle Rock

Safe Node

Transit Node

Evacuation Node

Lacey

Simplified Graph

Directed Travel

Roadway

NSlide23

Interdicted short-term plan

Two-way travel only

Attacks isolated personnel in:

Puyallup

Sumner

Interdiction Model ResultsSlide24
Slide25
Slide26
Slide27
Slide28
Slide29
Slide30
Slide31

Long-Term Evacuation Results

No InterdictionTotal evacuation time is 15 hoursTotal-run time for the model took 24 minutesInterdiction

Best attack was to shut off route to Castle rock in the south

Total evacuation time is 16.1 hours

Total run-time for the model took 86 minutesSlide32

Mount Rainier

Greenwater

Enumclaw

Buckley

Wilkeson

Carbonado

Ashford

Elbe

Eatonville

Orting

Sumner

Graham

Mckenna

Yelm

Morton

Randle

Packwodd

Gig Harbor

Puyallup

Tacoma

Federal Way

Auburn

Kent

Renton

Seattle

Alder

Long Term Evacuation Scenario

Castle Rock

Safe Node

Transit Node

Evacuation Node

Lacey

Simplified Graph

Roadway

N

Block hereSlide33

Further Research

Emplace more roadblocks on the long-term scenarioConduct a fine-grain analysis on the short-term evacuation of PuyallupMinimize the evacuation of the last household to leave the regionSlide34

Data

Evacuation planning data extracted from the Pierce County Evacuation Plan (2008)Population data is from the US Census American Fact Finder website

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/

index.xhtml

Highway capacities estimated from thesis submitted by LCDR April

Malveo

(2013)Slide35

QUESTIONS?