David Lehrer Advisors Prof Pua Bar Kutiel and Prof Nir Becker The aim of this study is to estimate the marginal cost function and marginal benefit function for nature conservation in Israel and to use these functions to build a supply curve for nature conservation in Israel ID: 533589
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Development of a cost efficient model fo..." is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1
Development of a cost efficient model for nature conservation in Israel
David Lehrer
Advisors
Prof Pua Bar Kutiel and Prof Nir BeckerSlide2
The aim of this study is to estimate the marginal cost function and marginal benefit function for nature conservation in Israel and to use these functions to build a supply curve for nature conservation in Israel.
Development of a cost efficient model for nature conservation in IsraelSlide3
[1]
Where;
Cost
is the cost of operating the PA, x1,2,3… are the coefficients found in the multiple regression step analysis for a value of each predictor such as the area of nature reserves, the species richness in the area, the number of Redbook species in the area, a measure of ecosystem heterogeneity and other factors.
Development of a cost efficient model for nature conservation in IsraelSlide4
[2]
Where;
Benefit
is the benefit that the PA provides to nature conservation, AA, BB, CC … are the factors for establishing conservation priorities such as, species richness, the number of Redbook species, ecosystem heterogeneity and other factors, W1, W2, W3…are the relative weights of conservation importance for each factor. These weights will be derived from the opinions of conservation experts.
Development of a cost efficient model for nature conservation in IsraelSlide5
Development of a cost efficient model for nature conservation in Israel
The model will be used to estimate the cost efficient distribution of limited conservation funding as well as to estimate the gap between current expenditure on conservation in Israel and the expenditure necessary to effectively achieve conservation goals.Slide6
Literature Review the Cost of Protecting NatureSlide7
Literature Review the Cost of Protecting Nature
Conclusions from Literature Review:
PA Size is a positive predictor of conservation costs
No consensus on other predictors Slide8
Hypothesis
We
expect to find that
PA size
is a significant predictor of the variation in costs in Israel.
We expect to find that in addition to PA size, at least
one or more additional PA attributes contributes
significantly to predicting variation in conservation costs.
By studying the nature conservation marginal cost function, significant
cost efficiencies
can be achieved which will enable a
higher level of nature conservation (more conservation goals achieved) for a given budget or enable reaching a given level of nature conservation (specific conservation goals) for a lower budget.Slide9
Methodology
Data Mining:
INPA budgets
GIS - species richness
GIS - abundance
GIS - red
b
ook species
GIS – habitat
h
eterogeneity
Expert Surveys:
Invasive species
Tourism
Forest Fire Threat
Adequate
resources
Linear RegressionSlide10
Data Normalization
Financial Data – Range Area Budgets
Spatial Data – Reserve Areas
Species Data – Species Presence in Range AreasRed Book Species Data – Red Book Species Presence in Range AreasFire Threat – GIS LayerTourism – List of tourist sites
Habitat Heterogeneity Data - UnfinishedSlide11
Financial Data
Organizational Structure of INPA
National Office in Jerusalem
5 Districts15 Regions43 Ranger AreasOver 600 Nature ReservesSlide12
Financial Data
Decided not to study Yehuda and
Shomron
4 Districts13 Regions37 Ranger AreasOver 600 Nature ReservesSlide13
Financial Data
Original intended study unit: nature
r
eservesINPA budgets are set by DistrictsNo way to determine a budget for a nature reserveMany conservation activities which protect the reserves takes place outside of the reserves – control of invasive species, supervision of infrastructure work
Unit of study: Ranger Areas
Needed to transform District Budgets to Ranger Area BudgetsSlide14
Slide15
INPA Northern DistrictSlide16
In order to create Range Area Budgets
District Operation Budgets
Ranger Areas
Manager Surveys
Ranger Area Budgets
District Development BudgetsSlide17
District Operation BudgetsSlide18
District Development BudgetsSlide19
Data Sets for Cost Function
N = 37 Ranger Areas
Regression
Dependent Variable: Range Area BudgetCandidate Independent Variables:Range areas size
Aggregate reserve area
Number of reserves
Species richness
Species diversityThreatened species
Invasive species
Fire threat
TourismSlide20
Analysis of Data
אושר מינים
אזור פיקוח
תקציב שוטף
תקציב פיתוח
סה"כ תקציבים 2013 בש"ח
שטח פיקוח
שטח שמורות
יחס שמורה לפיקוח
מספר שמורות
נתוני נוכחות
מינים אדומים נומינלי
מינים אדומים משוקלל
חרמון
1,089,525
145,633
1,235,158
312.54
7.45
0.02
12
1,704
231
14,699
מרכז הגולן
1,089,525
145,633
1,235,158
459.89
28.89
0.06
19
1,147
2
75
יהודיה
1,089,525
145,633
1,235,158
132.53
36.73
0.28
3
919
0
0
דרום הגולן
1,089,525
145,633
1,235,158
329.76
60.72
0.18
13
1,254
19
903
גליל עליון מזרחי
1,198,478
144,106
1,342,583
467.88
46.21
0.10
37
1,679
70
4,133
הר מירון
1,198,478
144,106
1,342,583
231.30
101.77
0.44
14
1,370
33
1,520
גליל מערבי
1,198,478
144,106
1,342,583
274.84
24.99
0.09
12
883
0
0
חוף ים גליל מערבי
1,198,478
144,106
1,342,583
240.57
13.74
0.06
10
1,281
38
2,225
כנרת וגליל תחתון
980,573
157,106
1,137,678
428.96
19.53
0.05
13
1,324
0
0
גליל תחתון מערבי
980,573
151,106
1,131,678
456.42
16.21
0.04
13
1,315
3
111
גליל תחתון מזרחי
980,573
151,106
1,131,678
293.37
50.83
0.17
8
1,076
0
0
גלבוע
980,573
351,106
1,331,678
500.19
32.50
0.06
16
1,345
0
0
אלונים - שפרעם
1,162,160
155,467
1,317,627
418.81
4.27
0.01
7
1,232
14
565
כרמל
1,162,160
155,467
1,317,627
432.48
63.77
0.15
21
1,631
34
1,527
מנשה - אלונה
1,162,160
197,689
1,359,849
460.35
14.67
0.03
22
1,554
76
4,213
שרון
2,035,639
61,500
2,097,139
613.07
2.68
0.00
16
1,494
116
5,798
פלשת
678,546
65,500
744,046
946.08
14.18
0.01
7
1,768
8
313
ירושלים
1,357,093
0
1,357,093
119.90
0.31
0.00
2
1,257
15
620
הרי יהודה
2,035,639
33,000
2,068,639
417.05
25.16
0.06
16
1,370
0
0
שפלה דרומית
2,035,639
42,500
2,078,139
633.29
19.73
0.03
3
1,119
0
0
מישור חוף דרומי
1,357,093
102,500
1,459,593
861.79
33.05
0.04
11
1,247
0
0
מדבר יהודה
2,134,974
11,000
2,145,974
1,251.68
282.34
0.23
4
1,354
15
656
נגב צפוני
533,743
54,833
588,577
625.63
7.23
0.01
3
976
0
0
נגב מערבי
1,601,230
11,000
1,612,230
700.73
7.53
0.01
3
793
0
0
ערבה צפונית
533,743
53,750
587,493
891.79
383.41
0.43
5
788
0
0
בקעת צין והמכתש הגדול
1,067,487
11,000
1,078,487
1,133.90
315.12
0.28
9
945
0
0
עין עבדת ובקעת צין
1,601,230
11,000
1,612,230
58.45
19.98
0.34
1
590
0
0
ערבה מרכזית ועשוש
533,743
53,750
587,493
1,148.97
432.78
0.38
5
720
0
0
חולות עגור
1,067,487
11,000
1,078,487
1,511.45
240.24
0.16
4
849
0
0
הר הנגב הגבוה
533,743
30,833
564,577
1,048.53
125.78
0.12
4
788
0
0
מכתש רמון
533,743
11,000
544,743
889.63
558.67
0.63
2
886
15
606
מזרח הרמון
1,067,487
11,000
1,078,487
100.01
89.29
0.89
2
320
0
0
הר הנגב הדרומי
533,743
30,833
564,577
1,218.50
970.78
0.80
4
608
0
0
נחלים גדולים
878,296
137,417
1,015,713
1,410.63
431.95
0.31
6
572
0
0
ערבה דרומית
878,296
189,083
1,067,380
430.07
209.10
0.49
5
771
0
0
הרי אילת
878,296
162,417
1,040,713
383.46
310.99
0.81
4
970
0
0
מפרץ אילת
1,129,238
54,083
1,183,321
28.91
1.72
0.06
3
97
0
0Slide21
Initial Results
Range Area SizeSlide22
Initial Results
Range Area SizeSlide23
Initial Results
Range Area SizeSlide24
Initial Results
Reserve AreaSlide25
Initial Results
Reserve AreaSlide26
Initial Results
Reserve AreaSlide27
Slide28
Slide29
Initial Results
Reserve Area LnSlide30
Initial Results
Reserve Area LnSlide31
Initial Results
Reserve Area LnSlide32
Initial Results
Reserve Area LnSlide33
Literature Review the Cost of Protecting Nature
Conclusions from Literature Review:
PA Size is a positive predictor of conservation costs
No consensus on other predictors Slide34
So Far
Research Hypothesis
This study will test the following hypotheses:
From a review of previous studies on the cost of nature conservation we expect to find that PA size is a significant predictor of the variation in costs in Israel. PA size appears to be a significant predictor of operation and development costs. The relationship, however, between PA size and costs is negative. We expect to find that in addition to PA size, at least one or more additional PA attributes contributes significantly to predicting variation in conservation costs.
I have not yet tested the model of multiple predictors but so far on an individual basis I have not found another significant predictor of operation and development cost variation. Slide35
Next Stage
Research Hypothesis
This study will test the following hypotheses:
By studying the nature conservation marginal cost function, significant cost efficiencies can be achieved which will enable a higher level of nature conservation (more conservation goals achieved) for a given budget or enable reaching a given level of nature conservation (specific conservation goals) for a lower budget.In order to create the marginal cost function (supply curve) for nature conservation, we must build a marginal benefit function which shows the incremental increase in conservation benefit as we add more and more PA’s (reserves) to our study area (IsraelSlide36
Methodology
Weighted Index
Weight
Weight of Ecological Attributes
of Range Areas
? %
A Species richness
and abundance of individuals
? %
B Presence of
endangered and endemic species
? %
C Diversity
and uniqueness of habitats and ecosystems
? %
D Connectivity between reserves and proximate
natural areas
? %
E Representativeness
of nature reserves in Israel
? %
F Geological
phenomenon/geomorphological uniqueness
? %
G Landscape
and historical value for tourism
100%
TotalSlide37
Weighted IndexSlide38
Marginal Cost Curve (Supply Curve)