Member exclusive by Dasia Moore - PowerPoint Presentation

Member exclusive by Dasia Moore

In 1970, 310 million passengers traveled by plane. In 2018, that figure was up 1,263%, to 4.23 billion passengers. (That passenger number includes each time someone took a trip, so some people are counted more than once.) The increase has been sharpest in the 21st century, with the quickest change happening in the last 10 years. Air travel is steadily growing 2

It’s unlikely that anything could stop more and more people from taking to the skies each year. But that doesn’t mean the business or experience of flying will always look the way they do now. In fact, the airline industry is facing major challenges that will dramatically change the relationship between airlines and the earth, their passengers, and their pilots.  Four forces are shaping the future of air travel: The climate crisis. Hotter temperatures and higher sea levels will force changes to aviation infrastructure. The rise of middle-class flyers in Asia. The air industry’s cultural and capital center is shifting east. A pilot shortage. Airlines hope automation can fill the gap between pilots and passenger demand. Technological advances. High-tech cabins and supersonic travel might not be pipe-dreams, after all. …and due for major shifts 3

For now, airlines based in the US dominate industry leaderboards. One common indicator of an airline’s size is how many kilometers it flies its paying passengers in a year, or revenue passenger-kilometers (RPK). By that measure, four of the top 10 airlines in 2018 were American, and three were Chinese. The airlines currently leading the industry 4

5 People do think this is the third, next generation of air travel. […] The future must be smart, environmentally friendly, and able to be scaled. At this early point, it’s not clear whether that new generation is 15 or 50 years away. […] But people working together is probably the only way that it can happen. Jeff Engler CEO, Wright Electric

How much air travel matters in the grand scheme of the climate crisis depends on whom you ask. Air travel accounts for just 2% of global emissions, but when you consider the small percentage of people in the world who actually fly, 2% is an outsized contribution. In the UK—ranked third in the world in terms of annual flyers—just 1% of people take nearly 20% of the country’s international flights. A handful of frequent-flyer countries also contribute disproportionately to airplane emissions. As the European Commission points out, “If global aviation was a country, it would rank in the top 10 emitters.” The impact of air travel is only getting worse as more people take to the skies.  Air travel is changing the climate 6

The relationship between aviation and climate change isn’t a one-way street. A warming earth affects air travel in numerous ways: Planes can’t take off in high temperatures. Hot air is less dense, which makes it harder for planes to get adequate lift. The solutions are imperfect: costly longer runways and noisy late-night departures. Sea level rise and flooding threaten some of the world’s busiest airports, including those in New York, Shanghai, Amsterdam, Brisbane, Bangkok, and Rome. Osaka’s Kansai Airport saw debilitating flooding last year.And of course, climate-related regulations will push the aviation industry to find new ways to fuel planes.  And the climate is changing air travel 7 55ºC The maximum operating temperature for most Boeing and Airbus planes. (126ºF) 25% The share of the 100 busiest airports that are less than 10 meters above sea level. 1-2% Aviation’s projected yearly efficiency gains—less than the UN’s goal of 5%.

In 1970, the 10 countries with the greatest number of passengers carried were almost exclusively western (Japan and Australia were the only exceptions). The shift over the next five decades has been decisive: half of the top 10 are now in Asia. The world’s busiest air routes paint an even clearer picture of Asia’s importance to air travel: the continent is home to nine of the world’s 10 busiest international routes. The future of air travel is in Asia 8 Kuala Lumpur to Singapore (KUL-SIN) 1 Hong Kong to Taipei (HKG-TPE) 2 Hong Kong to Shanghai (HKG-PVG) 4 Jakarta to Kuala Lumpur (CGK-KUL) 3 Jakarta to Kuala Lumpur (CGK-KUL) 5 Seoul to Osaka (ICN-KIX) 6 New York to Toronto (LGA-YYZ) 7 Hong Kong to Seoul (HKG-ICN) 8 Bangkok to Hong Kong (BKK-HKG) 9 Dubai to Kuwait (DXB-KWI) 10 Busiest international air routes by number of flights March 2018-February 2019

China is expected to edge out the US as number one in air travel by 2022. A large and growing population and rising middle class explain a great deal of that growth. But China’s government has also set specific goals and invested billions of dollars to bolster its powerful place in the aviation industry. China is gearing up to be the airline industry’s leader 9 $150 billion The amount China’s government has committed to investing in aviation infrastructure by 2025. $17 billion The cost of Beijing’s new Daxing Airport, designed by Zaha Hadid and opened in September of this year. 20% The share of global jetliners China’s government wants to supply by 2025, under its “Made in China” plan.

Growing passenger volume means the world needs 150,000 more commercial pilots by 2027. But traditional training institutions are producing fewer pilots than ever, with a 25% decline from 2012 to 2016. Training costs and demanding work schedules contribute to lack of interest in the career. Mandatory retirement at 65 also means 105,000 pilots will leave the field by 2027. That brings the total demand for pilots in the next decade to 255,000—a seemingly impossible figure. The decline in pilots has been particularly sharp in the US. Fewer pilots for more passengers 10

One way to deal with the pilot shortage is to expand autonomous vehicle technology to passenger planes. Autonomous planes are already being tested for cargo and military uses, but passengers aren’t interested in self-flying commercial planes. One solution, auto-pilot 11 Regulators are an even bigger hurdle on the way to autonomous air travel, with approval of pilot-free planes still a long way off. One intermediary step airlines might consider is cutting their cockpit crew in half, with one pilot controlling a highly automated plane. This wouldn’t be the first time cockpit crews have shrunk. Or until then, single-pilot 5 1940s Early commercial flights used a five-person crew: two pilots, an engineer, a navigator, and a radio operator. 3 1964 Improved Inertial Navigation System and Doppler devices begin to replace navigators. 1? 2019 Boeing and Airbus are developing one-crew cockpits, but single-pilot planes are still years away. 2 1982 Boeing’s first “glass cockpits”—highly automated control panels—operate using two-person flight crews. 4 1950s Radios get simpler, which allows pilots and co-pilots to take over the radio operator’s role.

Autonomous flying isn’t the only technological change that will transform air travel. Internet of Things connectivity opens the door to “smart cabins”—where everything from lavatories to overhead bins will be digitally monitored, controlled, and connected to the plane’s wifi . Smart cabins promise increased efficiency for flight crews and improved in-flight experiences for passengers. Here are a few examples of what we could see in coming years: Cabins are due for a digital make-over 12 Touchless lavatories could respond to voice commands, let passengers reserve a place in line from their seat, and alert crew when supplies are running low. LED ceiling lighting would provide on-board advertising space that might help offset the cost of cabin upgrades—all while improving the in-flight ambiance. An ultra-luxe first class with everything from air humidifiers to seats that feature custom reclining configurations and noise reduction.

When the British-French Concorde ended its 27-year run in 2003, supersonic travel seemed to be retired along with it. But now, US firms want to bring back planes that are faster than the speed of sound—without the noise and profit-eating costs that limited Concorde’s success. Here is what they hope to deliver in the next few years: The return of the supersonic plane? 13 1.4 times faster than the speed of sound 12 passengers 2023 First flight Aerion Supersonic 1.6 times faster than the speed of sound 12-18 passengers 2023 First flight Spike Aerospace 2.2 times faster than the speed of sound 55-75 passengers 2023 First flight Boom

Want to know more? Check out more travel coverage from Quartz reporter Natasha Frost, who contributed to this presentation. Should you stop flying? – If you want to know just how bad your travel is for the environment. Airbus subsidies are leading to tariffs on champagne and olives – If you’re curious about what happens when an air industry giant breaks the rules. Flying with emotional support animals may be banned – If you’re wondering whether your furry friend can fly with you. The easiest countries to visit as a tourist – If you’re trying to choose your next travel destination. You’ll also enjoy our newest field guide, the airline industry’s tipping point . In it, Natasha takes a close look at low-emission planes, the Internet of Things in the sky, and why it’s a great time to be running a US airline. Have questions about this presentation, or suggestions for us? Send us a note at   members@qz.com . 14