Distribution Predicted Observed Evaluating amp Using General Theories in Ecology Ethan P White ethanwhite with Xiao Xiao Daniel J McGlinn amp Katherine M Thibault ID: 243347
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Slide1
Spatial
Distribution
Predicted
Observed
Evaluating & Using General Theories in Ecology
Ethan P. White
(@
ethanwhite) with Xiao Xiao, Daniel J. McGlinn, & Katherine M. Thibault
15745 sites
8802 species4 major taxa50 million individuals
Code
: github.com/weecology Data: weecology.org/data Grants: weecology.org/grants Twitter: @ethanwhiteBlog: jabberwocky.weecology.org
MaxEnt
models
General tests of general theory
General theories
Using general
t
heories to model diversity
Theory
Diversity Patterns
Birds
General ecological theories explain a broad array of ecological patterns
They facilitate research and management at the scale of climate and land use change
To evaluate general theories
rigorously it is necessary to
u
se large
amounts of
data (to get general results) and
multiple
predictions (to determine if the theory is right, or just lucky)
We evaluate the Maximum Entropy Theory of Ecology and use it to model diversity at continental scales.
Use all available data
Use all available predictions
Body Size &
Resource Use
Predicted
Observed
Commonness
& Rarity
Predicted
Observed
Predicted
Observed
Maximum Entropy models describe the most likely state of a system that satisfies a set on constraints.
Good models for
complicated
systems without dominant processes (e.g., toddlers and ecology)
This
MaxEnt
model
captures commonness and rarity across the globe and diversity of life.
When pushed to predict multiple patterns the model produces decidedly mixed results.
Specify a joint distribution
Maximize entropy
Subject to constraints
We practice open science
Predict Rarity
Extrapolate across scales
Model diversity
Environment
Richness &
Abundance
Harte et al. (2009)
Ecology Letters
Acknowledgements
Poster
Harte
Lab
CAREER
Award
Weecology
Predicted
Predicted
log(Area)
log(# of Species)
Predicted # of Rare Species
Observed # of Rare Species