Pipeline Qra Seminar Pipeline risk assessment Software for consequence modelling 2 What is consequence modelling Effects from accident eg release or explosion Strict physical effect eg overpressure from explosion flow from release and concentration at distance ID: 191885
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Title slide
Pipeline
Qra SeminarSlide2
Pipeline risk assessment Software for consequence modelling
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What is consequence modelling?Effects from accident (e.g. release or explosion)Strict physical effect (e.g. overpressure from explosion, flow from release and concentration at distance)
Overall effect on human safety (e.g. injuries from overpressure or injuries from toxic concentration)3Software for consequence modelling
Content slideSlide4
What is included in consequence modelling?-Dispersion (gas)-Vaporization and dispersion (liquid to gas)
-Release (flow – liquid and gas)-Explosion (overpressure)-Jet fire/pool fire (extent and thermal radiation)-Toxicity (gas)-Smoked and gas ingress (buildings)-Structural integrity-Domino effects (e.g. BLEVE)
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Software for consequence modelling Slide5
Specialized software (specific consequence model) versus software packages (several consequence models)
Somewhat a question of wanted level of detail (e.g. urban area or rural area and topography)Method depending on the situation (e.g. complexity, stage of project and time)
Economical and technological aspects (e.g. costs for license and knowledge of the software)No single best software to
solve all problems5Software for consequence modelling Slide6
Different methods and philosophy for consequence modelling
Empirical consequence models (based on experiments) versus CFD models (advanced numerical calculations)6Software for consequence modelling Slide7
PHAST from DNVGL
Canary from QUEST
EFFECTS from TNO
TRACE from Safer SystemsFRED from ShellALOHA from EPADifferent methods and philosophy for consequence modellingSoftware established by consultant companies, authorities, companies (e.g. oil and gas industry and process industry) and software companiesAll of the software listed to the right is empirical consequence models Software for consequence modelling Light blue fact box7Slide8
Software package from DNVGL- Discharge and dispersion models
- Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires, pool fires and fireballs)- Explosion models- Models for the toxic hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor toxic dose)Continuously developed for over 30
yearsUsed frequently in the oil- and gas industry (e.g. BP, Total, Maersk and Shell)
8Software: PHAST Slide9
Strengths of PHAST
All-roundSimple (i.e. easy to learn)Possibility to connect to SAFETI (QRA software)Weaknesses of PHASTLimitations in congested areas
Limitations in urban areas (i.e. obstacles and topography)
9Software: PHAST Slide10
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Software: PHAST Slide11
Ringsted, Denmark- 30’’ gas pipeline
- 80 bar- shopping centre at 100 meters
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Example of PHAST Slide12
- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4
kw/m2 – injuries from short exposure) – 130 meter- Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from medium exposure) –
100 meter- Jetfire (yellow - radiation
37.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from short exposure) – 70 meter12Example of PHAST Slide13
- Flashfire (green -
LEL) – 100 meter- Flashfire (blue - ½ LEL) – 230 meter
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Example of PHAST Slide14
Software (free) from EPA in USA-Discharge and dispersion models-
Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires, pool fires and fireballs)-Explosion models-Models for the toxic hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor toxic dose)Part of the CAMEO software package (i.e. tools for emergency planning)
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Software: ALOHA Slide15
- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4
kw/m2 – injuries from short exposure) – 80 meter- Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from
medium exposure) – 40 meter- Jetfire
(yellow - radiation 37.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from short exposure) – 30 meter15Example of ALOHASlide16
- Flashfire (green - LEL) –
340 meter- Flashfire (blue – ½ LEL) – 500 meter
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Example of ALOHASlide17
Short for: computational fluid dynamics Not a specific software (i.e. group of software)-CFX CFD from ANSYS
Uses numerical methods and algorithms to solve and analyse problems that involve fluid/gas flowsCould be applicable for wide range of problems
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Software: CFDSlide18
Could be applicable for wide range of problems- Aerodynamics (e.g. aircrafts and cars)- Hydrodynamics (e.g. ships)
- Power plants (e.g. combustion in gas turbines)- Process equipment (e.g. flows and loads)- Process equipment (e.g. heat transfer and cooling)- Marine structures (e.g. loads)- Environment (e.g. exhaust and dispersion)- Hydrology (e.g. flows in rivers and flooding)- Buildings (e.g. ventilation)
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Software: CFDSlide19
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Software: CFDSlide20
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Software: CFDSlide21
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Software: CFDSlide22
Strengths of CFD
Applicable for complex situations (e.g. urban areas and topography)Weaknesses of CFDResources (e.g. man-hours, knowledge and economy)
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Software: CFDSlide23
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Comparison of consequence modelling Slide24
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Comparison of consequence modelling Slide25
QUESTIONS?
End slide
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