Martin J Silverthorne Insider Secrets to Beating Online Craps Insider Secrets to Beating - PDF document

Martin J Silverthorne Insider Secrets to Beating Online CrapsCOPYRIGHT © 2007 Silverthorne Publications Inc.All rights reserved. Except for brief passages used in legitimate reviews, no parts of thisbook may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,without the written permission of the publisher.Address all inquiries to the publisher:Silverthorne Publications, Inc.848 N. Rainbow Blvd., Suite 601 Las Vegas, Nevada 89107United States of AmericaThe material contained in this book is intended to inform and educate the reader and in noway represents an inducement to gamble legally or illegally.This publication is designed to provide an independent viewpoint and analysis of thesubject matter. The publisher and the author disclaim all legal responsibility for anypersonal loss or liability caused by the use of any of the information contained herein.Questions about this publication may be addressed to:orders@silverthornepublications.comPublished in the United States of America Introduction to Playing OnlineWhy Play Craps Online?Having access to a casino from the comfort of your own home means you don’t have to travel toplay and win at craps. Because many of the online casinos offer very favorable versions of thegame, it is much easier to find a superior version of craps online than in many land-basedBesides the convenience of online craps play, a huge reason to play online is profitability. Usingour approach to craps means that you can quickly amass large profits playing online.Because online games are much faster than games in real casinos, your profit per hour of playwill be much higher when playing online. While 50 to 60 rounds of play an hour would be anaverage rate of play in a land-based casino, speeds of 200, 300 or even 400 rounds of play perhour are the norm in online casinos.With convenience and high profitability possible, you have two strong reasons to become anonline craps player using Insider Secrets to Beating the Online Casinos.Whether you are an experienced craps player or a novice, this book will help you determine howto get started playing craps online.Your ComputerWhile you can play blackjack online from a variety of computers, the following are the minimumspecifications you need for most online casinos:PC compatible computerWindows 98/2000/Millenium/XP operating systemPentium 200 MHz microprocessor32 MB RAM16-Bit color video card (800 x 600 resolution set)30 MB hard driveBetter yet, here are the optimum specs for fast and comfortable online play:Windows 98/2000/Millenium/XP operating systemPentium 350 MHz microprocessor or higher64 MB RAM (256 MB is even better)32-Bit color video card (800 x 600 resolution set)Sound Blaster AWE 32-bit sound card or better In addition, you will want to download the latest versions of Macromedia Flashwww.macromedia.com/software/flashplayer/) and Shockwave http://sdc.shockwave.com/shockwave/download.cgi?/), as well as Sun Microsystem’s Java http://Java.sun.com Internet ConnectionMost online casinos state that you can play with a 56.6bps modem. This is akin to a Las Vegascasino telling players in Los Angeles that they can ride over on their mountain bikes. While thisis technically true, it is really not the recommended way to go.I use a cable modem, and I will never go back to a dial-up connection. With today’s graphicsheavy pages requiring longer and longer to load, you owe it to yourself to have a high-speedInternet connection to play online.Downloading and Installing SoftwareWe will cover additional issues about whether to download or not in the next chapter. As apractical matter, many online casinos require that you download their software to play, so thatwhether to download the software or not is not really an issue. In many cases, you have todownload the casino’s software in order to play.Most of our recommended casinos offer downloadable software. A notable exception isBodog.com, which allows free play in your browser window and is a great place to practice TheOnline Gambling Toolkit.Most online casinos are not a bit shy about offering you the option to download their software.Many times a download button will be flashing in your face. Click it. You’ll probably get a listof terms and conditions before you download the software. Go ahead and read it. Once you picka software family for play, such as Realtime Gaming or Microgaming, you will find that thecasinos in each family have similar terms and conditions.Some online casinos will ask for your email address. If you want to avoid any possibility ofcompromising your personal email address I recommend that you sign up for a free emailaddress at hotmail.com or yahoo.com. It is not a good idea to use your email address at work foryour online gambling email address.Before you start the downloading process, you should create a folder for your downloadedsoftware. You might want to set up a folder called Downloads on your C drive as C:\downloads.After going through these steps, you will run into a pop-up box on your computer screen offeringthe choices of: Run, Save and Cancel. Choose to download the software.After choosing the save option, another window will appear asking you where you wish to savethe program. Save it to the folder set up for your downloads, such as C:\downloads. Be sure to write down the name of the folder and the program so that you can find it later.Double click My Computer. Select your C drive and click the Save button. Your download willbegin. This may take some time if you are using a dial-up connection.Once the download is completed, the window will tell you that it is finished or some similarmessage. Now the program is on your computer, but it is not yet installed. Click on the Startbutton on the lower-lefthand side of your computer screen, choose Run, and enter the folder andsoftware name for the downloaded program.A screen will pop-up. You will need to follow the instructions to install it. Since it is in thecasino’s best interest that this process go smoothly, you shouldn’t have much trouble. Usuallythe program will put a shortcut for launching the game on your desktop or in your Start menuunder Programs. Remember this whenever you want to start the gamePlaying in Practice ModeVirtually every casino listed in this book offers you the ability to practice before you deposit anymoney. If you should ever run into a casino not allowing this feature, don’t play there, as beingallowed to practice before you pay is an important aspect of becoming a consistent winner.If a casino asks for a credit card or other payment information before allowing you to downloador play, don’t play there. There are plenty of other casinos to choose from.Some casinos offer their free games in browser windows. To play in “practice mode” you musthave an Internet connection and be online. With a cable modem this is not an issue as youshould be online every time you turn on your computer. Internet CrapsCraps flourished during World War II, as only a pair of dice and an old blanket were neededto set up a game, and it was fairly easy to hide the evidence. In the past twenty years, blackjack hasbecome the most popular casino table game, relegating craps to the number two position.Craps happens to be one of the fastest and most exciting games in the casino. Although thedice are handled by only one player at a time, it is not unusual for a high level of rapport to developbetween the shooter and the other players, especially during a hot roll of the dice when the shooterrolls number after winning number.The land casinos' version of craps is played at a large table with four dealers, a boxman,often a floor supervisor, and up to fourteen players. The layout of the table and the number ofplayers make this one of the most intimidating games for the novice to approach. However, theobjective is quite simple: you want to bet whether a shooter will be able to make or be unable tomake certain combinations of numbers.Of course, Internet craps has no real players, no dealers, no boxman, no sexy cocktailwaitresses, no lucky lady shooters and uses the infamous "invisible dice." I recommend that youplay craps on the Internet only if you are a craps player, or you want to sample the game with lowpressure. The Internet games of roulette and baccarat are much faster and better suit our hit and runtactics against the virtual casinos. While there are numerous bets possible in both the land-based and virtual craps games, inthe Internet games you will only concern yourself with the even-money wagers of pass line anddon't pass wagers.When you play in an online casino, you can choose to wager one of two even-money linebets. These wagers are pass line and don't pass. These two bets pay back 98.6% of the wagersmade on them, with a house edge of only 1.4%. With this low vig, these wagers are excellent forthe money management needed to milk the Internet casinos.A pass line bet is made by placing a wager in the pass line betting area which runs aroundthe outside of the craps layout, directly in front of the players. Pass line bets are made before theshooter has a come out roll.Each round of craps starts with a come out roll where the shooter is trying to establish apoint. Point numbers are the numbers 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10. If the shooter rolls any of these numberson his come out roll, the number becomes his point. After establishing a point number as his point,the shooter will continue to roll the dice until he either makes his point, by repeating the number heestablished as his point, or by rolling a 7. If the shooter rolls a 7 before hitting his point, he is saidto have sevened out, and the dice will pass to the next shooter. If he makes his point by rolling itbefore rolling a 7, the same shooter continues to roll the dice. This is academic if you are the onlyshooter in an i-casino; however, you still need to understand the flow of the game in order tounderstand the wagers.Line bets are made before a shooter has established a point. A pass line wager wins on acome out roll if a 7 or 11 is rolled. These numbers are called naturals as they cause instant wins forpass line wagers on come out rolls. If a craps number of 2, 3 or 12 is rolled on a come out roll, thepass line bet loses. In a land casino, the stickman, who calls the game of craps, might announce theappearance of a 3 on a come out roll, as "Three, a craps, pay the don'ts, take down the front line So, with a pass line bet, come out rolls of 7 or 11 are instant wins, craps numbers or 2, 3 or12 cause immediate losses and any other number becomes the shooter's point. Once a point numberis established, the pass line bet must remain in place until either the shooter hits his point, which is awin for the pass line bet, or the shooter rolls a seven and the pass line bet loses.Once a point has been set up, 7 is no longer a natural for the pass line player. In fact, thenumber 7 becomes the nemesis of the pass line bettors. With a point established, the other naturalnumber 11 has no effect on the pass line bet, nor does the appearance of any of the craps numbers of2, 3 or 12.The pass line wager has its greatest advantage on come out rolls. Out of the 36 possiblecombinations of a pair of dice, 7 and 11 can be rolled eight ways, while the craps numbers of 2, 3and 12 can only be rolled four ways. On come out rolls, a pass line wager would win, on theaverage, eight times out of 36 rolls, while only losing four times out of 36. On the come out roll, thepass line bettor actually has the advantage over the house. However, once the point has beenestablished, the house has an advantage over the pass line bet, as a 7 can be rolled six ways out of36, which is more than any of the point numbers. The house edge against the pass line wager is sosubstantial after come out rolls that it cancels the player's advantage on come out rolls and gives thehouse an edge over the pass line wager of 1.4%Most craps players make pass line wagers and root for the player to make his or her point.A minority of players will make don't pass bets, which work almost exactly the opposite of pass linewagers.A don't pass bet is another even-money bet which is made by placing a wager in the bettingarea labeled Don't Pass Bar 12. On come out rolls, a don't pass wager loses if a 7 or 11 is rolled. Ifa 2 or 3 is rolled on a come out roll, the don't pass bet wins. Any other number becomes theshooter's point. The dice will continue to be rolled until either the point number or a 7 shows. If the point number is rolled first, the don't pass wager loses. However,if the 7 shows first, the don't pass bet wins.On the come out roll, the don't pass wager is at its greatest disadvantage. The don't passwager can lose if a 7 or 11 is rolled, but can win only if a 2 or 3 (3 or 12 in Northern Nevadacasinos), is rolled. It has eight ways of losing with a 7 or 11, versus only three ways of winningwith a 2 or 3. However, after the point is established, the advantage swings overwhelmingly infavor of the don't pass wager as a seven can be rolled more ways than any other number, and sevenis the winning number for don't pass wagers after the come out roll.You may have wondered what happened to the craps number 12, which causes a pass linewager to lose on a come out, but has no effect on a come out don't pass wager . Most craps tablesbar the 12 for don't pass wagers leaving only the craps numbers of 2 and 3 as winning numbers forcome out don't pass wagers. This is the single edge the house has over line bets in craps. Since a 12will show on the average only once every 36 rolls, it is not a difficult house edge to overcome usingshort-term playing sessions with the house giving us bonus money.Some casinos, most notably the land-based casinos in Northern Nevada, bar the 2 and allowthe don't pass to win on come out 3s and 12s. Mathematically it makes no difference whether acasino bars the 2 or the 12; either way it gains an advantage over the line wagers.With Internet craps, we face a house edge of only 1.4% making either pass line or don't passwagers. However, since 3.3 rolls of the dice are the average number of dice rolls between pass anddon't pass decisions, craps games take longer to play than roulette games where a decision is madewith each spin of the wheel. This is the principal disadvantage of playing Internet craps. If you arefascinated by watching cartoon-like dice bounce across your monitor, you may love this game. Ilove the land-based version of the game for the excitement and comradery. However, since theInternet version has neither, I very seldom play craps on the Internet. Whether you play or not is really a personal decision. You may want toconsider that I have found that it is more difficult to win consistently at Internet craps than eitherroulette or baccarat. This is another one of my observations which defies logic. Logically, I shouldhave a higher win rate with craps than roulette since the craps house vig of 1.4% is less than the2.70% vig of single zero roulette (without the special playing rules for outside numbers) or the5.26% house vig of the two zero games. Having played hundreds of games on the Internet, I havecome to believe that craps is more difficult to beat because the patterns of dice decisions affectingthe even-money wagers are choppier for craps than the even-money wagers for either roulette orbaccarat.Our play at craps shares the same objectives as play at roulette. We will use a systemwagering only on even-money wagers which win a high percentage of the time. With craps we willuse the same I-Betting series as was used in roulette. For bettors deposing $500 in an onlinecasino, this betting series is: 5 10 20 40 50 75 100 150.For internet craps I have found that the same bet selection method used for roulette (See Online Roulette Toolkit-2008) works just as well for craps. Here are the rules you will use to playcasino craps:1. You will start your betting at the lowest level of your betting series. The I-Betting Series table inthe previous chapter shows several different betting series you can use. This series is flexibleenough that it can fit just about any deposit you want to make in a casino, subject to minimum andmaximum wagers imposed by the house rules. The betting series you select should always matchthe size of your deposit and the e-casino's betting limits.2. Your first wager will always be the lowest wager in the series. The table on the next page showsthe I-Betting Series using a $5 minimum bet. $5 I-Betting SeriesLevel12345678 Bet51020405075100150 3. Each time a wager loses, you will raise your bet one level. If a level 1 wager of $5 loses, yournext bet will be at level 2 for $10.4. After any win, the next bet will be one level lower. If you win a level 4 bet in the amount of $40,your next wager will be at level 3 for $20. However, if this bet also wins, you will have won twobets in a row and will drop two levels for the next wager. The betting rule is that if two consecutivewagers win, or if two out of three wagers win, the next wager is for the amount two levels lower inthe series.Here are two examples to help clarify this procedure and to compare winnings under eachprocedure. First, we will assume that three bets in a row have been lost and that we have thefollowing sequence of wins and losses: win, win, win, loss. After our second win, we drop ourwager two levels. We end this series with a net win of $25 as follows: BetsAmount wonor lost perwagerCumulativeamount won orLoss of level 1, 2, and 3bets (5 + 10 + 20)Level 4 Bet wins+40+ 5Level 3 Bet wins+20+25Level 1 bet wins+ 5+30Level 1 bet loses- 5+25We had three wins and one loss after our starting point, for a net win of $25.Now assume that we also have three wins and a loss, but that they occur in a different order,so that we use the rule calling for us to drop our bet two levels if we win two out of three wagers.The table below recaps a series of wagers occurring following the loss of our first three wagers inour betting series. Here we win the first bet, lose the next one, win the third bet and drop our bettwo levels following the second win.BetsAmount wonor lost perwagerCumulativeamount won orLoss of level 1, 2, and 3bets (5 + 10 + 20)Level 4 Bet wins+40+ 5Level 3 Bet loses-20-15Level 4 bet wins+40+25Level 2 bet wins+10+35 In this series of wagers, we win $35 or $10 more than the previous series. The order inwhich wins and losses occur can make a tremendous difference in the amount won and lost, even inshort sequences like these.5. If we lose all of the wagers in our betting series, the playing session is over. Let me clarify this.You should quit playing in that particular e-casino for a while. I don't care whether you take a breakfor ten minutes or discontinue play in that casino for several days. However, it is important that youremove yourself from the game long enough so that you can make a decision about what to do. Ifyou have lost enough, you may want to let the account set idle for a while and see what the e-casinodoes. Many times they will e-mail you about new promotions and offer you an additional bonuswhen you deposit more cash. This is the kind of offer which makes playing for bonuses veryworthwhile.You will select your bets using the R-Bet Selection method as described in the OnlineRoulette Tookit-2008. Here are the bet selection rules you will use:1. You will alternate your bets from betting the same as the previous decision to the opposite of thepreceding decision. It is very important that you alternate this pattern comparing your new wager tothe outcome of the previous decision, and not your own previous wager. It is easy to confuseexactly what "same" and "opposite" mean. Assume you are betting the same as the previousdecision and have a wager on the pass line. The wager loses. Your next wager will be the oppositeof the actual previous decision, which was don't pass. Therefore you will wager on the pass line. Imention this because I have occasionally made betting errors myself in this type of situation, bettingthe opposite of my own previous losing wager and betting don't pass in error.2. You will need to develop tricks to help you keep track of your wagers. I have found that alwaysassuming that my first wager is the same as the previous wager helps me. When I start a crapsgame I usually bet don't pass and assume that the previous decision was a don't pass. Of course,when I first start a game there is no previous decision. If my first wager wins, I next bet oppositeand wager $5 on the pass line. If my first wager loses, I will bet the opposite of the previous decision and again wager on don't pass. However, since I lost my firstbet in the series, I usually wager at level one again. After this second decision, I will continue thebetting series in a normal fashion, regardless of whether I win or lose the second wager.I mentally keep track of the status of my current bet, remembering whether it is the same oropposite. If you find this too taxing you can write down your status on a piece of paper or use acoin to track your bets, by letting heads represent "same" and tails "opposite."3. Whenever a 12 is rolled on a come out roll and you are wagering the pass line, you will have aloss. This is the situation which gives the casino the house edge over the line wagers. When a 12 isrolled on a come out, pass line loses, but don't pass doesn't win. The question becomes how toclassify this outcome since it is the one situation in craps where one line wager can lose without theother winning. I resolve this dilema by considering the come out 12 a don't pass decison if I lose apass line bet and ignoring it if I am betting on the don't pass. Assume that I have a $10 bet on passline and a 12 shows on a come out. How I placemy next wager is dependent on whether I was betting the same or opposite on the losing bet. If Iwas betting same, now I will bet opposite. Since I assume that the preceding outcome was a don'tpass decision, betting opposite I wager $20 on the pass line. If I had been betting opposite on thepreceding decision, I would now bet same and wager on the don't pass.Whenever a come out 12 shows and I am wagering don't pass, I just ignore the decision as ifit never happened since there is no effect on my wager.The table on the next page recaps a short session at an e-casino. The betting series used was5 10 20 40 50 75 100 150. The deposit was for $500, with a 10% bonus to be paid after wageringthe amount of the deposit. Here is the legend for this table:Column 1 represents the decision. I track the number of decisions using my calculator.Column 2 shows the outcome of each decision.Column 3 shows our pattern of betting, where s = same and o = opposite.Column 4, "Bet-Amount," is the line wager made on and the amount bet. For example, "p-20" is awager of $20 on the pass line.Column 5, "Win-Loss" shows whether each wager won or lost and the amount. "L-40" is a loss ofColumn 6, "Bankroll," is the net amount of the $500 deposit after each decision.Column 7, "Amount Won" shows the total amount won or lost after each decision.We start the game (1) with the pattern of betting "same," wagering $5 on the don't pass andlose the wager. For the next wager (2) we wager "opposite" betting d-10 and lose. Our cumulativeloss is now $15. On bet 3 we wager "same" betting p-20 and win. We now have a net win of $5.We continue the betting process, alternating between betting same and opposite andfollowing the rules of the betting series. On wager 15, following several losses, we wagered $75 ondon't pass (d-75). We won this wager and we bet $50 for wager 16, winning this bet also. Since wehad won two consecutive wagers, we dropped wager 17 back two levels to $20 and won this betalso.After 23 decisions we were up $80, averaging a win of $3.48 per decision. This illustrationis typical of the results you will experience when you play in an online casino. Picking the right spot to quit is very important. Quitting after decision 23, following fourstraight wins, gave us a win of $80. If we had quit following decision 14, after five straight losses,we would have had a $95 loss. I always try to quit after several winning decisions. The easiestway to find the best spot to quit, is to quit playing after winning a wager at the first or second level.The length of the time spent playing is important too. Lengthy games lasting more then 50decisions are to be avoided. Analysis of a Craps GameBetting Series = 5 10 20 40 50 75 100 1501234567 DecOutcomePatternBet-AmountBankrollAmount 1psd-5L-5495-5 2pod-10L-10485-15 3psp-20W-20505+5 4dod-10W-10515+15 5psd-5L-5510+10 6dod-10W-10520+20 7psd-5L-5515+15 8dod-10W-10525+25 9dsd-5W-5530+30 10dop-5L-5525+25 11psp-10L-10515+15 12pod-20L-20495-5 13dsd-40L-40475-45 14dop-50L-50425-95 15dsd-75W-75500-0- 16pop-50W-50550+50 17psp-20W-20570+70 18dop-10L-20550+50 19dsp-20L-40510+10 20pop-40W-40550+50 21psp-20W-20570+70 22dod-5W-5575+75 23dsd-5W-5580+80 The next table shows the results of twelve sessions in seven different Internet casinos. Theseven casinos are represented by the letters A, B, C, D, E, F and G, and the games played at eachcasino are grouped together for easy reference, although this is not the same sequence in which theoriginal games were played. As is my practice, these games took a couple of weeks to complete as Iwas also playing roulette and baccarat in various Internet casinos. However, for the sake of clarity,here I am only presenting craps games grouped by casino.The first column is for reference, where the number is the number of the session and theletter represents the casino. The reference "9E" means the nineth playing session in this group ofsessions, played at Casino E. The Deposit column shows the beginning desposit in each casino.The Bonus column shows the bonus paid. The number of decisions shows both the number of dicerolls and the number of decisions made affecting pass line and don't pass wagers. The amountwagered is the total amount of money wagered in each session. The Win or Loss column is forscore keeping, it shows the amount won or lost in each session. The last column is a cumulativetotal of wins and losses.As is my custom, I varied the amount of each deposit. While I varied the amount of myroulette deposits by $5, I used a difference of $3 for craps games. Let's follow the first game. Ideposited $503 in Casino A and played a game of craps, using the system I have described. Thegame lasted for 134 rolls, which resulted in 44 decisions. I wagered a total of $955, winning a net$200 for the game.I lost two back-to-back sessions in this series of games, losing both games 6C and 7D. Letme tell you more about these sessions. Game 6C was almost a straight up loss, lasting only 26decisions. It was one of those games where nothing I did seemed to work. You will experiencesome of these sessions and you will be tempted to change the playing strategy out of your sense offrustration. As a word of advice — don't. I have spent hundreds of hours playing games in the e-casinos and while there may be a better way of beating them, I was unable to find it. Twelve Sessions of Internet CrapsDepositDecisionsAmountWageredCumulative 1A50350decisions955+200+200 decisions980+240+440 3B50650decisions1,885+205+645 decisions675+175+770 5C50950decisions1,475+205+975 decisions680-350+625 7D51250115 rollsdecisions1,795-285+340 DepositDecisionsAmountWageredCumulative 8E51850193 rollsdecisions1,535+185+525 9E160 rollsdecisions1,850+160+685 10F52151137 rollsdecisions945+175+860 decisions750+170+1,020 52452decisions510+150+1180 Game 7D is a good demonstration of what can happen when you play too long. By dcision18 or so I was up nicely and I should have quit. However, I thought that I would look for a coupleof more winning wagers before quitting. As often happens, one bet led to another and I ended uplosing the entire betting sequence. I was angry enough with myself that I didn't play another gameof craps for almost three weeks. Casinos C and D eventually offered me additional incentives formy play and I ended up winning at baccarat in Casino C and roulette in Casino D. After my threesabatical from craps I continued playing craps, finishing this series of games with five straightwinning games. Here's what my craps play looked like in each casino: Casino A+440Casino B+380Casino C-145Casino D-285Casino E+345Casino F+345Casino G+150My average win was $98.33 per session including the two losses. Excluding the losses, Iaveraged $181.50 per winning session.I won ten out of twelve sessions for a session winning rate of 83.34%. It took an average of37.9 decisions per game. My average session took about thirty minutes of playing time. Since Iplayed twelve sessions, my total playing time was about six hours. To be fair, we should probablyadd another thirty minutes per session to allow for downloading the software, recording informationabout the casino and the record keeping which is an unfortunate but essential part of onlinegambling. This works out to about an hour per session. With total winnings of $1,180, for twelvehours work, this works out to about $98 an hour.This is not bad for a few hours work. However, as a general rule, the craps sessions tookmuch longer than sessions at either roulette or baccarat. Unless you really want to play craps I thinkyou will get more bang for your buck playing the other games.