Colorado and Florida Target Counties for Clinton - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Colorado and Florida Target Counties for Clinton

Group 1: Alex Lochard, Michael Kramer, Pieter De Wolf, Rachel Cohen Slide2

Problem Statement

During political campaigns, candidates and parties are faced with limited resources which include time and money. That being said it is important to invest resources in geographical areas that will produce the greatest amount of votesSlide3

Research Goal

Use several indicators based on political profile, voter profile, and population density to generalize votes

Clinton

and Trump are likely to obtain, then using ArcGIS evaluate which counties of the Republican party

Clinton

should put campaign effort to assure more votes for the general electionSlide4

Methodology

Determined which two states to analyze: Florida and Colorado, both major swing states in this upcoming election in which few votes may determine outcome of state’s winner which can determine the election

Determined factors that influenced voters choices: these included: age, sex, ethnicity, income, occupation, education, urban or rural setting, party affiliation, and voter turnout

Gathered data on all factors by county and created a joint shapefile of both states that included an attribute table including all data. Used this table to analyze each county Slide5

Methodology

I

n

F

inding

F

ocus

C

ounties

Created layers for each variable

Selected counties that were republican

Of those counties, used select by location to select counties that had attributes that favored Clinton

Selected Republican Counties that had a majority of the population between 18 and 34 and 65 and above

Selected Republican counties where women constituted a majority

Selected Republican counties where a majority of residents were non-white

Selected Republican counties where the median income was less than 50,000 dollars

Selected Republican Counties where education levels favored Clinton

Selected Republican counties where occupation favored ClintonSlide6

Methodology In Finding Focus

Counties

Created shape files from each selection

Repeatedly used select by location to find Republican counties that contained the most variables that favored Clinton

Used buffers and city selection of cities with population greater than 8000 residents to find ideal rally points in focus

countiesSlide7

Political Profile - Voter Turnout

by Party Affiliation

Blue counties represent Democratic Counties Slide8

Voter Profile - Education Indicator

Assume voters with a professional degree, high school diploma and less than high school education will vote for Trump, those with some college, Associate Degree, or Bachelor's Degree will vote for

Clinton

Purple counties represent Republican counties where education of population favors ClintonSlide9

Voter Profile - Gender Indicator

Assume women will vote for

Clinton

,

men will

vote for Trump

Orange counties represent Republican counties where women constitute a majority of the population Slide10

Voter Profile - Income Indicator

Assume those counties with Median Income > $50k will vote for Trump, those

<

$50k will vote for

Clinton

Green counties represent Republican counties where median income is below $50kSlide11

Voter Profile -

Ethnicity

Indicator

Assume that White and Asian populations vote for Trump, and Black, Hispanic, Pacific Islander, and American Indian populations vote for

Clinton

Green counties represent Republican counties where ethnicity of population favors Clinton Slide12

Voter Profile - Age Indicator

Assume ages 18-34, 65+ will vote for

Clinton

, 35-64 will vote for Trump

Gold counties represents

Republican counties where age favors Clinton Slide13

Population Density - Urban/Rural Indicator

Assume those in

r

ural areas will vote for Trump and

u

rban areas will vote for

Clinton

Pink counties represent Republican counties that are more urban and favor ClintonSlide14

Voter Profile - Occupation Indicator

Assume agriculture, finance, wholesale and transportation professions vote for Trump,

c

onstruction,

m

anufacturing,

p

ublic

a

dministration,

retail, e

ducation, arts and information professions vote for

Clinton

Green counties represent Republican counties that have occupation type populations that favor ClintonSlide15

ResultsSlide16
Slide17
Slide18
Slide19

Conclusions

Strongest indicators are party affiliation and voter turnout

Based on overlap of all the indicators evaluated Clinton should focus on these Republican counties where she has a chance to gain more voters:

Florida: Marion County, Manatee County, Highlands County

Colorado: Otero County, Denver County

In these counties, Clinton should consider having a rally in urban areas of these counties to win over voters.