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\n \n \r \nAngela Druckman, Elizabeth York, Amy Woodward, Paolo CampoUniversity of Surrey \r \n \n\r \n \r \n !"#$% \n &#\r& \n \r\r Introduction to food incidents and food scares Supply chain complexityTypology of scaresWhat turns a food incident into a food scare? Projects: How can we reduce their frequency and severity? Agent Based Model: How can improved information flows along food supply chains reduce waste caused by food scares? Food Incident Interactive Training Tool (FIITT) \n One hamburger from Burger King can contain ingredients from approximately 200 suppliers located throughout the United States and around the world. Scholl, 2005 cited in Choffneset al (2012) \n ' (# )( \n * +\r* \r\n Choffnes, E. R., Relman, D. A., Olsen, L., Hutton, R., & Mack, A. (2012). Improving Food Safety through a one Health Approach \n \n \r Choffnes, E. R., Relman, D. A., Olsen, L., Hutton, R., & Mack, A. (2012). Improving Food Safety through a one Health Approach \n ,\r\n\r \r* \r \n\n\n \r \n \r !" # $\r\r\r%\n \r\n& \r%$$\r\r'\r($ \r%\r( \n\r%\n &\r ) \n \n\r\n \n\r \n#* + , - .! \n )# \n\n \n\r \r\n \n#\r Farmer Animal diseaseExtreme events Processor Contamination microbiological/chemical/physicalAllergens Retailer Incorrect labelling \n \n\n The definition of food scare that we use here is: ' \n\r\n \r \r- # .\n \n\n \r\n\r \n#\r\r\r\n\r \r\n/ \n BSE meat from foreign cattle may be endingup in burgers China tainted milk scandal: Cadbury confirms melamine and 22 arrested Cucumber E.coliscare: UK shops reassure consumers as Spain demands compensatio Top supermarkets secretly sell halal: Sainsbury's, Tesco, Waitrose, and M&S don't tell us meat is ritually slaughtered Horsemeat scandal: Don't dump meat, says food minister Japan bans Fukushima rice shipment due to contamination New Zealand's Fonterra finds botulism bacteria in dairy ingredient Test reveals Fonterra milk powder didn't contain botulism bacteria It's all Double Dutch at Tesco as 'British' pork chops come from overseas 40 Tons of Tainted Pork Allegedly Sold in China Traces of melamine found in US-made baby formula Poisoned food in shops for 3 WEEKS: supermarkets clear shelves of cakes and quiches containing contaminated eggs from Germany \n Why do food scares matter? \n \n\r \n \r \r\n0#\n\n\r & /01% \r\n\r\r&2%3%4&\r&5\r6\r0 &\r & \n\r \n\r \r\r \n\r%7\r%'\r \n & \r\r\n \r\r \n \n\r \r\r \r & ' \n &6 & \r\r28\r\r !\n 9 \r \r \n (\r\r\r\r \r\n\r \n* \r 1 " 50100150200250300350400450 Number of incidents 2006, 1344 incidents 2008, 1298 incidents 2010, 1505 incidents 2012, 1604 incidents 2013, 1562 incidents 5$ -37:\n(4'( \n \r \r\n \r## 223 \r\n\r\r \r\r\n Food Scare Food incident Consumer Media \n ' 0 \r*\r\n \n\r# First media report 16 Jan 2013Continues to present dayMainstream article mentions: �21,000Volumes are based on a sample of mentions and do not encompass all mentionswww.gorkana.com/measurement-matters/measurement-matters/socialmediamonitoring/horsemeat-scandal/ \n #, BloggerDeliciousDiggFacebookFlickrGoogle+LinkedInMySpaceRedditRSSStumble uponTechnoratiTumblrTwitter You-tube \n #, Social Media has changed the way we: CommunicateAccess informationWhom we share information with Effect of scale and types of social media sources: Receive information multiple times Often contradictory www.gorkana.com/measurement-matters/measurement-matters/socialmediamonitoring/horsemeat-scandal/ \n #, Positive? ;\n&&\r\n \r% & %%' ;9$& \n\r$\r\n\n&&\r ;2\n Negative? ;9\n \n& 3 $\n& \r\n \r% \r#'\r\n\r ;5\r$$\r\n \n(% \r#&\r \r% &;2\n\n\r $\n$\r\r \r$& \r; \r=& (\r%\n& �.88;ã' $ \n \r \r\r\n \n \n \n\r#\r Tesco Aldi Lidl ASDA Sainsbury's The Co-operative Morrisons Waitrose IKEA Marks and Spencer www.gorkana.com/measurement-matters/measurement-matters/socialmediamonitoring/horsemeat-scandal/ Tesco \n \r \r\n \r## 223 \r\n\r\r \r\r\n Food Scare Food incident Consumer Media \n (\r\n \n Perception by industry Public are perceived as naïve and gullible their responses are often deemed irrational Beware of whoit effects: pregnant women, elderly Important issues for consumers What products affected?Nature of the incident? Consumers reaction Who to trust? Companies, news media, social media, government, specialist organisations? Brand loss Perceived frequency and severity of incidents \n \r \r\n \r## 223 \r\n\r\r \r\r\n Food Scare Food incident Consumer Media \n #\r* \r \r\n Time is of the essenceInformation Acquired quicklyAccuracy Usable formatEducate the consumer Trust Between industry stakeholders Between industry and the public It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it (Warren Buffet)Price wars Cheap is not always best Media There is a need for industry and government to improve their communication skills with the public It is essential that consumer interests are put first, and that the relevant organisation counters the misinformation with clear and accurate content. Sloan, Williams and Burnap. COSMOS Project, Cardiff University.software.ac.uk/blog/2014-08-28-going-viral-social-media-networks-intercepted-misinformation?mpw \n ' &#" \r British Retail ConsortiumCabinet Office strategy unitDEFRAEuropean CommissionEuropean food safety authorityFood and Agriculture Organisation of the UNFood and Drink FederationFood Standards AgencyForesight: Government Office for ScienceSoil AssociationWRAP .. \n ( \r&# No area of policy is dedicated to either food incidents or information flow along the supply chainsPromotion of more informative labelling for consumers More informed choice but not direct supply chain info A new strategy for increasing integrity and assurance of the Food Supply NetworkAcknowledgement that: Information is extensively collected in some areas; neglected in other areas Depending on stage of the supply chain and type of food product For there to be increased information there needs to be increased trust \n +\r \n## \r* \n \n\r# Elliott Report 2013 -Review into the Integrity and Assurance of Food Supply Networks-Interim report2014 -Review into the Integrity and Assurance of Food Supply Networks-Final report2014 -Government response to the Elliott review of the integrity and assurance of food supply networks Food and Drink Federation 2013 -Food Authenticity 5 steps to help protect your business from food fraud Food Standards Agency 2013 -Review of Food Standards Agency response to the incident of contamination of beef products with horse and pork meat and DNA.2013-Report of the investigation by the Food Standards Agency into incidents of adulteration of comminutedbeef products with horse meat and DNA \n &#\r& \n \r\r Introduction to food incidents and food scares Supply chain complexityTypology of scaresWhat turns a food incident into a food scare? Projects: How can we reduce their frequency and severity? Agent Based Model: Information Flows Food Incident Interactive Training Tool (FIITT) \n \r \r\r# \n#\r*\n#\r\n \n \n \n \n Development of an Agent Based Model To be used as a tool to increase understanding What information currently flows along supply chains?What are the barriers to information flows?What happens at the time of a food scare? Initial focus: beef mince and horsemeat scandalTo explore policy and governance strategies Based on Elliot Report recommendations \n 4\n #(\r\n Meat Beef mince Grain Bun Vegetable Lettuce, tomato \n "\n\n\r\n\r#\r\n # Simplification of the supply chainMapping information flows Qualitative and quantitative information Confidentiality issuesThe market : we are not taking account of price. Assume all products are in a suitable price range for the buyer Indicator Food waste \n # \r** \r Expert interviewsWorkshops \n "* \r\n Farmers Markets Abattoirs Processors Retailers Customers Butchers Government, Insurers etc. \n Retailer Customer Farmer WASTEDifferent agents with different attributesAttributes added to new products boughtAfter use-by-date product goes to waste \n GlobalTimeShocks ProductSold and bought along supply chainInformation as Attributes Attributes are added along the supply chainIf not consumed after period of time then goes to wasteWhen shock wasted if matching attributes FarmerSell to retailer sells in bulkAdd attributes to productsLearn from information levelDie if no stock for time period RetailerSell product customer individuallyBuy from farmer buys in bulkBuy if product has key attributesAdd attributes to productsDo not buy if sufficient stockMore probable to buy from previous supplierChooses whether to buyLearn from information levelDie if no stock for time period CustomersBuy if product has key attributesDo not buy if sufficient stockMore probable to buy from previous supplierChooses whether to buy60% of products are eaten under normal circumstances \n Retailer Customer Farmer WASTE \n \n \r*\r\r#\r*\n#\r\n Types of information (examples) Age / Date of BirthAnimal feed typeAnimal Passport Certification typeCountry of originDetails (e.g. Name, address, licence) for Farmer, Market, Abattoir, Processor, Retailer, ButcherElectronic recordsExisting relationship with seller Fat content / Visible LeanPackagingSamples available Sellers audit frequency and typeSlaughter dateSlaughter methodStorageVeterinary data \n Types of information (examples) Age / Date of BirthAnimal feed typeAnimal Passport Certification typeCountry of originDetails (e.g. Name, address, licence) for Farmer, Market, Abattoir, Processor, Retailer, ButcherElectronic recordsExisting relationship with seller Fat content / Visible LeanPackagingSamples available Sellers audit frequency and typeSlaughter dateSlaughter methodStorageVeterinary data Information issues IncorrectMissing \n \r*\r\r#\r*\n#\r\n \n ' #+\r )' #+\r )' #+\r )' #+\r ) How much information is available about the product as it passes along the supply chain? Based on information about each organisation involved in the supply chain, e.g. Implementation of management schemes (egISO22301 Business Continuity Standard )Audit regimes Compliance with recommendation of voluntary depositing of data in a central database (as recommended by Elliott 2014)Use of electronic vs paper information systems Availability of samples for testing Investigations for food fraud \n "3,, #5 6* \n AuditsCheck whether audits have been conducted and if not then the traceability is reducedCan change the amount of sampling Local Authority checks that companies are complying. Those who are not cannot sellMass balance and more focused audits are applied MediaEmbargo on press reports for a set period of time.Suggested times: 2, 5, 10 days Risk and responseCrime squad: if the stakeholders traceability ratio becomes too low then they will be penalisedInformation database -two levels: compulsory and voluntary. This affects the stakeholders traceabilityEach stakeholder has level of strategy which will affect their ability to sell in a scare. ProductsAll products removed from sale until they are proven to not be contaminatedorAll products left on sale until they are proven to be contaminated What happens in the scenarios? \n , Length Customers affectedTime (days) Long 33 Medium 17 Short 11 Magnitude Customers affectedTime (days) Low x1 Medium x2 High x4When the scare occurs the customers in the model will waste a percentage of the customers products according to the magnitude of the scare \n &#\r& \n \r\r Introduction to food incidents and food scares Supply chain complexityTypology of scaresWhat turns a food incident into a food scare? Projects: How can we reduce their frequency and severity? Agent Based Model: Information FlowsFood Incident Interactive Training Tool (FIITT) \n +\r \r+\r '\r\r*'#-++''. A tool for use by companies to test out their plans for what to do in the case of a food incident, and for training staff. Balance between speed of taking action with accuracy of knowledgeDealing with the mediaRecord keeping during incidentWho to talk to during a food incidentImplications of when decision is made to withdraw product \n +\r \r+\r '\r\r*'#-++''. " \r#\r ? \r@ A\r @ ?#8@ ?\n@ 2# \r ' \n\r@ \n 4\r $ 0 %$&72! 0 %$&9! %&\r \n 0 %$&A \r \n! '\r 0 %$&8 ! !"# $\r !%# & !'# SUBMIT (\r!' ! ) * !""!"'!"" \r( \r\r 0 %$& % \r \r! \n +\r \r+\r '\r\r*'#-++''. " \r#\r ? \r@ A\r @ ?#8@ ?\n@ 2# \r ' \n\r@ \n 4\rBBC: News at 10-Salmonella in bean sprouts. Should you worry?USER123: salmonella inbean sprouts! #scaredofsprouts#salmonellasprout $ \n \n\n \n %&\r \n Lawyer SUBMIT (\r!% ! $ ) \r( \r\r !"# $\r !%# !'# * !""!""!+, - !%# \n +\r \r+\r '\r\r*'#-++''. " \r#\r ? \r@ A\r @ ?#8@ ?\n@*2# \r ' \n\r@ \n 4\rDaily Mail: Salmonella in 10 states linked to raw sprouts Sprouthead: Afraid to eat my favourite! What to do? #scaredandconfused#salmonellasprouts $ %&\r \n \n\n '\r SUBMIT (\r!. !/ ) \r( \r\r !"# $\r !%# !%# * !""!""!.. \n 6\r "3, \r\r*# " \r#\r ? \r@ A\r @ ?#8@ ?\n@ 2# \r ' \n\r@ \n 4\r $ 0 %$&72! 0 %$&9! '\r 0 %$&8 ! !"# $\r !%# 0 !'# SUBMIT (\r!' ! ) * !""!"'!"" \r( \r\r 0 %$& % \r \r! \n +\r \r+\r '\r\r*'#-++''. Co-design and build -aim-fit for purpose-sharing knowledge, data and information-appropriate indicators of performance-platform-situations and use-online testing and piloting -Iterative process \n (\r#\n\r Participatory development of toolsA better understanding of the dynamics of food scares ClassificationRole of information Testing policies to reduce disruptions due to food scares Reduce frequency and severityReduce in food wastage and associated environmental burdensReduce wider economic and social losses