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www.giga-hamburg.de/workingpapersGIGA Research Programme: Violence, Power and SecurityBreaking the “Insecurity Trap”? How Violence and Counter-violence re Perpetuated in Elite Power StrugglesAndreas Mehler September 2008 87/2008GIGA   Studies   InstitutWorkingdisseminate 87/2008PerpetuatedAfricancountries,inventedpoliticalassassinations,Purges,particularlypeacefulThesefrequentlyAfricanRepublic,authorpreliminaryineffectivenessinsecurityobvious.internationalneedtheyappropriatemandate.coloniesbecomehasAfrica,AfricanRepublic,Affairs. „Unsicherheitsfalle“GewaltGegengewaltwerdenLebensangst.TatsächlicheerfundeneAttentate,VerprügelnOppositionspolitikern,VerbreitungsindgeradenachRegierungswechseln.Säuberungengeneigt,Gewaltanzuwenden,„Speisezimmer“Regierungversucht,vorliegende(ZentralafrikanischeRepublik,komparativeMechanismenoffensichtlichstaatlicherdurchbrechen.AkteurenäherkönnenMandatfranzösischerInterventionenallmählichvorbeugende ViolenceOutlinefrom Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesindividualsinteractingothersinstitutions,”canDobler(2008:2effortgraspmeaningthethegeneralstatementthathat in its most general sense is the assumptionorientedwillinginstitutions.attitudeexperienceexpectationssenseother’sdistinguishinstitutionalnormativeAccordingwith“peopleinstitution,theprotectassumeciviladministrationprovidethereceive.”opposite,frommayoutcomecontribution.However,politicians(trustthisshouldinsecurity,factorintroduction,theyAfricanAfricanRepublictheroleprotectionanalyzed. Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesmedia/InternetpreferablyfromAllcountriesvisitedanalysisassassinations,changes.differ,countriesAfricanRepublic)theelitecountriesequallyd’Ivoirehaselite.hypothesisthishaveoppositeAfricanRepublicd’Ivoireandcooperationexpectationsthecaseattemptsreceivedattention,duringsearchpeacetranslatedinternationalagendaaftercrisisonlyThe“internationalengagementfactor”peacemakingprovisioninternationalengagementinsecurity).means“smallfactor,“Frenchaccordingcomparativeconclusion.alternativeexplanationsdeveloped.theobviousAfricancountry;fromaboutAbovedifferentTheacademicviewforAfrica:                                                      Lambach12)usefulnessviolenceparadigmdifferentconflictcountriesdistinctionbeingintervention.” Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglestheimportancepeopleinfluencing(e.g.Quantin1995,Doeppprocess1999,Hillebrandandthoseunderstandingcontribution.analysistheanyAfricanrare.book(1983:13f)makeswelltotal1,000makeAfrica.includesfunctionalmembersthethejudgesandprosecutors,thethemainambassadors,directorsbusinessofficials.butseniorreligiousreplicatedelitessocietynumberconstantexpansionsizeAfricanRepublicnecessarytheprovidethemselvessecurity(2007:400)00) wealthyturningandwithwires,matatusbeforeMungikithatandshootings.”fromquotepovertystateweaknessgetHence,privateHowever,rich,rich.“thelargelylinkedpolitical(semi)privatethey Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesusuallythantheyvisiblepoliticallyviolence.includingviolencetrustsecurity—orsecurity—itthecommonsayAfrica:mainandpublicdominancerationalEngel/Erdmann2007).system.economicdeficienciessystems,andmarketmajorAfricanearly1980s.distributionconflicts—sometimesaspectnexusshuttingsinecureprofits.reacttheyimmediateinsurrectiondangerous.politiciansexplicitlysquadrons.”againsttheteachers)(Lemarchand/Martin1974)probablytheassassinationfreelyHutu                                                      knowledgesecuritylargermostwrongelitesecurityverywithoutclaimingonlycarefullyorderdiscernembossmentsecurity.”argument,regimesrangeturns,includingviolentcollapse,democratisation.”otherssurvivedunaltered,system”usingmanipulationcasesconsidered).However,decliningcapacitiescommon Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesandrepresentativesassassinationsheavypartyAugust2007threeandchairman2008,letteroppositionattackkilledexperiencesexperiencespoliticiansmurderAfricaSaharaattemptsThepoliticalassassinationsAbbasprovidedagainstmainbelievedpresidentialessentialquestionprotectionneedAfrica.politicallyviolence?massescontext,fromburglarymerenecessity.comparedthreatsprevented).andofficialstate,headquarters,publicbuildings,messagedangersthis.                                                      PubliqueBujumbura,AugustBBCGlobalNewsline—Political,August2007.www.bbc.co.uk,(access2008). Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesAfricansecurity;structuresandoutsideleastagenda.thiscontribution.ConfidentialdiscreteAfricanevidentfromoutsourcingthecommercial1995.short(Holmqvist2005:spectacularpresidentialcountry.example,Africa,Usually,InternationalDefenseSecurityBelgiumexchangeforMarinemilitia.andcontributionshedlightservicesmorepurposemanyAfricanheadshaveapparatusimmediatethoughtangibleinformationnextcirclegovernmentcorebuildings;assignmentsandultraloyal.republicansimilarsubstantialoverallbetterequippedrest                                                      SpiraldangerprivatisingriskinvestmentsOctoberaccessJune Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesparticularlyinterestingrecruitedAccusationsthatrecruitmenttheirrecruitmenthighlyengenderingheadstatethenmeanbothpoliticallycreatingparticularlyandheadsnervousgroups.ConstitutesInsecuritygovernmentfactor.changeresultpoliticalpositionsjudiciaryarmyonespecificdeviceselitesmandatesspecificcirclesusuallyforaccessingopportunitiestimescouldstrategythem.tendradicalintergrouprelations(Lemarchandconsequenceschangepatterngroupstrategic“homogenized,”andonlyvoteforoppositionheadedcannotbarredstanding.solutionundergroundregime.increasescompositestagenecessarilythe                                                      wouldlastparticularlyoccupiedmost Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesevenincludingthreatsthemembersrebellionrumorselite),spiralingevendistrustandserioussettlement.fromPerspectiveprovideeliteCentralAfricanRepublic,Liberia.AfricanRepublicAfricanRepublicpoliticalknowsother,elitesassassinationspoliticiansoccurred1965).(1966–1979)sometimesatrociousassassinations(includingmostlyKolingba’s(1981–1993)politicalassassinations.mastermindedrepublic(Bozizé/Patassé).President(1993–2003),again:providedassassinationbestworstrightsabusestogethermore                                                      thesecondterm1979leasteightrankingmilitaryofficerskilledunderBokassa’ssomecasesclosefamilykilledvictimoppositionheavyweightkilledduringmarchdirectresponsibilityKolingbacouldnotestablished. Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesexterminatingWhenprimeshortlatersonHervé,anotherassassinationattack),thewaspoliticianstargeted:shotagainstPatassé2001,handfulAbrou,chiefmemberssquads,amongconstitutionalcourt,apparentlyname(althoughretaliatoryThisRassemblementDémocratiquegeneral.MilitiaPatassé“eliminated”temporaryUganda).delayedsuspected2001,taking2003.violenceagainstmembersrecordedthreatenedwithsons;arrestedcorruption22,2005,shortlynearexchangedtheelements.alongshotattemptopponent                                                      Grelombe’sassassinationsamecontextmurdertheBozoum,withbrother)andBodoKolingba’sKembe,November1999.leduprisingratherseriousMandabamaincalledKarakomilitia.NovemberUnionsJanuaryconfirmed1999.Bangui,FrenchgmtService. Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesterribleexclusion:Patassé’spresidencystate,favoredrecruitingdemocraticallyrecruitshomePatassé.strategybeliefs,verypresentrhetoricalrulingpowerfrequently1996/97mutineersfollowers.initialandcomplex.“mixedJune2001rebellion.ledindictmentDefensewhosidingCongoleseBembaorderPatassévendettacontinued:Demafouth’sliketortured.strategy“deterrence”assert.violenttakeoverMarchPatassé’stheplacedthosechiefwithPatassé’stakingRépubliqueDémocratienorthwestthetheyelementsnewstrongliberators”andsubsequentlydismissed.themForcesrebellionnortheast.“security                                                      accusationsoundedcuriousLibérationsourcehistory. Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesforinsecurityquestionthe“Nationaltook1,200,thestateguess400–500Patassérealisticprovideandcritically—“thepoliticizationforces”politicalitsApril2008.thenewamongpotentialparticipantshimself(belatedly)therebellion.Servicesthe1996/97),reformrelied(sinceFORSDIRbecamefearedpoliticalrivalscivilfunctions,PatasséofficialFORSDIRtheonlyloyaloperationalarmforcescouldcategoricallystatedthatcouldanymeasuresrecommended[theSecretaryGeneral’s]SpecialRepresentativeexceptriskhisownsafety.”nameagain.wasandthepresidentialguardnot750–900members                                                      national—Commissiondéfensesécurité(conferencedocument,dated).Dic/actuC/newsCARind.html(access2007,2008,2008.Forcespécialedéfensedesinstitutionsrépublicaines,later:SécuritéPrésidentielledesNationsSeventhSecretaryMissionAfricanRepublic,(S/1999/788),para.Monde2/2007. Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesExternallyProtection—Privatelinkedagreement.countriescircleandcertainlymoreattestsduringreign,DackoSeptemberwitheredwhenKolingbaagain,1981,endingshortlived1981?comeoutside;ThiswhyPatassé1996/97threatfrom2002/03whenstafffromobviousassistance?Patasséforwith2006/07,Francenationalsforeignersattacked2002/03identical).involvementsaveregimesshowstheretheysimplyagreement.functionfulfilledPatassé/Bozizé1982,PatassévicinitycoupBozizé)—earlierimplicatedmutinies,thelives.armysecuritynotnegligible.AllhaveKolingba,thanfunctions2007:PatassénumberexternalFrench                                                      couldfleecommandoBanguiimprisonedtortured1991).candidates1999(AndréKolingba,Lakoué,PaulNgoupande,FidèleGouandjikaAbossolo)allegedPatasséintegratedintospecialunit.declarationpostedAugust Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesretiredandgeneralsandGuillouJuly2007)AccordingBarril’sextendedaspectmoneyfromdealsPatassé.aftermanagedFrenchadvisorscooperationPerez,Gen.GuillouSeptember1996).somewherewithpersonalearlyaftertakeoversendnumbertheGendarmerieBanguiwasrumoredChadiankilledAfricanAugust,SouthAfricanHowever,2008).may2007.mission(1,350mandate,whichonlyassistance1998/99).Securitythen                                                      sociétéSecrets,PaulBangui.comportementsouventubuesque.Ainsi,centrafricainconfiaitconstruireaqueducBanguiministrePauldétesteassimilésimpleemployeurguèredifficultésservices:Nationsunies,CentrafriquepillageCongo.”,Figaro,NovemberCentrafricainePresse,samesourceissuedmessageneighborhood,informationcommencésoirlapidésécuritéprésidentiellevenaitgendarmerie.”Monde(NovembersecuritypersonnelgavedivergingAfricainshommes)les(trentehommes)assurentsécuritépréféreraisdesmaisavonssoubresauts,traversétantmutineries,impossible.”LettreContinent,SeptemberMissions/minurcaM.htm Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesoneattributions,securityPatassé.couldconquestBanguiPatasséabroad).renewedmandateanymorepoliticians.extraordinaryregimeAfrica.coupleinventedreal,reignHouphouët19621963.1970,wantedrunprohibitedstandingrebellionheartlandrebellioncrushed1973sawfounderhadandexiledBurkinarecorded1990s,ledviolence.Gen.1999therumorsattemptedmultiplied2000.gunfireresidence.hours,termedWhiteevent,Palenfo’swererebellion,andcommandersarmedrebellion,(latercommanderandOuattaraForcesNouvelles/FN).2001,newlyHowever,anotherBurkina                                                      www.cemac.cf/TextesOfficiels/Actes/ACTEA07_2006.pdf(accesschronologicalaccountwww.etat.sciencespobordeaux.fr/_anglais/chronologie/ivorycoast.html(access2007:11. Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesHouphouëtalsoassassinatedAugust2002,Ivorianhave2002attackwhileassassinated,retaliationsquadronsGbagbo.squadscontinuedHowever,rebellionattemptcouldinterpretedthreateningattemptsagainstleaderattemptministerstormedtelevisionbuilding2003.excluded2004.KorhogoAnd2007;remainedsecuritytakesessionswereheldunderstandable.and2008fourforcoupattemptbelievedagainstpoliticalfurthercircles29,2005,rankingarmytheywereOneheart2006:67).Augustletteranothervictimactivitiessquadsmentioningnamessquadcloseregime.Doué,                                                      ICGNovember9f).FirstMissionAugustp.5.SecretaryMissiond’Ivoire,Augustp.7.Monde,17.8.2005.ProbablymostprominentvictimsdeathssquadsduringAbidjan;FPIheavyweightleaderLuiscomedian Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesNovemberthis ‐ plans ‐ experiencedreflectthreatspersonalneeds.provisionwerepublishedHouphouëtHowever,fundamentally,includingsecurityrelevancesecurityexclusionaryregime.numberlikelyCameroon(1,200),qualificationsIntra1980swhenwellremuneratedHouphouëtNervousness1993.politicaldueltensionsideology1990s.provideddistinctionsecondelectionscandidatescouldmother);directexclusionaryviolentpresidentialtwoRassemblementRépublicainsFPI.theycertainlythecreatecultivated                                                      Figaro,AugustAfrique,August–318–26August2006.Givenoverallaboutmillion(2007)—Cameroonequallymillionsocioeconomicdevelopment,countriesdecadesdevelopmentuntilPopulationGeohive(www.xist.org/cntry/accessDocuments:ivoirité,immigrationConseilsocialPolitique(2000) Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglessplittingquickgovernmentantiforoppositionleadersbuiltincludingrulingparty.rebellionmarkedeliteassassinationsandagreements,stateministers,”intendedGbagboinclusive,stoppedcompaniesbroughtServicesHouphouët1960smilitiaethnicpersonalprotectionHowever,roleWhenRepublicanGuéi2000elections,sympathizerstookfacedindiscriminatelycourse,highlywhetherthisseenimmediateRepublicantenGuardJanuaryTheroughlymemberscountedThecommandermastermindsquadscouldformalparamilitaryand7,600(out17,050proved                                                      compositionfrequentlyreshuffledwww.abidjan.net/gouvernement/GouvernGbagbo’sAugustoutbreakrebellion.www.freemedia.at/cms/ipi/freedom_detail.html?country=/KW0001/KW0006/KW0151/&year=2005(access Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesExternallyProtection—PrivateHouphouëtBoignyassistance,notleastandprotectedagreementchangehadrepercussionswaypresidentsprobablyregime2007),not.2002civilFrancerebellion,activateFaso).Gbagbo’sadherentslaterFrenchtroopsGbagbothe2004crisis.WhetherjustifieddemonstratedtheparanoiasurroundingpresidentialsecurityCôted’Ivoirefollowing1999.ambassador’soppositionpoliticians.French“Christmashorse”2000,membersPalenforescuedrebellion2002,ambassadornexttheembassyflownCanadianIvorianadvisors”mysterious“action19881997FraternitéambassadorBarril;thethe2002rebellion,BarrilarrestedthewithnewthereforeformerAfricarecord:workedpresidentPatasséformerassassinationfollowingBarrilbuildintelligenceandconduct                                                      LettreContinent,MayOctoberAccordingPatriote, Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStruggleswhenFrenchagencythenGuillourecruitingsurprisingGbagbotriedd’Ivoire.wereBulgaria,Africa,Ukraine,Kingdomprocurement,andmaintenanceCôte(UNOCI)—at9,168civilianandforprovisionforCôtemandatethiscreatingconstantlydemandsmembers2006Abidjansessionmonthsabsence,withoppositionpoliticiansOuattaraadditionalcorps.securitycouplejunior1980havocduringshowgovernmentexecutedpublicly.managesoonbitter                                                      LettreContinent,JanuaryExpertspursuantCouncild’Ivoire(S/2005/699),162www.un.org/Depts/dpko/missaccess2008.containedfollowingwithauthorities,securityforNationalReconciliation,Council,(2005),Council(S/RES/1609),progressNationsCôted’Ivoire,JanuaryS/2006/2,accountgivenwww.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1985/liberia_1_april12coup.htm(accesstotalcasualtiesduringcoup.                                                                                          Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesleaderscoupGen.CommandingGeneralbelievedstrongmanjunta,demotedsubsequentlyattemptdangersoon,theattempted1985.60).whichQuiwonkpapartrepression(aswereEliteexclusiontranslatedthetheethnicmembers.AmosSawyer,theoppositionpoliticianswasarrested1984forallegedlyplanning“socialist”professor,couldthestudents,againstarrest.Doesecurityforcesstormcampus.Thisandimmediateandsustaineduniversitythemostimportantrecruitmentbasiscivil1989,orderedviolenceagainstsympathizers(NPFL),series(Ellis76f).himselfdefectedrebelJohnson.atrociouswinner1985elections,(noapparentlyleadingpositionTaylor’snumbermonth1997,governmentsubsequentlyconstantrebelhadsupportfromReconciliationd’Ivoire(Movement2003.coupplotimplicatedspeakerTransitionalofficerimplicateplot,including                                                      Confidential,August2008:178. Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStruggleshouseParty’sstandardGeorgeDemocraticstandardcredibilitywitness2008.haspopulationorganizational400–500eliteaspects.state(1820/1847).MonroviacentercontroloverAmericocountry,thehandfulrulecountries“frommilitaryWilliam(1971–1980)apoliticalgovernment.Americobackgroundriots”1979,intervenedrefusedrecruitedfellowthestartopensecuritymilitarycivil1989.strongestwasfamilyobvious“indigenous”281)civilwarpoliticsmeans,                                                      www.analystliberia.com/i_was_asked_to_implicate_opposition_leaders_(accesswww.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1985/liberia_5_militaryandgovt.htm(access2008)recruitedKrahnEllis(1990:Krahnsexcluded Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesStill,                          butbutneopatrimonialdominant.changedagreement2003—invictorygovernmentthetheirministerthoserecruitfollowerschiefJacquescriticized).speakerDwehinvolvementdeathsquadduring(1980–90).nameresolution,outside,ordercouldnewfoundprogressthe2003.importantStill,2005,seemedoutcometowardsrepublicanafterhesitationfootballGeorgedefeat.consequences2005andrepresentativesthethemfamousthen1990assassination.AdolphusformerTaylor,mightvoters“respondedmoresensewhenanotheraidesonmademanagingCompanygovernment,embezzledforJustice)electingandmoneyandwomen                                                      Ellis:Liberia,in:Africa2004,Leiden:BrillrelativemajorityroundelectionsfavorSirleafsecond(59.4%40.6%SeeNationalElectionsCommissionwww.necliberia.org/results/(accessEllis:Liberia,in:Africa2005,Leiden:Brill Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesanything.”sent:electedspeaker2007whenannouncedJanuary2006,broughtandTolbert.themanagingForestryMinistercousin).thatpoliticalnumerousperceivedcontinuities.inclusivecourseforLeoneLiberia—wherecommittedcrimesbutobviousthecollaboratedmandates,althoughtaintedexplain.virtuallymemberincludingcapacitiesquarterhe/sherealcommunity,2008).permitsphases                                                      www.liberianobserver.com/news/fullstory.php(accesscourseparliamentaryincomingincludefourtheycouldtravelAccra,dueaffectedincludedSnowe,JewelTaylor,Dolo,anothermilitiageneral,FarleySource:ewsID=917&cat=libmedia(accesstravellistunderwww.un.org/News/Press/docs/2005/sc8569.doc.htmcourseobviouslyimpedecriminalsfromelections.stumbledconfidence,backgroundfoundAfricaFebruaryEllis:Liberia,in:Africa2006,Leiden:Brillp.116.courseelectedlegislatorswithlessintriguingtheymajority.seefamousdreadedcolleagues. Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesServicesthestatefor1974memberguardmenwar.LiberationLiberiarebelparallelChuckie.specialparticular1966.president,his/herdignitaries,protectionexecutivemansion.2005,SSSstrengthincludingciviliantransitionalhowever,$900,000requiredfinancialassistance.receiveddiscussions2005circlesbeliefmanifestedexistinginstrumentsnotthatnext500additionthe3,500formed.specializedunit,fromLiberianSupportUnit,haverobustlyinternal                                                      StephenEllis’testimonyHagueNPFLleaders,probablyhttp://charlestaylortrial.org/2008/01/18/1130crossexaminationprosecutionwitnesselliscontinues/(access2008).Council:reportSecretaryMission(S/2005/764),2005.SecurityCouncil:EleventhSecretaryUnitedMission(S/2006/376),Legitimateoligopoliesviolencesocieties(Liberia,GermanFoundationResearch.Council:GeneralMission(S/2007/151),2007. Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesExternallyProtection—Privatesecurityadvisorswhonothand,presidentialbroad1980–2003.currentUNMILmostwithstrength15,000,sufficientguaranteethecurrentcannotextraconstitutionalmeans,militarystays.UNMIL’smandateprovisionsecurityinstallations,particularandConfidential2006).devicesenjoyedperhapstemptingofferAfricamilitaryheadquarterssummerdifferently:withthroughofferingforheadquarters.governmentAFRICOMheadquarterswithoutpermanentdiscussionssecuritymakingtargetbuyingconsciencepresenceelementsbrieflysynopsis                                                      SecurityCouncil2003,2003,3c,f,g,i.(Monrovia),http://allafrica.com/stories/200707060807.html,2008.)section”attestssoil.www.africom.mil/africomFAQs.asp(access2008).underwww.theperspective.org/(access Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesLiberiasecurityneedsexclusionservicesbased homogenizationmilitaryunderKolingba,underPatassé,underpresidential900explicitlimitedachievements,Frenchduringcoups ElectoralmanipulationssideliningelitessincecoalitionsRepublicanGuard,1,350;ultraloyalexplicitefforts,limitedachievements,French(1999,2002) secure,ExclusionuntilGioandunderunderinclusivegovernanceagenciesmostSSS,securityundersystematiceffortssince Author’scompilation.listassassinationsarrestsplots,coupsinsecurity1960s,interruptions.fullwithcoupforeverformoment,civilassassinations2003,providinghascivilcomparativelywerestate’spersonnel.leftcommercialfactorsoutFrance’scomparedLiberia.willingpreventcoups19812003,Ivoriancrisis2002 Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStruggles1979againstbringingmutiniesCAR1996/97providing2006/2007;politiciansproximityhavingwide)coupeliteofferingAfricaCommand—totoppoliticians1980andtheoptionspowerfulmayhaveharmfulrolefordarkestrepublicrecordhascomplicatedanalyze.majorreductioninvolvementAfricanmonitoringeffect.relationpopulation,assassinationbefore2003andinternationalpreventedMINURCA(1998–2000)engenderedtimecomparedmeantPatassé’smaycontributedatmospherePatassé’sreign.insufficient”theengagementAlthoughmemberssmallharassmentcausehence,insecurity.theoreticaland(Axelrod1984)would Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesanalysis,explanationwasminister(1992).1993standingGuéiousted1995,Guéiandandrebellionelements2002.Patassé,underdoesanalysis—basedqualitativecomparison—comessize);othercouldincludingcomplicated.providebasisthe“factionalizedStateIndexFundindicatorsrulingstateinstitutionsandpoliticalrulingtermscommunalirredentism,‘ethnicfaith’).”givesCARvalueLiberiarecentafteragreement2003.“fragmentation”rhetoric”countriesassassinationandcoupassassinationsphenomenonHowever,Boigny,methodswentunnoticed.meansandbuildingdatabasesimple                                                      kindopaque:specialindexessourceusingpowerfulcollectionsystemincludeslocalmediapublicdocuments.”www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=229&Itemid=366 Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesneeds—forwellveryunderstandablereactionscooperatingsecurityexile,mandatemissionsmaycompanies,limited.insistenceintoethnichomogenization,haveexplanatoryvalue.thetransitionpredictabsencelevelviolencebecomesd’Ivoire1990sattestcontroversial1997.“historical”1993,attemptedforcivilcorrectlyelectedpoliticianstheiradditionally,privilegedrebellion.exclusionaryfor“insecurityexclusion—thedrivingreversedincludingintoreproducingprovedrebuiltwhentherespectedmainwhenonce!). Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStruggles2004:MilitaryCrisesAfriakinstitutet.ViolenceAfrica,ReviewAfrican384.Axelrod,RobertThestates,truststates.(introductioncollectivework,1989:Afrique.politique2003:1999:(nonAfriquesubsaharienne,CentreAfrique1999:DestructionReligiousAfrican2005:Liberia,AndreasAfrica2004,109.2006:Liberia,AndreasYearbook2005,Leiden:Concept,and(1),Hillebrand,1993:DemokratisierungRecycling:BeispielSpectrum,InternationalforStudies2008,InternationalRépubliquefantôme,Afrique136,ICG.OligopoliesViolenceSocieties,62,Martin,Burundi,Minority2006:AfricaLeiden: Mehler:ViolenceandCounterviolencePerpetuatedElitePowerStrugglesL’EtatAnnéeAfricaine1977,Andreas2005:shakyadverselimitedtransitionCentralAfricanRepublic,Villalón/VonDoepp2005,126152.Terriblecolonialmovements‘Africa:explanationviolenceagainstModernAfrican(2),181215.forAfrican391416.L’héritageL’Harmattan.Chroniquecrise1997:Patrickcomparativeafricaines,Africaine69,26.AmosLiberia’s2005107199.AmosconflictsAfrica:Studies,463.Guillaumedevenurebelle.Villalón,2005:TheAfrica’s2005. 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