Will these hightech industry elements continue in short supply By Keith R Long Mineral Resource Analysts Western Mineral and Environmental Resource Science Center Tucson AZ World Production of Rare Earths as Oxides 2009 ID: 1024580
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1. The Future of Rare Earth ElementsWill these high-tech industry elements continue in short supply?By Keith R. Long, Mineral Resource AnalystsWestern Mineral and Environmental Resource Science CenterTucson, AZ
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5. World Production of Rare Earths as Oxides 2009Total Production of ~130,000 metric tons REO
6. Use CategoryShare by Volume %Share by Value %Growth Rate %Catalysts2254 to 7 Magnets223710 to 16Metal alloys201415 to 20Polishing946 to 8Glass92negligiblePhosphors5317 to 10Other1375 to 9Principal Use Categories for Rare Earths
7. CATALYSTSAutomotive Catalysts6,000 tpy REOCe (90%) La (5%) Nd (3%) Pr (2%)Oxygen storage, carbon removalFluid Cracking Catalysts18,400 tpy REOLa (90%) Ce (10%)Petroleum refining – cracking heavy moleculesIncreases per barrel yield by 7 to 10%
8. MAGNETSRare earth magnets are stronger per unit weight and volume than any other magnet type. Used wherever weight and space are at a premium.26,500 tpy REONd (69%) Pr (23%) Dy (5%) Tb (0.2%) also Sm
9. METAL ALLOYSNiMH Batteries use La Ni anode to protect against corrosion and increase battery lifeLa (50%) Ce (33%) Nd (10%) Pr SmPrius battery pack has 10-15 kg LaMischmetal a La Ce alloy used to purify steel and for special alloysCe (52%) La (26%) Nd (17%) Pr (5%)22,500 tpy REO
10. POLISHINGCerium powders polish glass and silicon better than any other substance. Cerium oxide polishes by chemical reaction rather than abrasion.15,000 tpy REOCe (65%) La (32%) Pr (3%)
11. GLASSLanthanum makes up as much as 50 percent of glass lenses for digital cameras, including cell phone cameras.Cerium is added to optical lenses and other specialty glass to inhibit UV transmission.12,500 tpy REOCe (66%) La (24%) Nd (3%) Pr (1%)
12. PHOSPHORSY, Eu, and Tb phosphors are the RGB phosphors used in all types of light bulbs, display panels, and televisions.9,000 tpy REOY (69%) Ce (11%) La (9%), Eu (5%) Tb (5%) Gd (2%)
13. OTHERLa and Nd are used to stabilize current in ceramic capacitors. Y and Ce are used to stabilize zirconia ceramics, such as those used in solid oxide fuel cells.REE-bearing fertilizer is used in China. Rare earths have no known biological function.8,500 tpy REO – Ce La Y Nd Pr Sm Gd7,000 tpy REOY (53%) La (17%) Ce (12%) Nd (12%) Pr (6%)
14. World Production by CountryCHINAProduction in metric tons REO (rare earth oxides)
15. REO Production TrendsMonazite-placer │ Mountain Pass │ Chinese era → ? era eraSources: USGS Fact Sheet 087-02 updated with recent USGS Minerals Yearbook
16. Types of Rare Earth DepositsCarbonatite and Peralkaline Intrusive-Related (71,000 tpy REO)There are very rare intrusive rocks found in rift zones. REE-minerals may be rock-forming minerals or may be deposited by hydrothermal activity in veins.Heavy Mineral Placers (4,000 tpy REO)Monazite, a common REE-bearing accessory mineral in igneous, metamorphic, and sedimentary rocks, may be concentrated with other heavy minerals in placer deposits.Residual (45,000 tpy REO)Intense weathering of carbonatite and peralkaline intrusives may form concentrated residual deposits or REE minerals. REE-laterite in south China result from weathering of tin granites.
17. Bradley Van Gosen, U.S. Geological Survey
18. Bokan Mountain U-REE Vein Deposit, AlaskaBradley Van Gosen, U.S. Geological Survey
19. Heavy Mineral Sand DepositsSmall quantities of monazite-(Ce) are sometimes recovered as a by-product Australia
20. Ionic Clay DepositsAbout 0.5 percent TREO in a readily leached form in laterite formed on “tin” granites in southern China.Many of these deposits are enriched in HREE.A significant source of REE, especially HREE, but resources are rapidly being depleted.Mining of these deposits in South China by undercapitalized small operators is environmentally problematic.T. Tagaki, Geological Survey of Japan
21. Operating REE Mines
22. REE Mine Development Projects
23. Advanced REE Mine Projects
24. Reserves and ResourcesAs reported according to SEC, NI 43-101, JORC, or SAMREC standards except for figures in italicsCountryReservesmetric t TREOResourcesmetric t TREOAustralia1,434,0001,588,000Brazil48,000Canada8,083,000Greenland875,000India3,100,000Kyrghyzstan49,000Malawi107,000Malaysia30,000Russia1,700,000South Africa977,000Sweden447,000United States1,009,000589,000
25. MiningMining of rare earth deposits is by conventional open pit and underground methods.Mountain Pass, CAPea Ridge, MO
26. Mineral ProcessingCARequires two steps: (1) separate REE minerals from other minerals; (2) separate individual REE.Mountain Pass, CA Source: Molycorp, Inc.
27. Separating Rare Earth MineralsFroth flotation is the most common method for separation of rare earth minerals from other minerals in ore.
28. Separating Individual REESolvent extraction uses small differences in solubility between individual REE. REE minerals are leached with an acid or base, then mixed with an organic chemical that strips a selected REE.
29. Cost to Produce REOOperationOperating CostUSD/kg TREOSourceMountain Pass2.77MolycorpChina5.58MolycorpMount Weld7.00MolycorpNechalacho3.70*Avalon Rare MetalsStrange Lake0.51**Quest Rare MineralsReported Operating Costs at Full Production*Calculated from data reported in preliminary economic assessment.**Calculated from data reported in a preliminary economic assessment after deducting co-product revenue from costs.
30. Principal Operating CostsReagents – Chemicals used to leach REE from concentrates, usually sulfuric or hydrochloric acidPower – Electrical power required for mineral processing operationsFuel – Diesel fuel used for blasting and for operating mine equipmentCommon Element: Cost of energy
31. Cost to Develop a New REO MineOperationCapital CostUSD millionsCapital Cost USD per metric t REO capacityMount Weld56671,000Nolans Bore*49923,000Nechalacho*89545,000Strange Lake*54855,000Kvanefjeld*2,31062,000Bear Lodge**87?Mountain Pass68117,000Exchange rates used: AUD:USD 1.0616:1; CAD:USD 1.0286:1.*Operation with significant co-product production.**Capital cost for mine and flotation plant only.
32. Time to Develop a New MineUnited States14 major metal mines started production in the USA since 2000Minimum time from permit application to commercial production was six yearsMaximum time was 23 yearsAverage around 10 yearsExcludes pre-permitting exploration, environmental baseline studies, and feasibility studies
33. Time to Develop a New MineElsewhereHave not yet done a detailed analysis of lead times for mines in other countriesNolans Bore, Australia – Plans to submit its permit application this year and start production later this year with full commercial production by end 2012Projects in northern Canada constrained by short exploration seasons and logistical difficulties
34. Scenario Analysis Future REO CapacityCountryOperation20112012201320142015-2016AustraliaDubbo003,8003,8003,800Mount Weld11,00022,00022,00022,00022,000Nolans Bore020,00020,00020,00020,000CanadaNechalacho00008,000Strange Lake000010,000GreenlandKvanefjeld000037,000IndiaChavara2,7002,7002,7002,7002,700MalaysiaIpoh450450450450450RussiaLovozero3,0003,0003,0003,0003,000South AfricaSteenkampskraal005,0005,0005,000United StatesBear Lodge000010,000Mountain Pass3,00019,05040,00040,00040,000Total:20,15067,20096,95096,950161,950
35. Scenario Analysis REO Supply20112012201320142015-2016SupplyChina115,00095,00095,00095,00095,000ROW Max20,00067,00097,00097,000162,000ROW Min9,00047,00068,00068,00068,000World Max135,000162,000192,000192,000257,000World Min124,000142,000163,000163,000163,000DemandDemand Max140,000150,000170,000190,000210,000Demand Min130,000130,000150,000170,000190,000Major uncertainties include Chinese production, scheduling of new capacity after 2014, and future demand for REO.
36. Historic REO Price TrendsSource: Lynas Corp
37. Worst Case ScenarioRavensthorpe integrated nickel mine and refinery, Western AustraliaClosed 1/2009 Sold 12/2009Cost AUD 2 billion – 700 million more than projectedNever achieved commercial productionThe worst case scenario is that either or both Mount Weld or Mountain Pass are unable to achieve commercial production due to technical problems.
38. ConclusionsREE will continue to find increasing use due to their unique properties.There is a realistic possibility around 2015‒2016 of sufficient REE capacity to meet demand under conditions of healthy price competition.REE supplies will be tight and prices high for a few years.There is significant downside risk that newly developed mines will not perform as planned.
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40. USGS REE Resources & ActivitiesNMIC REE Page http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/rare_earths/NMIC REE SpecialistDan Cordier dcordier@usgs.gov(703) 648-7723Minerals at Risk and For Emerging Technologies Project (ends this year)Future Project?
41. USGS REE PublicationsThe Principal Rare Earth Elements Deposits of the United Stateshttp://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5220/