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DE9B) -10; 000;?)EF@) -10; 000;I8B7@=) -10; 000; -10; 000;DF=E)F6:)6DE86AAI)@BE@=@;)9BE -10; 000;)@HA -10; 000;IH@BEG))3AEF -10; 000;87F)EF@);@DA9B@)9B)E9H@)E -10; 000;)ÃUVWMREIURPWKHROGHVWFRKRUWWRWKH\RXQJHVWFRKRUW ))) =@79B:)K9EF)6)7=@6E@=)= 15 ;C6C9A9EI) 15 ;?)? 15 ;=H6A)@HA 15 ;IH@BE)6=@)H 15 ;=@)A9L@AI)E 15 ;):@6=DF)? 15 ;=):8DF)@HA 15 ;IH@BE)6B;)WKHUHIRUHWDNHORQJHUWRDFFHSWWKHLUÃUVWMRE3:)H@BE9WKHUHIRUHWDNHORQJHUWRDFFH
27 SWWKHLUÃUVWMRE&
SWWKHLUÃUVWMREB@;)9B)EF@)H@EFWKHUHIRUHWDNHORQJHUWRDFFHSWWKHLUÃUVWMRE;WKHUHIRUHWDNHORQJHUWRDFFHSWWKHLUÃUVWMREAWKHUHIRUHWDNHORQJHUWRDFFHSWWKHLUÃUVWMRE7I):@DE9WKHUHIRUHWDNHORQJHUWRDFFHSWWKHLUÃUVWMREB)6CWKHUHIRUHWDNHORQJHUWRDFFHSWWKHLUÃUVWMREJ@N)K@)DQDO\]HWKHGHWHUPLQDQWVRIGXUDWLRQWR
28 3;ÃUVWMREXVLQJ6
3;ÃUVWMREXVLQJ6);9:D=@E@SE9H@)F6\6=;)HJ;@A)K9EF)BJBS6=6H@E=9D)E9H@);@@B;@BD@G))+F@)K 15 ;=L9B7):6HA@)9BDA8;@:)^N]]P)I 15 ;8B7)H@B)67@:)]e)E 15 ;)^a)KF 15 ;)D 15 ;HA@E@;)6E)A@6:E)6B)8@=):@D 15 ;B;6=I)@;8D6E9 15 ;BG))( 15 ;K@J@=N):9BD@)EF@);6E6)? 15 ;=)EF9:)H 15 ;;@A)9:)H6;@)8) 15 ;?)9B;9J9;86A):@AA:)=6EF@=)EF6B)9B;9J9;86A:N)EF@)E 15 ;E6A)B8HC@=) 15 ;?):@AA:) 15 ;C:@=J@;)? 15 ;=)EF@:@)9B;9J9;86A:)6:)EF@I)E=6B:9E9 15 ;B)?= 15 ;H):DF 15 ; 15 ;A)E 15 ;)K 15 ;=L)9:)]PNOa^G):HSUHVHQWLQ7DEOHWKHH[SRQHQWLDWHGFRHIÃFLHQW
29 V ))) (0.075) Rural
V ))) (0.075) Rural Lower Egypt 1.050 (0.081) Rural Upper Egypt 1.220* (0.102) Spell Dummies included included included $OWKRXJKZHFRXOGXVHWKHFRQWLQXRXVQRUPDOL]HGMRE @9EF@=)6)?=H6A)DBE=6DE)=):D96A)9B:8=6BD@)DJ@=67@G))$9B6AAIN))9BDA8;@:)販 -1; 0;CEF)EF@)D9J9A):@=J9D@)6B;)EF@) )))))))))[O)))))))))))))]e/8CA9D)))))))))))))))))R)))))))))))))))))))))R])))))P)))))))))]O))))))))))))))``4B?=H6A)) Pr(poor) Pr(fair) Pr(good) Pr(Formal) Pr(Public) Base Probability for Reference
30 Individual 0.024 0.591 0.384 0.451 0.24
Individual 0.024 0.591 0.384 0.451 0.244 Change due to one unit change in: Birth Cohort (Ref: 1971-75) 1976-1980 (d) 0.018** 0.073*** -0.092*** -0.104*** -0.100*** (0.006) (0.019) (0.023) (0.026) (0.022) 1981-1985 (d) 0.027*** 0.094*** -0.121*** -0.201*** -0.147*** (0.008) (0.021) (0.026) (0.030) (0.026) 1986-1990 (d) 0.022* 0.082** -0.103** -0.263*** -0.130*** (0.010) (0.029) (0.038) (0.047) (0.038) Local Labor Market Variables 0.000 0.004* 0.001 (0.000) (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) 0.002 0.002 0.001 (0.000) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) 0.002
31 -0.001 (0.005) (0.063) (0.0
-0.001 (0.005) (0.063) (0.067) (0.073) (0.081) Post-secondary 2yrs (d) -0.019*** -0.218*** 0.238*** 0.230*** 0.281*** (0.005) (0.035) (0.037) (0.038) (0.043) University & higher (d) -0.022*** -0.333*** 0.355*** 0.304*** 0.317*** (0.005) (0.022) (0.024) (0.026) -0.043 -0.101* (0.042) (0.039) Rural Lower Egypt (d) 0.028*** 0.097*** -0.126*** -0.069 0.024 (0.008) (0.027) (0.033) (0.040) (0.037) Rural Upper Egypt (d) 0.104*** 0.152*** -0.255*** -0.153*** -0.015 (0.018) (0.032) (0.033) -0.043 -0.101* (0.007) (0.0
32 23) (0.028) (0.034) (0.027) Presence of
23) (0.028) (0.034) (0.027) Presence of Household Enterprise HH has farm enterprise (d) -0.004 -0.025 0.029 -0.137*** -0.074** (0.003) (0.023) (0.026) (0.032) (0.027) HH has non-farm enterprise (d) 0.023*** 0.086*** -0.110*** -0.153*** -0.137*** (0.007) (0.016) (0.019) (0.025) (0.022) Region of Residence (Ref: Greater Cairo) Alexandria & Suez Canal (d) 0.010 0.046 -0.055 -0.051 0.027 (0.007) (0.030) (0.036) (0.042) (0.039) Urban Lower Egypt (d) 0.017* 0.070* -0.087* -0.054 0.047 (0.008) (0.030) (0.036) (0.043) (0.041) Urban Upper Egypt (d) 0.041*** 0.118*** -0.160***
33 -0.095* 0.029 (0.010)
-0.095* 0.029 (0.010) (0.028) (0.034) (0.042) (0.039) Rural Lower Egypt (d) 0.028*** 0.097*** -0.126*** -0.069 0.024 (0.008) (0.027) (0.033) (0.040) (0.037) Rural Upper Egypt (d) 0.104*** 0.152*** -0.255*** -0.153*** -0.015 (0.018) (0.032) (0.033) (0.044) (0.041) N 2637 2637 2637 Pseudo-R2 0.1832 ZLWKWKHW\SHDQGTXDOLW\RIWKHÃUVWMRE$VH[SHFWHGWKHAHK@:E)=6E@:)H?)E=6B:9E9HB)6=@)?=HH)EF@):@A?S@HA 15 ;IH@BE) 15 ;=)@HA 15 ;I@=):E6E@:)6B;)?= 15 ;H)8CA9
34 D):@DE 15 ;=)K 15 ;=LG))+F@):@D
D):@DE 15 ;=)K 15 ;=LG))+F@):@D 15 ;B;)ORZHVWUDWHVRIWUDQVLWLRQWRVHFRQGMREVDUHIRUSULYDWH :@@H:)E)F6J@)C@@B)=@J6A@BE)9B)4=6B)? 15 ;=): 15 ;H@)E9H@)M:@@)? 15 ; 15 ;EB 15 ;E@)f)9B)%7@A)6B;)'6A@F9S4:?6F6B9)OP]PQG))4E)=@H69B:)E 15 ;)C@):@@B)KF@EF@=)EF@)DF6B7@)9B)=8A@:)9B)%7IE)K9AA)A@6;)WRVKRUWHUMREGXUDWLRQVLQWKH(J\SWLDQIRUPDOVHFWRU!@)BK)HJ@)E)6)H8AE9J6=96E@)6B6AI:9:)?)EF@);@E@=H9B6BE:)?)EF@)F6\6=;)?)E=6B:9E9B)E)6):@DB;)MRE
35 011;$VLQ
011;$VLQWKHFDVHRIWKHWUDQVLWLRQWRWKHÃUVWMRE The Cumulative Probability of Getting a Second Jobby Year Since Entering First Job for the Reference IndividualKD]DUG7KHH[SRQHQWLDWHGFRHIÃFLHQWVKD]DUGUDWLRV6=@):FKB)9B)+6CA@)]]N)6B;)EF@)6=6H@E@=:) 5 0;?)EF@):@AA);8HH9@:)9B;9D6E9B7)EF@):F6@) 5 0;?)EF@)C6:@A9B@)F6\6=;)6=@):F 5 0;KB)9B)3@B;9V)+6CA@)3OG))0 5 0;;@A)]N) 5 0;8=)C6:@A9B@)H 5 0;;@AN)9BDA8;@:)EF@)C6:9D):@E) 5 0;?)=@7=@:: 5 0;=:)EF6E)K@=@)6A: 5
36 0;)LQFOXGHGLQWKH
0;)LQFOXGHGLQWKHKD]DUGPRGHOIRUWLPHWRÃUVWMRE0RGHOa)9B)+6CA@)eQN)B6H@AIW)DOFO=EN)E9H@SJ6=I9B7)AOD6A)A6CO=) rying) (0.068) (0.068) (0.088) (0.089) (0.090) (0.091) ParentsÕ Educational Attainment (Ref: Below Secondary) Father: secondary 1.011 1.018 1.063 1.063 1.041 1.042 (0.096) (0.097) (0.101) (0.101) (0.108) (0.108) Father: post secondary 1.212 1.216 1.210 1.200 1.344 1.331 pells 13,259 (0.068) (0.068) (0.088)
37 (0.089) (0.090) (0.091) Par
(0.089) (0.090) (0.091) ParentsÕ Educational Attainment (Ref: Below Secondary) Father: secondary 1.011 1.018 1.063 1.063 1.041 1.042 (0.096) (0.097) (0.101) (0.101) (0.108) (0.108) Father: post secondary 1.212 1.216 1.210 1.200 1.344 1.331 0.831 0.832 0.833 0.830 0.835 0.832 (0.111) (0.111) (0.111) (0.111) (0.121) (0.121) Mother: post secondary 0.839 0.829 0.882 0.880 0.875 0.877 (0.161) (0.159) (0.169) (0.169) (0.185) (0.185) Mother: universi
38 ty and higher 0.691 0.686
ty and higher 0.691 0.686 0.771 0.764 0.753 0.751 (0.071) (0.071) (0.067) (0.067) (0.070) (0.070) Presence of Household Enterprise (Ref: No HH Enterprise) HH has farm 0.859* 0.849* 0.920 0.918 0.956 0.949 (0.066) (0.065) (0.074) (0.074) (0.081) (0.080) HH has a non-agric. enterp. 1.061 1.050 1.162* 1.157* 1.024 1.023 (0.064) (0.064) (0.075) (0.075) (0.069) (0.069) Region of Residence (Ref: Greater Cairo) Ratio of local priv. W&S workers 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001
39 1.002 1.002
1.002 1.002 (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) Ratio of local public workers 1.002 1.002 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) Own Educational Attainment (Ref: Technical Secondary 3 yrs.) General secondary ) (0.097) (0.101) (0.101) (0.108) (0.108) Father: post secondary 1.212 1.216 1.210 1.200 1.344 1.331 (0.239) (0.240) (0.240) (0.239) (0.289) (0.288) Father: university and higher 1.367* 1.365* 1.432**
40 1.430** 1.599*** 1.596*** (0.
1.430** 1.599*** 1.596*** (0.176) (0.176) (0.183) (0.183) (0.220) (0.219) Mother: secondary 0.831 0.832 0.833 0.830 0.835 0.832 (0.111) (0.111) (0.111) (0.111) (0.121) (0.121) Mother: post secondary 0.839 0.829 0.882 0.880 0.875 0.877 (0.161) (0.159) (0.169) (0.169) (0.185) (0.185) Mother: university and higher 0.691 0.686 0.771 0.764 0.753 0.751 Ratio of local priv. W&S workers 0.064) (0.064) (0.075) (0.075) (0.069) (0.069) Region of Residence 1.212
41 1.216 1.210 1.200
1.216 1.210 1.200 1.344 1.331 (0.239) (0.240) (0.240) (0.239) (0.289) (0.288) Father: university and higher 1.367* 1.365* 1.432** 1.430** 1.599*** 1.596*** (0.176) (0.176) (0.183) (0.183) (0.220) (0.219) Mother: secondary 0.831 0.832 0.833 0.830 0.835 0.832 (0.111) (0.111) (0.111) (0.111) (0.121) (0.121) Mother: post secondary 0.839 0.829 0.882 0.880 0.875 0.877 (0.161) (0.159) (0.169) (0.169) (0.185) (0.185) Mother: university and higher 0.691
42 0.686 0.771 0.764
0.686 0.771 0.764 0.753 0.751 ) (0.206) (0.204) (0.202) (0.201) FatherÕs Employment (Ref: Government Employee) (0.071) (0.067) (0.067) (0.070) (0.070) Presence of Household Enterprise (Ref: No HH Enterprise) ) (0.126) (0.121) (0.122) (0.102) (0.102) S 0.956 0.939 0.951 0.948 0.891 0.885 (0.082) (0.081) (0.083) (0.083) (0.085) (0.08 ) (0.08 ) HH has farm 0.859* 0.849* 0.920 0.918 0.956 0.949 (0.066) (0.065) (0.074) (0.074) (0.081) (0.080) )
43 (0.075) (0.075) (0.069) (0
(0.075) (0.075) (0.069) (0.06 ) (0.129) Urban Lower Egypt 0.863 0.873 0.870 0.879 0.793 0.800 (0.096) (0.097) (0.097) (0.099) (0.098) (0.099) Urban Upper Egypt 1.008 1.009 0.967 0.971 0.773* 0.776* (0.105) (0.105) (0.102) (0.103) (0.091) (0.092) Rural Lower Egypt 0.951 0.955 0.947 0.951 0.735** 0.740** (0.096) (0.097) (0.096) (0.097) (0.085) (0.086) Rural Upper Egypt 1.191 1.180 1.113 1.115 0.839
44 0.841 (0.127) (
0.841 (0.127) (0.126) (0.121) (0.122) (0.102) (0.10 ) (0.030) Log Gamma Variance 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.004) (0.002) (0.000) (0.001) (0.006) (0.005) Number of Spells :KHQTXDOLW\RIÃUVWMRELVLQFOXGHGLQVWHDGRIW\SHRIÃUVWMREDVLQ0RGHOVDQGZHVHHWKDWWKRVHZLWKSRRUMREVKDYHQHDUO\WKUHHDQG
45 03;DKDOIWLPHVWKH
03;DKDOIWLPHVWKHKD]DUGDQGWKRVHZLWKIDLUMREVQHDUO\WZLFHWKHKD]DUGRIPRYLQJRQWRDVHFRQGMREFRPSDUHGWRWKRVHZKRVWDUWRXWZLWKDJRRGMRE7KHVHHVWLPDWHVDUHUREXVWWRWKHLQFOXVLRQRIWLPHWRÃUVWMREDQGLWVVTXDUHDV6;;9EDV9B6A)DV=@7=@::=:G))+F8:)9E)6)EF6E)EF@=@)9:) HJ9B7)6J@=6
46 7@Q@=90;$@H6A@:)MaS)@=90;HJ9B7)6J@
7@Q@=90;$@H6A@:)MaS)@=90;HJ9B7)6J@=67@QN5&%(.I(O1%$DC5/1&-(!E5(@=90;!$(1%#$(C&%%1&E5(1-(N5&%#]R[e 67@):F9?E9B7)CI)6E)H:E)B@)I@6=)?=H)Oe)E)OfG))2I)EF@)]RfRS[])C9=EF)DF=EN)EF@)H@;96B)F6;)=@6DF@;)6C8E)O`G))'@J@BEI)@=D@BE) -5 ;?)EF6E)D -5 ;F -5 ;=E)F6;)B -5 ;E)I@E)H6==9@;)CI)67@)OeN)6B;)^P)@=D@BE)F6;)B -5 ;E)H6==9@;)CI)67@)^PG))+F@)=@J@=:6A)9B)EF@);@A6I)9B)67@)6E)H6==967@)9:)=@6;9AI)66=@BE)? -5 ;=)EF@)]R[eS[[)C9=EF)D -5 ;F -5 ;=E)D -5 ;H6=@;)E -5 ;)EF@)]RfRS[])D -5 ;F -5 ;=EG))3AEF -5 ;87F)J@=I)@6=AI)H6==967@:)MC@? -5 ;=@)67@)O^Q)K@=@)@g86AAI)=6=@)? -5 ;=)EF@:@)EK -5
47 ;)D -5 ;F -5 ;=E:)MA@::)WKDQ
;)D -5 ;F -5 ;=E:)MA@::)WKDQSHUFHQWWKHPHGLDQDJHDWÃUVWPDUULDJHGURSVV?=H)O`)VE)OfN)=97FE)C6DL)VE)KF@=@)9E)K6:)V?=)EF@)]RfPS *F=E)]R[]S]R[e*F=E)]R[fS]R`P*F=E)]R`]S]R`e*F=E)]R`fn** provided that individuals are not censored and that migration started before year of marriage ?):9:E@=:)E)H6==I)A6E@=G))+F@)H@6B)B8HC@=)?):9:E@=:)?=)H@B)9B)EF@):6H)9:) @ -; 0;EKG))+F@)9B;9J9;86A:)9B) @ -; 0;8=):6H)?6AA) @ 2; 00;9BE)
48 @ 2; 00;B@) @ 2; 00;?) @ 2
@ 2; 00;B@) @ 2; 00;?) @ 2; 00;?8=)C9=EF) @ 2; 00; @ 2; 00;DF=E:N)B6H@AI)]RffS[PN)KF9DF)9:)EF@)=@?@=@BD@) @ 2; 00; @ 2; 00;DF=EN)]R[]S[eN)]R[fS`PN)]R`]S`eN)6B;)]R`fnG))'9BD@)EF@)A6:E) @ 2; 00; @ 2; 00;DF=E) @ 2; 00;BAI)9BDA8;@:)9B;9J9;86A:)]`) @ 2; 00;E)OP)9B)OPPfN)9E)9:)H8DF):H6AA@=)EF6B)EF@)=@J9;)EF=@@G))!@)8:@)EF@):6H@)=@J9;D6E@7=9@:)=@J9;?=)=@J9;KB)@;8D6=@J9;E9BN))=@B; ;-12 ;@;8D6E9B)6B;)?6EF@=Y:)ê@H)EF6E)êêêK@)8:@;)9B)EF@)E=6B:9E9B)E)@H)!@)êêDBE=A)ê?=)êêDB;9E9B:)9B)6B)9B;9J9;86AY:)K9;@=)êDHH8B9EI)EF6E)D6B)6??@DE)EF@)E9H9B7)ê?)H6==967@)CI)9BDA8;9B7)
49 EF@):@V)ê=6E9)9B)EF@);9:E=9DE)ê?)=@:
EF@):@V)ê=6E9)9B)EF@);9:E=9DE)ê?)=@:9;@BD@)6:)=000;)CI)EF@)]RRf)=000;è©®é/)*@B:8:G))2@D68:@)EF@=@)9:)6B)6J@=67@)67@)76) -29; 00;?)fS[)I@6=:)C@EK@@B) SUREDELOLW\RIÃUVWPDUULDJHIRUUHIHUHQFHLQGLYLGXDOVLQ;9??@=@BE)DQFQ=E:)6=@):FQKB)9B)$978=@)f6)6B;)fCG))+F@)F6\6=;)?8BDE9QB)=@J@6A:)6)BQBSHQBQEQB9D)=@A6E9QB:F9)ZLWKDJHZLWKWKHKD]DUGRIÃUVWPDUULDJHLQFUHDVLQJK9EF)67@)8BE9A)6CJ8E)67@)^P)6B;)EF@B)=@H69B9B7)=J87FAI)JDB:E6BE)J
50 ?=)J6BEF@=);@D6;@G]O)+F@)=@J@=:6
?=)J6BEF@=);@D6;@G]O)+F@)=@J@=:6A)9B)EF@);@A6I)LQWKHDJHDWÃUVWPDUULDJHLVUHDGLO\DSSDUHQWLQWKHH8AE9J6=96E@)=@:8AE:G))$H=)EF@)DHFH=E:)8B;@=)DHB:9;@=6E9HBN)B6H@AI)@ 10 ;A@)C 10 ;=B)C@EK@@B)]Rff)6B;)]R``N)EF@)F6\6=;)RIPDUU\LQJKDVLQFUHDVHGVLJQLÃFDQWO\IRUHYHU\FRKRUW:E6=E9B7)K9EF)EF@)]R[]S[e)DWFW=EN)H@6B9B7)EF6E)EF@)67@)6E)ÃUVWPDUULDJHKDVGHFOLQHGVWHDGLO\IRUFRKRUWVERUQDIWHU]R[PN)EF@):6H@)6EE@=
51 B):@@B)9B)$978=@)eG))26:@; 10 ;)B)EF@
B):@@B)9B)$978=@)eG))26:@; 10 ;)B)EF@:@)=@:8AE:N)EF@)H@;96B)67@) 10 ;?)H6==967@)? 10 ;=)EF@)=@?@=@BD@)9B;9J9;86A)F6:)7 10 ;B@)?= 10 ;H)^])? 10 ;=)EF@)]RffS[P)C9=EF)D 10 ;F 10 ;=E)E 10 ;)O[)? 10 ;=)EF@)]R`]S`e)D 10 ;F 10 ;=EN)L@@9B7)6AA)@A:@)D 10 ;B:E6BEG)+F9:)9:)6) 10 ;:H@KF6E):8=)=@:8AE)79J@B)EF@))FRQFHUQVDERXWWKHLQFUHDVHGGLIÃFXOW\RIPDUU\LQJDQGEF@)î¤)EF6E)%7I) -18; 000;:D9@EI)9:) -18; 000;79B7) -18; 000;EF=87F)6)H6==967@)D=9:9:G))3::66;)6B;),6H6;6B)MOPP`Q)6=78@)EF6E)EF@);@DA9B@)9B)EF@)67@)6E)H6==967@)6?E@=)EF@)]R[P)C9=EF) -18;&
52 #x 000; -18; 000;DF=E)D6B)C@)6E
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53 =)H6=L@E)=@DA;9B; -2; 00
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