Forecasting Quantitative prediction of outcomes based on conceptual or mathematical models Stationarity Simplified analytical or complex system models Analogs paleo historical geographical ID: 1009993
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1. Approaches to anticipate futuresForecasting: Quantitative prediction of outcomes based on conceptual or mathematical modelsStationaritySimplified (analytical or complex) system modelsAnalogs (paleo, historical, geographical)Numerical system models (climate models, earth system models)Foresight: Systematic, mostly qualitative exploration of full range of plausible future outcomesScenarios and foresight – expert assessments (narratives, refined analyses such as consistency/plausibility or geospatial analysis)1
2. 2AMSABrigham
3. Steps in scenario identificationCo-develop defining questionSummarize current knowledge & trends Identify important drivers (factors, forces)Identify key uncertainties (from key drivers) Develop scenarios as plausible futures for bundles of key drivers & uncertaintiesIdentify indicator variablesIntegrate scenarios into planning process by tracking indicators & developing strategies cognizant of scenarios312344132
4. Plausibility & ConsistencyRobustness RoProjection bundles with high plausibility and consistency values and no/few partial inconsistencies4
5. Further in-depth analysis of projection bundles5Mueller-Stoffels et al., 2010
6. NSSI Scenarios ProjectProject initiative by North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI)Funded by broad partnership and administered through BLM to develop Energy and Resource Development ScenariosScenarios process to help NSSI member agencies and their partners refine research and monitoring investmentsWhat is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?
7. Drivers of changeEconomic and regulatoryPrice of oil and gas productsDemand for energy/ mineral resourcesRegulatory environmentDevelopment of infrastructure (onshore/ coastal)Price of other commodities (coal, minerals)Oil/ gas production tax codeOil and gas development outside AlaskaTechnology and informationNew technology (efficiency, discovery, clean-up)Demographics, Politics and EducationGlobal political stabilityNatural systemsExtent of seasonal sea iceClimate change (temperature, precipitation)Erosion (coastal/ riverine)Permafrost degradationEndangered species listings & critical habitat designationsHuman-caused environmental disasters (e.g. oil spills)Community dynamicsCommunity stance on developmentLocal (village/borough) economyCommunity health and food security
8. Fact sheets on key driversExpert-reviewedSynthesizes knowledge on trends and uncertaintiesHelps inform workshop discussions
9. Decision-making in a changing Arctic9ObservationsGCM outputStroeve et al., 2010Eicken & Lovecraft, Ch. 9, Nx2020, 2011
10. ?????Present
11. Scenarios: Challenges and OpportunitiesImportance of partnerships to support processStakeholder buy-in importantCommitment to follow-through with scenario outcomes Opportunities to share information and expertise among stakeholdersOngoing outreachUnderstand scenarios use and limitationsRationale for prioritizing drivers and uncertaintiesProvide products that can be shared with stakeholdersScenarios without a specific “end-point” – revisit process and reassess priorities 11
12. Questions & DiscussionSEARCH Arctic Futures 2050 12