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GDC Canada - PowerPoint Presentation

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GDC Canada - PPT Presentation

May 2009 Joint work with Richard Garfield and Skaff Elias K Robert Gutschera Senior Game Designer The Amazing Society krgamazingsocietycom Luck Skill and Hidden Information Lessons from the World of Paper Games ID: 448303

skill luck chain chess luck skill chess chain information players hidden games game win private die wins60 people amp

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GDC Canada

May 2009

Joint work with Richard Garfield and Skaff Elias

K. Robert GutscheraSenior Game DesignerThe Amazing Societykrg@amazingsociety.com

Luck, Skill, and Hidden Information

Lessons from the World of Paper GamesSlide3

OutlineWhat is Luck?Luck vs. SkillSources of Luck

Pros & Cons of LuckHidden InformationSlide4

Defining LuckFor our purposes, luck (or r

andomness) in a game is uncertainty in outcome.So all games have some luck.Not necessarily coming from dice, cards, random number generators, etc.Slide5

Even Chess Has LuckOutcome of a chess game is uncertain.Elo measures it.E.g. if my rating is 1800 and yours is 1870, you have a ~60% chance to win.Slide6

Randomly Beating KasparovFor an extreme case, consider trying to beat Kasparov by playing randomly.Chance to win: 1 in 30^50.Win NY lottery 7 times:1 in (60^6)^7, about the same.

A very small chance − chess has less luck than other games.Slide7

Example: Die-Rolling ChessTwo players compete by rolling 1 die. 1-2: first player wins 3-4:

second player wins5-6: play chessAll the skill of chess, but a lot more luck.Slide8

Luck vs. Skill

low skillhigh skill

low lucktic-tac-toe

chesshigh luckslots

poker

Luck and skill aren’t opposites; they’re orthogonal.Slide9

And Yet…Surely there’s some relationship between luck and skill.What is it?Slide10

The Skill ChainConsider a chain of players, each beating the next 60% of the time:

What does the length of this chain measure?

wins60% vs.

wins60% vs.wins

60% vs.

wins

60% vs.

A

C

BSlide11

The Skill Chain, IIThis is just Elo!For chess, the length is about 30.But for die-rolling chess, it’s about 10 (harder to win 60% of the time!)

Adding luck compresses the skill chain!Slide12

Connecting Skill and Luck Chain seems to measure skill(more skill => longer chain)But in fact measures returns to skill.

And so, very roughly:Returns to Skill = Skill – LuckSlide13

Sources of LuckExplicit randomizers (cards, dice, RNGs)Simultaneous choices (e.g. RPS)Human ignoranceCombinatorial (e.g. chess)

Deliberate secrets (e.g. xword puzzles)Slide14

Luck: the GoodIncreased range of competitionSomething to blame losses on

Increased variety of gameplayCatchup mechanismAdds

psychological interestSlide15

Luck: the BadLuck can be confusing.People are bad at probabilityRandomness can conceal feedback needed to learn a game’s strategyPeople like to feel they are masters of their own fate.

Historically, though, people tend to prefer games with more luck.Slide16

Luck: the UglyExperienced players may dislike luck because they think they’ll win more if the game has less.This is both true and false.Designers are experienced, thus prone to this trap.Sometimes you should listen – but sometimes you shouldn’t.Slide17

Hidden InformationThings players don’t know:Private info – One knows, others don’t.Special case: No players know, i.e. uncertainty, i.e. luck!Slide18

Luck & Hidden InformationAny source of luck is a source of HI (the “special case”).Some kind of luck is needed to generate hidden information.

Sometimes private information generates luck (e.g. RPS).So the pros & cons of hidden information are very similar to those of luck.Slide19

Luck: One More GoodLuck, especially private info, can control calculation by decreasing the rewards to calculation.

Examples:die rolls in minis vs. chessrandom damage in an RTSdummy in bridge (reverse e.g.)secret victory points in German board gamesSlide20

Luck Players Will AcceptSimultaneous choices, private info tend to be accepted over explicit randomizers.“Pre-plan luck” over “post-plan luck”.Entrenched audiences are tough.New platforms are an opportunity.Slide21

ConclusionMore luck doesn’t mean less skill!Adding luck to a game can be a good thing.How you add it, and who your audience is, can make all the difference.

Questions?krg@amazingsociety.com