May 2009 Joint work with Richard Garfield and Skaff Elias K Robert Gutschera Senior Game Designer The Amazing Society krgamazingsocietycom Luck Skill and Hidden Information Lessons from the World of Paper Games ID: 448303
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GDC Canada
May 2009
Joint work with Richard Garfield and Skaff Elias
K. Robert GutscheraSenior Game DesignerThe Amazing Societykrg@amazingsociety.com
Luck, Skill, and Hidden Information
Lessons from the World of Paper GamesSlide3
OutlineWhat is Luck?Luck vs. SkillSources of Luck
Pros & Cons of LuckHidden InformationSlide4
Defining LuckFor our purposes, luck (or r
andomness) in a game is uncertainty in outcome.So all games have some luck.Not necessarily coming from dice, cards, random number generators, etc.Slide5
Even Chess Has LuckOutcome of a chess game is uncertain.Elo measures it.E.g. if my rating is 1800 and yours is 1870, you have a ~60% chance to win.Slide6
Randomly Beating KasparovFor an extreme case, consider trying to beat Kasparov by playing randomly.Chance to win: 1 in 30^50.Win NY lottery 7 times:1 in (60^6)^7, about the same.
A very small chance − chess has less luck than other games.Slide7
Example: Die-Rolling ChessTwo players compete by rolling 1 die. 1-2: first player wins 3-4:
second player wins5-6: play chessAll the skill of chess, but a lot more luck.Slide8
Luck vs. Skill
low skillhigh skill
low lucktic-tac-toe
chesshigh luckslots
poker
Luck and skill aren’t opposites; they’re orthogonal.Slide9
And Yet…Surely there’s some relationship between luck and skill.What is it?Slide10
The Skill ChainConsider a chain of players, each beating the next 60% of the time:
What does the length of this chain measure?
wins60% vs.
wins60% vs.wins
60% vs.
wins
60% vs.
A
C
BSlide11
The Skill Chain, IIThis is just Elo!For chess, the length is about 30.But for die-rolling chess, it’s about 10 (harder to win 60% of the time!)
Adding luck compresses the skill chain!Slide12
Connecting Skill and Luck Chain seems to measure skill(more skill => longer chain)But in fact measures returns to skill.
And so, very roughly:Returns to Skill = Skill – LuckSlide13
Sources of LuckExplicit randomizers (cards, dice, RNGs)Simultaneous choices (e.g. RPS)Human ignoranceCombinatorial (e.g. chess)
Deliberate secrets (e.g. xword puzzles)Slide14
Luck: the GoodIncreased range of competitionSomething to blame losses on
Increased variety of gameplayCatchup mechanismAdds
psychological interestSlide15
Luck: the BadLuck can be confusing.People are bad at probabilityRandomness can conceal feedback needed to learn a game’s strategyPeople like to feel they are masters of their own fate.
Historically, though, people tend to prefer games with more luck.Slide16
Luck: the UglyExperienced players may dislike luck because they think they’ll win more if the game has less.This is both true and false.Designers are experienced, thus prone to this trap.Sometimes you should listen – but sometimes you shouldn’t.Slide17
Hidden InformationThings players don’t know:Private info – One knows, others don’t.Special case: No players know, i.e. uncertainty, i.e. luck!Slide18
Luck & Hidden InformationAny source of luck is a source of HI (the “special case”).Some kind of luck is needed to generate hidden information.
Sometimes private information generates luck (e.g. RPS).So the pros & cons of hidden information are very similar to those of luck.Slide19
Luck: One More GoodLuck, especially private info, can control calculation by decreasing the rewards to calculation.
Examples:die rolls in minis vs. chessrandom damage in an RTSdummy in bridge (reverse e.g.)secret victory points in German board gamesSlide20
Luck Players Will AcceptSimultaneous choices, private info tend to be accepted over explicit randomizers.“Pre-plan luck” over “post-plan luck”.Entrenched audiences are tough.New platforms are an opportunity.Slide21
ConclusionMore luck doesn’t mean less skill!Adding luck to a game can be a good thing.How you add it, and who your audience is, can make all the difference.
Questions?krg@amazingsociety.com