It Can’t Happen Now - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

It Can’t Happen Now

Fallacious complacence about Planetary DefenseSlide2

“

This is not an issue that we should worry about in the near term.”

–

NASA

Administrator Charles Bolden,

testifying to Congress about the threat of catastrophic impact by an asteroid or a comet

(

House

Science

Committee, March 19,

2013,

“

Threats

from space: a review of U.S. government efforts to track and mitigate asteroids and

meteors,”

hearing video,

minute

104:50,

http://science.house.gov/hearing/full-committee-hearing-threats-space-meteors-and-comets-part-1

)Slide3

Why Planetary Defense?

D/1770 L1 / Comet

Lexell

– Charles Messier

(6 LD on July

1, 1770)

Tunguska event, Siberia (June 30, 1908)

Barringer

Crater, Arizona (Eugene Shoemaker, 1960

)

Apollo and Mariner missions (1960s-1970s)

KT Boundary – Gubbio, iridium (Walter and Luis Alvarez, 1980)

Chicxulub Crater, Yucatan (Alan Hildebrand, 1991)

D/1993

F2 / Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 (July, 1994)

Chelyabinsk bolide

and

367943

Duende

/2012

DA14

(February 15, 2013)

C/2013 A1 / Comet

Siding

Spring

(1/3 LD from Mars

on Oct. 19,

2014)Slide4

-- Alan

Harris, “NEA populations and impact frequency,” NASA Asteroid Grand Challenge Seminar Series, March 28, 2014, http://sservi.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Harris.pdf

Don’t Panic? The Power

Law for NEOsSlide5

The Power LawSlide6

Panic! The Fallacies

or

What’s a philosopher doing talking about planetary defense?Slide7

Argument from ignorance

(claiming to know -x based on not knowing x)

“We

know everything out there that is that big, and there is just nothing right now that's in an orbit that's any threat toward the

Earth.”

-- Lindley Johnson,

Near-Earth Object Program Executive at NASA, as quoted

in Mike Wall 2012, “End

may be nigh for asteroid disaster

movies,”

Space.com

,

June 21

,

http

://

www.space.com/16251-asteroid-impact-disaster-movie-facts.htmlSlide8

The clockwork fallacy

(interpreting averages as regular occurrences or as predictions)

“We

thought that humanity would not have to face such an attack for another couple of thousand years, but the opposite happened and Russia was hit with a large-scale natural emergency

.”

--

Russian Emergency Minister Vladimir Puchkov regarding the lack of preparedness for what took place in Chelyabinsk

(RT News 2013)Slide9

The p

rocrastination

f

allacy

(T

he small likelihood of a harm makes it OK to put off dealing with it now)

reductio ad absurdum

Suppose it were true that the vanishingly small probability of annihilation by

an impactor in

the near future made it irrational to strive to make adequate preparations to prevent it (since there will always be more pressing priorities).

Then there would never be a good reason to make adequate preparations to prevent annihilation

by an impactor (until one were detected, but that would likely be too late).

But there is certainly a good reason to make adequate preparations to prevent annihilation by

an impactor (since

it will occur someday unless we prevent it). 

Ergo:

It

is not true that the vanishingly small probability of annihilation by

an impactor in

the near future makes it irrational to strive to make adequate preparations to prevent it

.Slide10

The l

ow-hanging

fruit fallacy

(dealing with the relatively easy stuff means you can ignore the relatively difficult stuff)

Planetary Defense pertains to both asteroids and comets, but defense against the former has completely eclipsed the latter, as attested by the following:

name of

Congressional

hearings on planetary

defense

: “

Threats

from Space: A Review of Efforts to Track and Mitigate Asteroids and

Meteors”

name

of

UN planetary defense initiative:

“International

Asteroid Warning

Network”

name

of

White

House/NASA planetary

defense

Grand Challenge: “Asteroid Initiative”

logo slogan of

B612, the premier NGO

for

planetary

defense

: “Defending

Earth Against

Asteroids”

l

ogo slogan of the biennial planetary

defense

conference: “

Protecting

Earth from

Asteroids”

n

ame of the new annual planetary

defense

awareness day: “Asteroid Day”Slide11

Equivocation

(trading on the ambiguity of a term)

Treating

risk

as if it were just probability

“The risk of a catastrophic impact is very low.”

vs.

Risk = probability x magnitude of the feared outcome

“Impactors pose a big risk (even though

the likelihood of one hitting us

is low).”

“Although

the annual probability of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid or comet is extremely small, the consequences of such a collision are so catastrophic that it is prudent to assess the nature of the threat and to prepare to deal with it

.”

-- David Morrison (ed

.) 1992,

The Spaceguard survey: report of the NASA International near-Earth-object detection workshop

, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology.Slide12

Contradiction

“Unless

a large flotilla (100 or more) of massive spacecraft was sent as impactors, nuclear explosions are the only current, practical means for changing the orbit of large NEOs (diameters greater than about 1 km). They also remain as a backup strategy for somewhat smaller objects if other methods have failed. They may be the only method for dealing with smaller objects when warning time is short

….”

--

National Research Council 2010,

Defending planet Earth: near-Earth object surveys and hazard mitigation strategies

, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C

.

,

http://

www.nap.edu/catalog/12842.html

“No

sensible argument has been put forward for using nuclear weapons to solve any of the major 21st century problems we face

….”

--

Global Zero Commission 2012,

Modernizing U.S. nuclear strategy, force structure and posture

,

http

://

dl.dropbox.com/u/6395109/GZ%20US%20Nuclear%20Policy%20Commission%20Report.pdf;

co-signed by former U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel just before he became Secretary of

Defence.Slide13

Improper transposition

(mistaking a necessary condition for a sufficient

condition)

“[

Planetary

scientist Donald

] Yeomans … insists

that the three most important things to do are

‘find

’

em

early, find ’

em

early, and find ’

em

early’.”

-- Andrew Lawler, “What

To Do Before the Asteroid

Strikes,”

Discover

magazine, November 2007, http://discovermagazine.com/2007/nov/the-asteroidSlide14

False dichotomy

“…

most people continue to drive their automobiles regardless [of there being

“31

million accidents … per year, at an annual cost of almost $100

billion”].

For the same reason, that we can't live our lives paralyzed by the fear that something bad may happen, we shouldn't let the remote possibility of being struck by a meteor or asteroid rule our lives.”

--

NASA

1998,

“Is

Earth in danger of being hit by an asteroid

?”

Ask an Astrophysicist

blog

,

http://

teacherlink.ed.usu.edu/tlnasa/reference/imaginedvd/files/imagine/docs/ask_astro/answers/danger.htmlSlide15

Conclusion and

recommendation:

A principle of planetary defense

Act

on the assumption that the next

large

object targeting Earth will be discovered the day after we have prepared an adequate defense against it were we to begin to prepare

in all earnestness today.

This

further

implies:

A

deflection

infrastructure must be in place

prior to

detection of a threatening object.

The scope of

detection

efforts must be expanded beyond near-Earth ever further into the outer solar system and maintained indefinitely.

Any

less robust planetary

defense

policy strikes me as irrational and potentially fatal to the human race

.Slide16

Joel Marks

Professor Emeritus of Philosophy

University of New Haven

jmarks@newhaven.edu