Summer 2004THE SOCIAL C - PDF document

Summer 2004THE SOCIAL C 311______________________________________John F. Rohe is an attorney practicing in Petoskey,Michigan Risk: A PracticalGuide forDeciding What’sReally Safe andWhat’s Really Dangerous inthe World Around Youby David Ropeikand George GrayNew York: Houghton Miflin485 pages, $16.00 The Innumerate’sHysteria du JourBook Review by John F. RoheW are salient risks for the obese smokerdriving while impaired suffering from anxiety news reports on West Nile virus? Or for caring parent storing a loaded rifle in an unlockedcase who writes the school board demanding seat beltson school buses?Answer: The risk of harm by West Nile virus isdwarfed by obesity, smoking, and impaired driving. Seat on school buses, unless designed for the s and weight of the occupant, create a greater risk ofharm than no seatbelts at all.Authors David Ropeik andGeorge Gray, thrugh the HarvardCenter for Risk Analysis, describetwo components of risk: Likelihoodof harm and the anticipatedconsequences. Both comp be considered in assessing anyrisk. Coffee, for example, offers astrong likelihood of affecting the but the cons as insomnia, are not to befeared when studying for an exam.Innumeracy is the mathematical equivalent ofilliteracy. Its symptoms include the inability to assessrisks with clarity. Casino gambling, it is said, is just a formof discrimination against people with poor math skills. in math class exacts a hefty toll beyond the odds at a slot machine. Persons unable to assess are more likely to o the supreme sacrifice for lives can be seen as one continuous algorithm– a series of encounters with risks of variable liand consequence. Most risks are assumed withouthesitation. We cross the street to visit a friend obliviousto the risk. Other risks, like the West Nile virus disease,breed anxiety even while presenting a much lower threat.The newsworthiness of harm becomes a morerelevant threat for the innumerate. When a commercialjetliner tumbles from the sky, the pictures are captivating.The graphic art of journalism enjoys prosperity throughvoyeurism. Yet, the lifetime risk of death by motorvehicle is 443 times greater than a fatality by jetlinerdisaster. risks are worth fretting about. Others sellWe bring a limited lifetime supply emotional capital to the task ofparenting. How one elects to allocatethis lifetime reserve is a function ofhow risks are assessed.Risks of high likelihood andseverity are no secret, like smoking oralcohol abuse, particularly while But these risks lack thepoignancy of a jetliner crash. Theirvictims are generally notmemoria in color photographs the news headlines. Rather, are muted in the obituary column. In a perv of fate, victims of innumeracy can even be drivento such high risk activities as smoking or drinking, brought by dramatic news reports of such low risk drama asjetliner crashes.Mortimer Adler once identified the most importantquestion in life as: “How shall we live?” The answer tothis question depends on how we assess relevant risks. It the practical application of math skills to dailylife. The risks in this study by Ropeik and Gray incl example: firearms, genetically modified food, motorvehicles, indoor air pollution, outdoor air pollution,al weapons, carbon monoxide, DDT, dieselemissions, environmental hormones, hazardous wa lead, mercury, nuclear power, ozone pesticides, radiation, cancer heart disease, Summer 2004THE SOCIAL C 312HIV, medical errors, and vaccines. However, a leading risk eludes the authors of this485-page book. They examine separate risks in detail. Thus, diesel emission risks becomed from the risk of wind-born particulates. Thlikelihood and consequences of both smog and air toxins found to be in the “low” risk rating. The process ofseparating greenhouse gas risks from other industrialhazards might be of academic interest at Hver, in isolation, each risk obscures the moreprevalent risk confronting the reader, namely: theconstant increase in the sheer numbers of people.By slicing and dicing each separate risk, the authorsdivert attention from that more pressing risk. Theaudience of this book is not offered information on thecumulative risk of population pressures. Most risks in thisbook are driven by a “multiplier,” namely, the number of There is little risk of deadly smog for the isolated living on the frontier. Population pressures accountfor pollution, toxins, chemicals, ozone depletion, etc., etc.Sadly, this book offers no insight on the big picture.By fixing on each finite, compartmentalized risk, the bookoffers a level of precision for the meticulous risk shopper;to inhale tailpipe carbon monoxide emissions or to breathesulphuric vapor. When risk analysis on each threatbecomes an exact s innumeracy is perpetuated, resolved. The cumulative threats of the multiplier arenot mentioned or analyzed.Readers are offered no guidance on how todetermine an optimum population in mini risks now and in the future. The informed,numerate, risk assessor would want to enter cumu to their calculations. The risk of becoming anuncaring ancestor resides beyond the scope of numeracyin this book. The public policy implications of cumulative risks inthe big picture tend to dwarf fragmented risks. Furtherinformation on the big picture risk is needed for aninformed electorate in our continuing experiment of self- This calculus, regretfully, is not to be found