Anthony Rogers Thomas Rosol amp Dylan Seymour Agenda Overview Business Analysis Economic Analysis Financial Analysis Valuation Analysis Recommendation Healthcare Industry Rogers Rosol amp Seymour ID: 1029703
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1. SECTOR PRESENTATION - HEALTHCAREAnthony Rogers, Thomas Rosol & Dylan Seymour
2. AgendaOverviewBusiness AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFinancial AnalysisValuation AnalysisRecommendationHealthcare IndustryRogers, Rosol & Seymour
3. Healthcare IndustryRogers, Rosol & SeymourSource: Bloomberg; FidelityHealthcare is a $4.76T Sector
4. IndustriesHealthcare IndustryRogers, Rosol & SeymourSource: Fidelity
5. CompaniesHealthcare IndustryRogers, Rosol & SeymourSource: Nasdaq
6. Business AnalysisSource: FidelityOverweight Healthcare?The market appears to be heading to the phases of the life cycle where healthcare really shines.
7. Business AnalysisSource: Fidelity
8. Business AnalysisSource: http://aimmarketinsights.com/
9. Business AnalysisCatalystsRisksDemographics (aging population)ACA (more people insured)Higher drug prices M&A may combine synergiesACA (higher premiums)Government intervention (Decr. Prices)Expiring patients (more generics High R&D costs for drugsLoss of coverage for pre-existing conditionsSource: US Census
10. Source: BloombergEconomic Analysis:Health Index & CPI – 5 yrs
11. Economic Analysis:Health Index & UM Confidence– 5 yrsSource: Bloomberg
12. Source: BloombergEconomic Analysis:Health Index vs. $/£ – 5 yrs
13. Source: BloombergFinancial Analysis:
14. Source: BloombergFinancial Analysis:
15. Source: BloombergFinancial Analysis:
16. Source: BloombergFinancial Analysis:
17. Valuation Analysis:Source: Fidelity
18. Valuation Analysis:Healthcare IndustryRogers, Rosol & SeymourSource: Bloomberg
19. Source: BloombergValuation Analysis:Health Index & SPX Index – 5 yrs
20. Valuation AnalysisHealthcare IndustryRogers, Rosol & SeymourSource: Fidelity
21. Source: BloombergValuation Analysis:
22. Source: BloombergValuation Analysis:
23. Valuation Analysis:Source: barchart.comBollinger BandsLines plotted at an interval around a moving average with two standard deviations. Used to determine overbought and oversold zones, to confirm divergences between prices and indicators, and to project price targets.Wider bands = greater volatility.
24. Valuation Analysis:Source: barchart.comTrend SpotterComputerized trend analysis system that uses wave theory, market momentum and volatility to find a general trend for a specific market.Attempts to cut losers early and let winners run.When there is a single dot above the price, this is a resistance point and represents a bearish trend.When there is a dot below the price, this is a support point and represents a bullish trend.When there are 2 dots, one above and one below the price, this represents a neutral or hold trend
25. RecommendationHealthcare IndustryRogers, Rosol & SeymourSIM Portfolio is currently weighted evenly with S&P at about 14.65% of the total portfolioWe recommend OVERWEIGHTING Healthcare slightly at closer to 15% of the portfolioPotential: Aging population and Affordable Care Act (more covered by healthcare)Risks: Affordable Care Act (Loss of Coverage, Preexisting Conditions, Unaffordable)Industries:OVERWEIGHT – Healthcare Providers and Services (aging population is driving the amount of service demanded upward quickly)UNDERWEIGHT – Healthcare Equipment and Supplies (recent struggles earning positive returns)