logistical problems inhibit discoveries Initially technoeconomic eventually geological These quickly end exponential growth Discovery rate p e a k s is FLAT then ID: 632996
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Discovery rate & burn rate
“logistical problems” inhibit discoveriesInitially techno/economiceventually geologicalThese quickly end exponential growth!Discovery rate peaks, is FLAT, then declinesPeak signals urgent need to find new supply/fuelPredicts future extraction peak (Hubbert peak)Extraction peak signals imminent crisisSlide2
Energy System Transitions
Coal & oil persistNG lags, but less so now with “tight” gas
1977
Decarbonizing
trendSlide3
Overshoot
Ecology concept: carrying capacity (CC) = sustainable population of regionBelow CC : pop. can increase sustainablyExceed CC : eventually pop. (& CC) decreasesFraction of CC : ecological footprint (how many “Earths” needed to support humanity at our level? www.ecologicalfootprint.com CC can increase if exploit new resourcesWood → coal → oil → uranium, world pop. in 1650 (0.6 billion) → 1900 (1.6 b) → 2010 (6.9 b)But waste from new resources can reduce CCSlide4
Outcome depends entirely on the specific
dynamics of growth Patterns are …Slide5
Attaining / Overshooting CC
Growth has momentum, sails past limitsWhich outcome depends on strength & timing of feedbacks that counter growthWhat feedbacks would stop growth?Initial concerns were of chemical pollutants“Star trek”
PlanetarySlide6
Discovering chemical pollutants
LA smog from automobiles 1943catalytic converter 1975London UK smog from coal heating Dec 1952, killed 12,000 peopleSilent Spring (R. Carson) 1962 DDT over-used, banned 1972Santa Barbara, CA oil spill 1969Global climate change mid-1970sLove Canal, Buffalo NY 1978Ozone hole 1985CFC phase-out started 1987, stalledChernobyl (& Three-mile Island) nuke accidents 1986 (79)Global warming & CO2 (W. McKibben 1989)Slide7
Oil -- Late 1950’s
Govt studies : review oil suppliesUS oil diminished to win World War 2USSR (Siberia): significant oil, mostly untappedOther countries will industrialize like USGM & Ford pushed internal combustion engine, bought & dismantled electric trolley systems to force cities to busesResources for the Future (Rockefeller Found.) infinite atomic power = infinite economic powerHarrison Brown: will deliver unlimited resourcesRapid expansion of nuclear power 1965-1973Handled electricity but not US transportationSlide8
1960s
Hardin: Tragedy of the CommonsEhrlichs: The Population BombPimentel & Odum: quantified energy inputs in agriculture, Green Revolution is unsustainable 1970: US oil extraction peaked/declined1971 industry advisors recommended either no environmental restrictions or importsFacing hostile nation from Vietnam @ re-election, Nixon (Kissinger) chose the easier routeNow 40 yrs later and $4.6+1 trillion poorerSlide9
Late 1960s
Club of Rome Businessmen: how does pop. growth modify CC via pollution & resource exhaustion?Topics ignored by economistsWhat impact on food, environment?Solicited MIT computer study 1970-2To stimulate discussion: Limits of Growth 1972 Backlash from “growth community” bankers/economists“Oil shocks” shortly thereafter lent apparent supportPres. Carter warned of exp. Growth & ME control of USLost re-election to Pres. Reagan even after “Carter Doctrine”Most assumed LoG was invalidated after ME supply was restored (big US oil imports & ME militarization including Israeli nuclear weapons)Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.
State of Union address Jan 1980Slide10
Feedback loops
Start of Systems DynamicsModel exponential & linear interactionsRediscovered overshoot dynamics evident in animal populationsSlide11
Obviously,
highly simplified!Slide12
Evolving studies of Limits of Growth
Note: LoG has been completely dismissed by mainstream (1980 Ehrlich/Simon commodities price bet)World3-03 (1991, 2003)no distinction between different energy forms or regions -> worldwide collapse evident by ~2030New World (2009)… let’s run it!distinguishes renewable / depleting energy forms -> transition to new forms only as old are overwhelmed by constraints (oil soon, NR+coal much later)