Presented at - PowerPoint Presentation

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Presented at African Growth Forum Organised by The International Growth Centre Addis Ababa, EthiopiaSheka Bangura, PhDDirector of PlanningMinistry of Finance and Economic Development1st July, 2015

Socioeconomic Implications of the Ebola Epidemic in Sierra Leone

Discussion of Impact, Lessons & Recovery Challenges Slide2

Outline of PresentationBackgroundThe Economy before EbolaSocio-economic impact of the outbreakCrucial Questions Going ForwardLessons and Opportunities from EbolaThe Ebola Recovery StrategyThe Most Immediate PrioritiesBuilding

National Systems for Resilience & Sustainable

Dev

tSlide3

Background In May 2014, Sierra Leone was struck by the Ebola Virus Disease, killing more than 3500 people out of more than 8500 infected persons. The effects of the epidemic were exacerbated by a simultaneous shock in the mining sector—the two iron ore mining companies driving the economy in the last couple of years faced financial distress and suspended operations following coincidental

fall in

the price of the leading export commodity, iron ore.Slide4

The twin crisis led to an unprecedented devastation of the socioeconomic fabric, thereby dampening prospects of the country achieving Vision 2035. The nation is once again experiencing increased vulnerability, destitution and poverty in light of heightened rates of unemployment and worsened livelihoods of millions of people.BackgroundSlide5

Before the virus struck in May 2014, Public financial management reforms were successfully carried out, leading to the advancement of the country’s economic management and accountability systems.As a result, there has been general rise in economic growth since 2001, with the years just prior to the Ebola outbreak (2012 and 2013) recording double digits GDP growth rates. Poverty headcount had decreased from 70% in 2003, to about 52% prior to the Ebola.Massive infrastructural development programmes commonplace across the country.Peaceful elections were coordinated by national officials and institutions; democratic dividends had been yielded; and there was general

consolidation of peace

.

The Economy Before the Ebola Slide6

Economic Impact of EVD6Estimated economic growth declined to 6.2% by end 2014—with non-iron ore growth at <1%—from projected estimate of 11.3% before Ebola.Revenue loss estimated at about Le 350 billion (USD74 mn) by end 2014.

30% decline in agricultural output; 60% drop in manufacturing output.

50% job loss in the private sector; especially tourism, construction and manufacturing.

Suspension of 5 new investment ventures valued at

appr

$1.2bn.

Cross-border trade disrupted & spike in consumer prices (inflation rose 9.4 % in F/Town & 7.9% national in Dec 2014)Slide7

Economic Impact of EVDSlide8

Where have WE gone wrong on the institutional & policy front?Did WE get our priorities right?Were WE able to balance our priorities?What key lessons and opportunities has the epidemic accorded us so that WE could do better going forward?

Crucial Questions Going ForwardSlide9

Lessons & Opportunities from Ebola9First, getting to and maintaining zero infections could be difficult to achieve if the health, social, political and economic systems remained the same as they were before the crisis. Second, when faced with a common threat citizens of SL have always demonstrated the capacity to build social capital rapidly, cutting across political, ethnic, and religious divides, in combating threats. This represents an untapped resource that can be exploited for the common fight against poverty, and the pursuit of the commonly held development goals.Slide10

10Third, the systems, institutional structures and governance arrangements in place are still fragile to support the successful drive towards prosperity illustrated by high growth rates, development programmes and policy reforms achieved before the epidemic.There is call to attention for a careful review of existing policies and programmes in order to design innovative measures, policy reforms, administrative actions, etc, that would guarantee a more resilient environment better able to deal with such threats. Lessons & Opportunities

from EbolaSlide11

The Ebola Recovery Strategy Broadly Divided into Two PartsA: Getting to and maintaining zero infectionsB: Mitigating and managing social, economic and governance effects of the epidemic Principles Guiding Strategy IncludeSupremacy of the Agenda for ProsperityPrioritising quick wins/rapid resultsStrengthening sector coordinationStrengthen sub-regional cooperationAdherence to the principles of aid effectivenessEtc.Among Strategic AssumptionsSpeedily getting to and maintaining zero infectionsSustaining efforts by government &DPs in the response & recovery Slide12

12Fourth, the crisis revealed sharply the high level of vulnerability of the country’s development trajectory, and presents an opportunity to revisit and make changes as necessary. A trend of high GDP growth was emerging when the epidemic struck. Coincidentally, it happened as the prices of principal exports, such as iron ore, slumped internationally. This accentuates the importance and indispensability of economic diversification for sustainable development.Fifth, a nation could hardly sustainably develop without

sustainable development of its

neighbours

. We are once more reminded about this & the need to strengthen sub-regional socioeconomic integration within the MRU in light of shared cross-border ancestry and destiny vis-à-vis spread of disease from one country into another for.

Lessons & Opportunities from EbolaSlide13

13Emphasising Supremacy of A4PSlide14

Getting to and Maintaining Zero 14Quality Surveillance and Extensive Contact TracingInfection Prevention and Control

Negotiated Safe and Dignified Burials

Cross Border Collaboration

Deepened Community Engagement

Mental and Psychosocial Support Service (MPSS)

Improved Operational EffectivenessSlide15

The Most Immediate PrioritiesPresidential Transition Priorities with clearly defined deliverables in the 1st 6 to 9 monthsRestoring basic health servicesGetting kids back to schoolsProviding social protection support in light of heightened vulnerability and povertyRevamping private sector activities with a key focus on support income generation for households and small scale operators.Slide16

16 Transparency and Accountability Systems: Strengthen internal control measures, and build capacity in critical areas such as procurement, supply chain management, financial management and monitoring & evaluation to reduce opportunities for corruption. Decentralization: Empower local Government with human, financial and operational capacity to sustain response.

Justice

:

Ensuring functionality of courts & other judiciary institutions across the country;

supporting re-integration of EVD victims & related persons

.

Security & peace-building

: Enhance coordination between security & justice.

Improve

access to information

.

Building National Systems for ResilienceSlide17

BuilbbuesBuStrengthen research and statistical systems.Strengthening Aid Effectiveness (Mutual accountability & Aid Coordination) Develop strong national emergency response system.Build on community strength & capabilities mobilised during the Ebola response, as well as trust in public institutions. Sub-regional initiative: Improve cross border security and intelligence, and participation in other initiatives

17

Building National

Systems for Resilience

cont.Slide18

Thank You18