1 UCERF32 Hazard Implications Hazard comparison metrics Inversion testing C onvergence and eqn set weighting Hazard maps Influence of logic tree branches Contributions to changes in hazard ID: 811554
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Slide1
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2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II
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UCERF3.2: Hazard Implications
Hazard
comparison
metrics
Inversion testing
C
onvergence and eqn. set weighting
Hazard maps
Influence of logic tree branches
Contributions to changes in hazard
Hazard
curves at
sites
Slide2Hazard Evaluation: Metrics
Ground motion values:
2% in 50 years (Prob. Exceed.)
10% in 50 years (Prob. Exceed.)RTGM (1% Prob. Collapse in 50 yr.)
Frequencies
PGA
5Hz1Hz Curves: NEHRP (2009) Test Cities Other WGCEP, PBRMaps: Full logic-tree for PGA (1440 branches) Partial tree for 1Hz (40 branches)
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Slide3Hazard Metrics: RTGM
Risk Targeted Ground Motion
(RTGM)Adopted by BSSC in conjunction with 2009 NEHRP provisionsGround motion for 1% probability of collapse in 50 years
Computed at frequencies: 5Hz and 1HzScalar valuedConsiders entire hazard curve
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Slide4Hazard Curves: Inversion Convergence
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San Diego
PGA
San Francisco
1Hz
Examine variation over repeated inversion
runs
Single “reference”
branch
100 runs
Slide5Hazard Curves: Inversion
Eqn. Weights
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San Diego
PGA
San Francisco
1Hz
Examine effect of varying inversion equation weights
11 weight variants
Slide6Hazard Maps: UC2 vs. UC3
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Slide7Hazard Ratio
s: Grid vs. Fault Sources
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Slide8Hazard Ratios
: Grid Source Comparison
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Slide9Hazard Ratios: Smooth Seis
. Comparison
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Slide10Branch Ratios: Fault Models
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Slide11Branch Ratios: Deformation Models
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Slide12Branch Ratios: Magnitude Scaling Rel.
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Slide13Branch Ratios: Dsr
(slip along rupture)
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Slide14Branch Ratios: M≥5 rate
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Slide15Branch Ratios: Off-fault M
max
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Slide16Branch Ratios: Smoothed Seis
. models
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Slide17Hazard Ratio: Sources of Change
Explain all non-yellow areas
Smoothed seismicity model
New faults, slip changes, or Mo rate changesMethodological changes
Slide18S
hows
influence of
Mmax
&
total
M≥5 rate increase for gridded seismicityUCERF 3.2 / NSHMP08 Grid Sources Only(and using only U2 Smoothed Seis.)
Sources of
Change: Mmax & M≥5 rate
Slide19Shows influence of
tighter U3
Smoothed
Seis. Model
UCERF 3.2 / NSHMP08
Grid Sources
Only(using both U2 & U3 Smoothed Seis.)
Artifact of “Deep seismicity” being excluded from denominator map
Sources
of
Change: Artifacts
Slide20UCERF 3.2 / NSHMP08
Grid Sources
Only
(using both U2 & U3 Smoothed
Seis
Map)
Influenced by UCERF3 smoothed- seismicity branch
Shows influence of
tighter U3
Smoothed
Seis
. Model
Sources
of
Change: Grid Sources
Slide21UCERF3/UCERF2
Mo Rate
Big Lagoon
-
Bald
Mtn
:
Extended
N ~60 km, and moment rate ~8 times higher on ABM
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults
are
black
Sources of Change:
Fault Sources
Slide22New
faults:
Klamath
Falls Lake E &
W
UCERF3/UCERF2
Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults
are
black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Slide23Gillem
and Cedar
Mtn.
faults have lower slip rates
UCERF3/UCERF2
Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults
are
black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Slide24Four new faults
Likely
Fault
(moment
rate
doubled)
UCERF3/UCERF2
Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults
are
black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Slide258 new faults
(ABM rates high due to block boundary)
Maacama
(
20% increase in moment rate)
West Napa
(factor of 3.5 increase in
Mo rate
, ABM about 4 times higher than others)
UCERF3/UCERF2
Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults
are
black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Slide26Great Valley 07 (
Orestimba
)
moment
rate
went down by ~60%
New
Great
V
alley
faults
UCERF3/UCERF2
Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults
are
black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Slide27Calaveras (So) -
Paicines
extension
Complex
combination of new faults and geometric and rate changes
UCERF3/UCERF2
Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults
are
black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Slide28N
ew fault:
Oceanic
– West
Hausna
(
NeoKinema
rate more
than 4 times higher than
others)
3 new
faults
UCERF3/UCERF2
Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults
are
black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Slide29N
ew fault:
Lost Hills
Mix of
new faults
& gridded
sources
New faults in Mojave
UCERF3/UCERF2
Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults
are
black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Slide30New
Fault:
Cerro
Prieto
N
ew
faults
:
San Clemente
San
Diego
Trough
Santa Cruz Catalina
Ridge
San Pedro Basin
UCERF3/UCERF2
Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults
are
black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Slide31Cucamonga:
biggest methodological change
Death Valley Faults
(North
,
South
, and
Black
M
tn.
F
rontal
): moment rates went down ~40%
UCERF3/UCERF2
Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults
are
black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Slide32Anacapa
Dume
:
moment rate down by factor of 3
UCERF3/UCERF2
Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults
are
black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Slide33Addition of, or moment rate change on faults
UCERF3/UCERF2
Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults
are
black
Slide34Hazard Analysis Sites
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Slide35Hazard Analysis Sites
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Slide36Hazard Curves:
Blue:
Logic tree weighted mean hazard curve (UC3)
Light Blue: Logic tree min max hazard curve range
Red:
UC2 logic tree weighted mean (solid), min and max (dashed) hazard curvesGreen: NSHMP reference valueGround motion histogram of logic tree branches summed over
weightsTornado diagram
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Slide37Hazard Curves: Los Angeles
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PGA
1Hz
Slide38Hazard Curves: San Francisco
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PGA
1Hz
Slide39Sites with changes > 10%
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Site
Group
change
Redding
WGCEP287%
Brookings
WGCEP
257%
San Diego
NEHRP
137%
Carson City
WGCEP
127%
Long Beach
NEHRP
122%
Vallejo
NEHRP
121%
Northridge
NEHRP
119%
Big Sur
WGCEP
118%
Century City
NEHRP
114%
Site
Group
change
San Bernardino
WGCEP
88%
Malibu West
WGCEP
86%
Eureka
NEHRP
86%
Palmdale
WGCEP
85%
Santa Rosa
NEHRP
83%
Oakland
NEHRP
82%
Death Valley
NEHRP
64%
Cucamonga
WGCEP
59%
Slide40Hazard Curves: Redding (
x3)
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PGA
1Hz
Slide41Grid & Fault Conributions
: Redding
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Slide42Hazard Curves: San Diego (
140%)
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PGA
1Hz
Slide43Hazard Curves: Vallejo
(120%)
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PGA
1Hz
Slide44Hazard Curves: San Bernardino
(88%
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PGA
1Hz
Slide45Hazard Curves: Oakland
(82%)
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PGA
1Hz
Slide46Hazard Curves: Cucamonga
(50%)
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PGA
1Hz
Slide47Hazard Ratios: PGA vs. 1Hz
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Slide48Hazard Ratios: PGA vs. 1Hz
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Slide49Hazard Ratios: Logic-Tree Weight Variation
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Slide50Continued UCERF3 analysis…
Branch averaged solutions
DeaggregationStacked histograms of ground motion distribution at sites for each logic tree node (branch correlations)
Repeat convergence and equation weight testsHigher resolution maps around San Francisco and Los AngelesHazard
analyses online:
http://
opensha.usc.edu/ftp/pmpowers/UCERF3.2/2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II
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