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Estimates of the coverage of parameter space by Estimates of the coverage of parameter space by

Estimates of the coverage of parameter space by - PowerPoint Presentation

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Estimates of the coverage of parameter space by - PPT Presentation

Latin Hypercube and Orthogonal sampling Emine Şule Yazıcı Koç University Joint work with Kevin Pamela Burrage Diane Donovan Thomas A McCourt Bevan Thompson Population ID: 615776

dimension trials sampling expected trials dimension expected sampling coverage parameter latin space hypercube size ots number trial total analyze

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Slide1

Estimates of the coverage of parameter space by Latin Hypercube and Orthogonal sampling

Emine Şule Yazıcı

Koç University

Joint

work

with

:Kevin, Pamela Burrage, Diane Donovan,

Thomas A McCourt

,

Bevan ThompsonSlide2

Population of ModelsPopulation of Models (POM) offer

a methodology:

for introducing inherent variability to capture the

underlying

dynamical

processes,

while simultaneously varying multiple parameters

.

UNCERTAINTY

QUANTIFICATIONSlide3

Erosion and the

Great Barrier Reef

 

 

 

 

                     

Regular/systematic sweeps sampling

erosionSampling at distinct times varying by longitude and latitudeSlide4

Latin Hypercube SamplingFirst discretize the parameter space

10-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-7071-801-2X2-3X3-4X

4-5X5-6X6-7X7-8X

Parameter 1: Age: 10-80

Parameter 2: Income: 1-8Slide5

 

Latin Hypercube Sampling

 

 

 

                   

    Slide6

3-D Latin Hypercube

SamplingSlide7

LHT is an

OS if

n = p

d

points are distributed evenly across sub-blocks.Some research shows:Uniformity of small dimensional margins.Improved representation of the underlying variability.A form of variance reduction.Better screening for effective parameters.Equally fast implementation.

Orthogonal Sampling (OS)Slide8

Overlapping Latin Trials

A LHT

for

d=2

and

n=6

k=2

trials

k=3

trials

k=4

trials

k=1

trials

k=5

trialsSlide9

We want to calculate the

expected

coverage

of the parameter spaceSlide10

Expected Coverage of the Parameter Space

by

k

trials

X

i

represents the expected intersection size of m arbitrary trials Slide11

How to calculate xi(n)Slide12

How many LHT’s are there of dimension d?There are n!d-1

different trials of dimension d

There are 8!

2

trials of dimension 3Slide13

The number of ways to choose with repetitionRemember that the number of ways to choose k elements from a set of size v

allowing repetition is Slide14

How many different selections of m

d-

trials

are

there?There aredifferent collections of d-trials of size m Slide15

Fix any row of a d-trialGiven any cell of a Latin Hypercube Trial of dimension d

Intersection of how many d-trial collections of size m contains this cell? Slide16

Calculating xi(n) for LHSTheorem

T

ake

a

set of m LHTs of dimension d on

[n]. The expected number of ordered d-tuples common to all m LHTs isSlide17

Calculating xi(n) for OSs Slide18

How many OT’s are there of dimension d?Let n=pd

There are (p

d-1

)!

dp

different trials of dimension d

XXXXXXXXXSlide19

How many OS’s are

there

of

dimension

d?

1 1 11 1 21 2 11 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 22 2 12 2 2(1,.) (1,.) (1,.)

(1,.) (1,.) (2,.)(1,.) (2,.) (1,.)(1,.) (2,.) (2,.)(2,.) (1,.) (1,.)(2,.) (1,.) (2,.)(2,.) (2,.) (1,.)(2,.) (2,.) (2,.)Assume dimension 3 so n=23p=2 and q= 43214There are p.d functions each having q! different choices. So a total of q!p.d=(pd-1)!pd different OT of dimension d.Slide20

How many OTs contain a fixed d-tuble?

1 1 1

1 1 2

1 2 1

1 2 2

2 1 1 2 1 22 2 12 2 2(1,.) (1,.) (1,.)(1,.) (1,.) (2,.)(1,.) (2,.) (1,.)(1,.) (2,.) (2,.)

(2,.) (1,.) (1,.)(2,.) (1,.) (2,.)(2,.) (2,.) (1,.)(2,.) (2,.) (2,.)1 1 1There are (pd-1)!pd OTs each having n=pd d-tuples. There are a total of nd d-tuples, so each d-tuple occurs at n(pd-1)!pd / nd OTs. Slide21

Calculating xi(n) for OSTheorem

T

ake

a

set of m OTs of dimension d

on [n]. The expected number of ordered d-tuples common to all m OTs isSlide22

Expected Coverage of the Parameter Space

by

k

trials

X

i

represents the expected intersection size of m arbitrary trials Slide23

Projection onto subspacesSlide24

Expected Coverage of the 2- Dimensional

Subspaces

X

i

represents

the expected intersection size of m arbitrary trials Slide25

Edge coverage of d-trialsAn (i,j)-

edge

of a d-

tuple

a=(a

1,a2,…,ad) is an ordered pair (ai, aj)There are edges in a d-tuple and total different

edges in a d-trial.There are a total of many possible edges.Slide26

How many d-trials contain a fixed edge?

di

fferent

d-trials containing a

fixed edge

There are (a1,a2,a3…,ad) Defines a 2-dimensional subspaceSlide27

The number of common edges to

all

m d-

trials

in LHSlide28

Situation so far Slide29

How to analyze:Binomial expansion

gives

:

AlsoSlide30

How to analyzeSlide31

How to analyzeSlide32

How to analyze

usingSlide33

Theoretical bounds on percentage coverageTheorem In the case of Latin Hypercube sampling and Orthogonal sampling (with

n=

p

d

)

the expected percentage coverage of parameter space is given bySlide34

Simulation Results (t=2)

d

=5Slide35

Simulation Results (t=3)

d

=5Slide36

Simulation Results (t=4)

d

=5