PPT-Advanced Probability Probability

calculus 1 Pr h 0 If e deductively implies h then Prhe 1 disjunction rule If h and g are mutually exclusive then Pr h or g Pr h Pr g disjunction rule If h and g are . 3.1 . The Concept of Probability. 3.2 . Sample Spaces and Events. 3.3 . Some Elementary Probability Rules. 3.4 . Conditional Probability and Independence. 3.5 . Bayes’ Theorem. 3-. 2. Probability Concepts. 4. Introduction. (slide 1 of 3). A key . aspect of solving real business problems is dealing appropriately with uncertainty.. This involves recognizing explicitly that uncertainty exists and using quantitative methods to model uncertainty.. What we learned last class…. We are not good at recognizing/dealing with randomness. Our “random” coin flip results weren’t streaky enough.. If B/G results behave like independent coin flips, we know how many families to EXPECT with 0,1,2,3,4 girls.. Probability is used all of the time in real life. Gambling . Sports. Weather. Insurance. Medical Decisions. Standardized Tests. And others. Definition of Probability. “The . likelihood of something . Conditional Probability. Conditional Probability: . A probability where a certain prerequisite condition has already been met.. Conditional Probability Notation. The probability of Event A, given that Event B has already occurred, is expressed as P(A | B).. Slide . 2. Probability - Terminology. Events are the . number. of possible outcome of a phenomenon such as the roll of a die or a fillip of a coin.. “trials” are a coin flip or die roll. Slide . A Year 2 Joint Hurricane . Testbed. Project Update. . Mark DeMaria. 1. , Robert DeMaria. 2. , Andrea Schumacher. 2. , . Daniel Brown. 3. , Michael Brennan. 3. , Richard Knabb. 4. , Pablo Santos. 5. Sixth Edition. Douglas C. Montgomery George C. . Runger. Chapter 2 Title and Outline. 2. 2. Probability. 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events . 2-1.1 Random Experiments. 2-1.2 Sample Spaces . Sixth Edition. Douglas C. Montgomery George C. . Runger. Chapter 2 Title and Outline. 2. 2. Probability. 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events . 2-1.1 Random Experiments. 2-1.2 Sample Spaces . A value between zero and one that describe the relative possibility(change or likelihood) an event occurs.. The MEF announces that in 2012 the change Cambodia economic growth rate is equal to 7% is 80%.. Probability and Probability Distribution Dr Manoj Kumar Bhambu GCCBA-42, Chandigarh M- +91-988-823-7733 mkbhambu@hotmail.com Probability and Probability Distribution: Definitions- Probability Rules –Application of Probability calculus. 1 ≥ . Pr. (h) ≥ 0. If e deductively implies h, then Pr(h|e) = 1. .. (disjunction rule) If h and g are mutually exclusive, then . Pr. (h or g) = . Pr. (h) + . Pr. (g). (disjunction rule) If h and g are . A Year 2 Joint Hurricane . Testbed. Project Update. . Mark DeMaria. 1. , Robert DeMaria. 2. , Andrea Schumacher. 2. , . Daniel Brown. 3. , Michael Brennan. 3. , Richard Knabb. 4. , Pablo Santos. 5. 4. Compute the number of combinations of . n. individuals taken . k. at a time.. Use . combinations to calculate probabilities.. Use . the multiplication counting principle and combinations to calculate probabilities..