PPT-Ensemble prediction

and postprocessing team reports to NGGPS Tom Hamill ESRL Physical Sciences Division tomhamillnoaagov 303 4973060 1 Proposed team members Ensemble system development Postprocessing. DataMining. Project . Presentation. Instructor. : Prof. Dave . Newman. Team. : Hitesh . Sajnani, . Vaibhav. Saini, . Kusum. . Kumar. Donald Bren School of Information and Computer Science. University of California, Irvine. fundamentals. Tom Hamill. NOAA ESRL, Physical Sciences Division. tom.hamill@noaa.gov. NOAA Earth System. Research Laboratory. “Ensemble weather prediction”. possibly. different. models. or models. The COAMPS-TC Ensemble and the Combined . COAMPS-TC/HWRF/GFDL Multi-model Ensemble. Jon Moskaitis, Alex Reinecke, Jim Doyle and the COAMPS-TC team. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA. 2015 TCRF / 69. review for WGNE, 2010. Tom Hamill. 1. and Pedro de Silva-Dias. 2. 1. NOAA/ESRL. 2. Laboratório . Nacional. de . Computação. . Científica. tom.hamill@noaa.gov. 1. Sources of improvement in probabilistic forecasts. Chris Ferro (University of Exeter). T. . Fricker. , . F. . Otto, . D. . Stephenson, . E. . Suckling. CliMathNet. Conference (3 July 2013, Exeter, UK). Evaluating decadal hindcasts: . why and . how?. Interannual. -to-Decadal Predictions Experiments.  . L. Goddard. , on behalf of the . US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group & Collaborators. : . Lisa Goddard, . Arun. Kumar, Amy Solomon, James Carton, Clara . Chris Ferro (University of Exeter). Tom . Fricker. , . Fredi. Otto, Emma Suckling. Credibility and performance. Many factors may influence credibility judgments, but should do so if and only if they affect our expectations about the performance of the predictions.. Daniel P. Eleuterio, . Office of Naval Research. Jessie Carman, NOAA Office of Ocean and Atmosphere Research. Fred . Toepfer. , NOAA National Weather Service. Dave . McCarren. , Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command. Modeling and Development Division. CPTEC/INPE. Middle-Range Ensemble Forecast at CPTEC/INPE - Current Activities. 2. Local Ensemble Transformed . Kalman. Filter. OUTLINE. 3. New method to obtain perturbed initial conditions . Streamflow. Prediction Model. Kevin . Berghoff. , Senior . Hydrologist. Northwest River Forecast . Center. Portland, OR. Overview. Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). 3 Components to model. Presentation by: Mehdi Shahriari. Advisor: Guido . Cervone. Research Questions. How to use Analog Ensemble . for probabilistic weather prediction?. . What is the uncertainty associated with wind power estimates?. The COAMPS-TC Ensemble and the Combined . COAMPS-TC/HWRF/GFDL Multi-model Ensemble. Jon Moskaitis, Alex Reinecke, Jim Doyle and the COAMPS-TC team. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA. 2015 TCRF / 69. Sahil Patel. 1. , Justin Guo. 2. , Maximilian Wang. 2. Advisors: Dr. . Cuixian. (Tracy) Chen, Ms. Jessica Gray, Ms. Georgia Smith, Ms. Bailey Hall, Mr. Michael Suggs. 1. John T. Hoggard High School, . Deterministic object detection, tracking and forecasting system. Uses 3D volumetric radar data (10 elevations and near surface scan). 3D storm characterization with attributes regarding geometry, intensity, movement, hydrometeors, lightning.