DLRde Chart 1 Energy Revolution a sustainable energy outlook for Belarus Methodology and Results Sonja Simon Department Energy Systems Analysis Institute of Engineering ID: 759689
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Slide1
> German Aerospace Center> Simon > Minsk 2018
DLR.de • Chart 1
Energy [R]evolution – a sustainable energy outlook for BelarusMethodology and Results
Sonja
Simon
Department
Energy Systems Analysis
Institute of Engineering
Thermodynamics
German Aerospace
Center
(DLR)
Slide2BackgroundClimate Change: What is the challenge?Objective of the Scenarios: What is the target?MethodologyScenario approachEnergy modellingAssumptionsResults from the Energy [R]evolution Scenario for Belarus
Structure
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Slide3Scenarios
from
IPCC assessment report
Challenges from Climate Change
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Below 2°C
scenarios
For
the
Paris Treaty
targets
:
- 70%
of
all CO
2
by
2040
reducing
up
to
95% CO
2
from
energy
by
2050
Slide4Global Scenarios from the International Energy Agency: World Energy Outlook*
Challenges for future energy system
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*International Energy Agency 2016
Fossil fuels remain the backbone of global energy demandLarge efficiency potentials are available but not exploitedCO2 > 50% of 2014
Primary
energy shares & CO2
Missing
the
Paris Treaty
targets
We
are
aiming
at a
more
ambitious
pathway
: an
Energy
[R]
evolution
Slide5> German Aerospace Center> Simon > Minsk 2018
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German Aerospace Center (Federal Research Center)
www.dlr.de
Research
AreasAeronautics, Space research, TransportEnergy: Power and heat storage technologies, fuel cells, CSP, efficient fossil-fuel power stationsEnergy Systems Analysis
Energy
System Modeling
Renewable
Energies
:
Resources and PotentialsMarket Strategies Cost projections
Slide6Experience
ProjectsOn global level: The Energy [R]evolution – a sustainable world energy outlook 2015 (5. update, since 2006)Coming up: 2.0°C Scenario for all GHGOn regional level: GP Energy [R]evolution series for over 40 countries: A sustainable Poland Energy outlook (2013)Energy [R]evolution for the Canary Islands (2015)A sustainable Brazil Energy outlook (2016)
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Slide7Challenges for transforming the energy system in Belarus
98% of primary energy from fossil fuels10 GW capacity, 99% for GasImport dependency for gasCurrent growth rates of renewables are very slow
> German Aerospace Center> Simon > Minsk 2016
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IEA 2016: World
Energy
Balances
Slide8Objective: A more sustainable Energy System for Belarus
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Transformation pathway for Belarus
towards a renewable energy system
Feasibility of a
transformation
of the energy
system
>90% of CO
2
emission reduction by 2050
Low risk
technologies:
Phasing out hard
coal, lignite and oil
No nuclear power plant
Sustainable use of biomass (predominantly domestic residues)
Energy security
Expanding
renewables and
efficiency
Slide9BackgroundClimate Change: What is the challenge?Objective of the Scenarios: What is the target?MethodologyScenario approachEnergy modellingAssumptionsResults from the Energy [R]evolution Scenario for Belarus
Structure
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Slide10Methodology: Scenario Approach
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2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
long term target year
Forecasting
Projection of technology
development and
socio-economic change
‘
Reference’ future world:
WEO 2015
Normative target world:
Energy [R]evolution
Backcasting
required interventions
and investments
Long
term scenarios starting from
normative targets
(
backcasting
)
Development
paths of
proven
technologies
R
eview process
by national energy experts
Scenario: If-then analysis
no “prediction”
Slide11Methodology
: Long term Modeling Simulation
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energy
system
inventory*
demand
supply
political framework
s
cenario development 2050
sustainabilitytargets
renewable energy potential
efficiency measures
energy system simulation model (Mesap)
GDPpopulationintensity
Results
sectoral
final energy demands
energy supply structures
primary energy demandpower supply costsCO2 emissions
* source: IEA energy balances
Slide12Thr Energy System Model: simulation of energy balances
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IEA
energy
balances
Slide13Framework: The Mesap/Planet softwareSoftware for structuring and simulating energy systems no optimisation but a bottom up accounting frameworkConsistent balancing of material and energy flowsTechnology databaseTechnical and economical parameters (efficiencies, CHP coefficients, investment costs, O&M-costs,…) in time seriesCalibration based on the IEA energy balances for BelarusIncluding adaptions according to national statistics
Energy System Model
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Slide14Scenario assumptions
> German Aerospace Center> Simon > Minsk 2016
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Reference Scenario
(Business
as
usual
)
Based
on World
Energy
Outlook (IEA 2014)
for
Eurasia
2040
2050:
scenario
extended
by
trends
Current
efficiency
targets
for
Belarus: -60%
energy
intensity
by
2020
Current
policy
for
Renewable
Energy
Energy
[R]
evolution
scenario
GDP/
population
as
in REF
Ambitious efficiency measures (based on analysis by University Utrecht)
Exploiting
the
r
enewable
Energy
Potential
sector
coupling
Expansion of CHP and flexible gas power plants
Mobility: modal shift towards public transport, e-mobility …(modeled by Belarus
Expert
)
Learning curves for investment costs
Slide15Development of intensity from Eastern Europe (global study)
Efficiency potentials
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Slide16Renewable Energy Potentials
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Wind and Solar Potential: DLR-Model EnDAT
Sustainable Biomass potentialBiogas/Biomass: 2-3 GW for power production ~180-260 PJ primary energy from wood, straw & agricultural residues
full
load hour potential curves
Land
use
exclusion
masks
;
weather
data
;
technology
data
Power
production
with
hourly
resolution
,
aggregated
on national
level
Wind: 35
TWh
at 2400 h/a (6 m/s)
PV:165
TWh
at 1000 h/a
Slide17Renewable Power Cost Projections
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Slide18Fuel cost assumptions
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Slide19Selected scenario results
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Final
energy
demand
by
sector
Heat
and
transport
supply
E
lectricity
generation
and
costs
Primary
energy
CO
2
-
emissions
Slide20Development of total final energy demand by sector – scenarios REF, E[R]
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-47%
Slide21Energy supply for transport –
scenarios REF, E[R]
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48%
Slide22Heat supply in the scenarios REF, E[R]
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18-25%
Slide23Electricity generation under the REF and E[R] scenarios
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90% RE
Slide24Renewable Power Cost Projections
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Slide25Primary energy demand – scenarios REF, E[R]
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-85%
fossils
Slide26CO2 Emissions under the REF and E[R] scenario
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Slide2790% Reduction of CO2 emissions to a sustainable level is feasibleUnder application of ambitious efficiency targetsSecurely supplied by renewablesDispatchable power: Hydro, biomass, geothermal, gas/hydrogenUnder reasonable/lower costsPolicy measures necessary to initiate the transformationAdditional aspectsAssumptions on grid and storage needs based on literaturesee (Scholz et al. (2016). "Application of a high-detail energy system model to derive power sector characteristics at high wind and solar shares." Energy Economicsdepending on international interconnections
Conclusion
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Slide28Thank you for you attention!
> German Aerospace Center> Simon > Minsk 2018
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c
ontact
: Sonja.Simon@dlr.de
Slide29Links and references
Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution 2015 http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2015/Energy-Revolution-2015-Full.pdfGreenpeace Brazil Energy [R]evolution 2016: http://greenpeace.org.br/revolucaoIEA 2016: World Energy Outlook
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