to ecosystembased fisheries management Rainer Froese RD3 Seminar GEOMAR Kiel 15052014 Overview Overview of fisheriesrelated research The reformed Common Fisheries Policy The ID: 444097
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Slide1
From verge of collapse to ecosystem-based fisheries management
Rainer
Froese
RD3 Seminar
GEOMAR,
Kiel,
15.05.2014Slide2
OverviewOverview of fisheries-related researchThe reformed Common Fisheries PolicyThe MSY
concept
New approaches to estimate
MSY
Safe biological limits
Size matters
QuestionsSlide3
Overview of fisheries-related researchSlide4
Fisheries-relevant Research in Recent YearsSee www.fishbase.de/rfroese for
PDFs
Martell, S. and R.
Froese
, 2013.
A simple method for estimating MSY from catch and resilience
. Fish and Fisheries 14: 504-514, doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2012.00485.x
Froese
, R. and M.
Quaas
. 2013.
Rio+20 and the reform of the Common Fisheries Policy in Europe
. Marine Policy 39:53-55,
doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2012.10.007
Villasante
, S., D.
Gascuel
and R.
Froese
. 2012.
Rebuilding fish stocks and changing fisheries management, a major challenge for the Common Fisheries Policy reform in Europe
. Ocean and Coastal Management 70:1-3,
Froese
, R. and M.
Quaas
. 2012.
Mismanagement of the North Sea cod by the European Council
. Ocean and Coastal Management 70:54-58,
doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2012.04.005
Quaas
, M., R.
Froese
, H.
Herwartz
, T.
Requate
, J.O. Schmidt and R. Voss. 2012.
Fishing industry borrows from natural capital at high shadow interest rates
. Ecological Economics,
doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.08.002
Froese
, R. and A.
Proelss
. 2012.
Is a stock overfished if it is depleted by overfishing
? A response to the rebuttal of Agnew et al. to
Froese
and
Proelss
“Evaluation and legal assessment of certified seafood”. Marine Policy 38:548-550,
doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2012.07.001
Froese
, R. and A.
Proelss
. 2012.
Evaluation and legal assessment of certified seafood
. Marine Policy 36:1284-1289, doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2012.03.017
Froese
, R., D. Zeller, K.
Kleisner
and D.
Pauly
. 2012.
What catch data can tell us about the status of global fisheries
. Marine Biology 159: 1283-1292, doi:10.1007/s00227-012-1909-6Slide5
MoreKleisner
, K., D. Zeller, R.
Froese
and D.
Pauly
. 2012.
Using global catch data for inferences on the world's marine fisheries
. Fish and Fisheries
doi
:
10.1111/j.1467-2979.2012.00469.x
Norse, E.A., S. Brooke, W.W.L. Cheung, M.R. Clark, I.
Ekeland
, R.
Froese
, K.M.
Gjerde
, R.L.
Haedrich
, S.S.
Heppell
,
T.Morato
, L.E. Morgan, D.
Pauly
, R.
Sumaila
and R. Watson. 2012.
Sustainability of deep-sea fisheries
. Marine Policy 36:307-320,
Pauly
, D. and R.
Froese
. 2012.
Comments on FAO's State of Fisheries and Aquaculture, or 'SOFIA 2010'.
Marine Policy 36:746-752.
Froese
, R. and M.
Quaas
. 2011.
Three options for rebuilding the cod stock in the eastern Baltic Sea
. Marine Ecology Progress Series
434:197-2011
Froese
, R. 2011.
Fishery reform slips through the net
.
Nature
475:7
Froese
, R., T.A. Branch, A.
Proelß
, M.
Quaas
, K. Sainsbury and C. Zimmermann. 2011.
Generic harvest control rules for European fisheries
. Fish and Fisheries
12:340-351
Khalilian
, S., R.
Froese
, A.
Proelss
, T.
Requate
. 2010.
Designed for Failure: A Critique of the Common Fisheries Policy of the European Union
. Marine Policy
34:1178-1182
Froese
, R. and A.
Proelß
. 2010.
Rebuilding fish stocks no later than 2015: will Europe meet the deadline?
Fish and Fisheries 11:194-202,
Froese
, R. 2008.
The continuous smooth hockey stick: a newly proposed
spawner
-recruitment model
. Journal of Applied Ichthyology 24: 703-704,
Froese
, R., A. Stern-
Pirlot
, H. Winker and D.
Gascuel
. 2008.
Size Matters: How Single-Species Management Can Contribute To Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management
. Fisheries Research
92:231-241
Froese
, R. 2004.
Keep it simple: three indicators to deal with overfishing
. Fish and Fisheries 5:86-91Slide6
The Reformed Common Fisheries PolicySlide7
The new CFPArticle 2.2The
CFP shall apply the precautionary approach to fisheries management, and shall aim
to
ensure
that exploitation of living marine biological resources restores and
maintains populations
of harvested species above levels which can produce the
maximum sustainable
yield
.Slide8
CFP and the Ecosystem ApproachPreamble of CFP
Whereas: ...
(11)
The CFP should contribute
to the protection of the marine environment, to the sustainable management of all commercially exploited species, and in particular
to the achievement of good environmental status by 2020
, as set out in Article 1(1) of Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council1.
(13) An ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management needs to be implemented,
environmental impacts of fishing activities should be limited
and unwanted catches should be avoided and reduced as far as possible.Slide9
CFP and the Ecosystem ApproachArticle 4.1 (9) 'ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management' means an integrated approach to managing fisheries within ecologically meaningful boundaries which seeks to manage the use of natural resources, taking account of fishing and other human activities, while
preserving both the biological wealth and the biological processes necessary to safeguard the composition, structure and functioning of the habitats of the ecosystem affected
, by taking into account the knowledge and uncertainties regarding biotic, abiotic and human components of ecosystems;
Article 4.1 (11)
'low impact fishing' means
utilising
selective fishing techniques which have a low detrimental impact on marine ecosystems
or which may result in low fuel emissions, or both; Slide10
CFP and Protected AreasPreamble of CFP(22) In order to contribute to the conservation of living aquatic resources and marine ecosystems, the Union should
endeavour
to
protect areas that are biologically sensitive, by designating them as protected areas. In such areas, it should be possible to restrict or to prohibit fishing activities.
When deciding which areas to designate, particular attention should be paid to those in which there is clear evidence of heavy concentrations of fish below minimum conservation reference size and of spawning grounds, and to areas which are deemed to be bio-geographically sensitive. Account should also be taken of existing conservation areas. [....] Slide11
Article 8, Establishment of fish stock recovery areas 1. The Union shall, while taking due account of existing conservation areas, endeavour
to
establish protected areas due to their biological sensitivity, including areas where there is clear evidence of heavy concentrations of fish below minimum conservation reference size and of spawning grounds.
In such areas fishing activities may be restricted or prohibited in order to contribute to the conservation of living aquatic resources and marine ecosystems. Slide12
CFP and Minimizing Impact of FishingArticle 2.3 The CFP shall implement the ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management so as to ensure that
negative impacts of fishing activities on the marine ecosystem are
minimised
, and shall
endeavour
to ensure that aquaculture and fisheries activities avoid the degradation of the marine environment.Slide13
Article 4.1 (17) 'minimum conservation reference size' means the size of a living marine aquatic species taking into account maturity, as established by Union law, below which restrictions or incentives apply that aim to avoid capture through fishing activity; such size replaces, where relevant, the minimum landing size
; Slide14
The MSY conceptSlide15
MSY, Bmsy and Fmsy
MSY
is the maximum sustainable yield
Biomass (
B
) is the weight of the fish in the sea
B
msy
is the biomass that can produce
MSY
F
msy
is the fishing pressure that eventually results in
B
msy
and
MSY
A stock is and remains in good status if
B
>
B
msy
and
F
<
F
msy
Slide16
Background of the MSY
Concept
Schaefer 1954; BioDivPopGrowthMSY.xlsSlide17
Surplus Production ImplicationsSurplus production (Y)
is
the
production
of
biomass
beyond
what
is
needed
to
maintain
current
population
size
If
a
fishery
only
catches
the
surplus
production
,
then
the
population
size
remains
If
a
fishery
catches
more
,
then
the
population
shrinks
If
it
catches
less
,
then
the
population
growsSlide18
Surplus Production ImplicationsSurplus production
has
a
maximum
at
about
half
of
unexploited
population
size
B
∞
Keeping
a
population
at 0.5
B
∞
allows
catching
MSY
forever
A
population
is
kept
stable
if
the
fishing
rate
F
equals
the
intrinsic
growth
rate
r
t
MSY
is
reached
at ½
B
∞
and
½
r
max
Thus,
MSY
is
reached
at
F
msy
= ½
r
max
Slide19
New Approaches to Estimate MSYSlide20
MSY from Catch and ResilienceFor a population to sustain a history of output such as catch, it needs to have had a certain size and productivityIf you know the time series of annual production (biomass taken out for human use), and you know the productivity of the species, then you can calculate biomass and reference points Slide21
Catch-MSY
Method
Martell &
Froese
2013
Output of the Catch-MSY method showing “viable” pairs surplus production rate
r
and
unexploited biomass
k
for North Sea cod. The red line indicates all
r-k
pairs that would result in
the same estimate of
MSY
;
the red circle indicates the geometric. While the estimate of
MSY
is
r
obust, the geometric mean
r
= 0.24 depends on the lower bound for
r
. Slide22
New CMSY-Method in prep.Same approach as in Catch-MSYNew, objective approach to determine rmax
This results in surprisingly good estimates of biomass time series,
B
msy
and
F
msy
Formal Bayesian approach under developmentSlide23
Herring in the Gulf of Riga I
4
-step zoom-in on area used to estimate geometric mean
r
,
k
and
MSY
23
1) assumed r-k space
2
)
r
max
in upper half
3) < 1% outliers in
k
4) minimize SE of
MSYSlide24
Herring in the Gulf of Riga II
Fisheries reference points
MSY
(bold red line in upper left graph),
F
msy
= 0.5
r
and
B
msy
= 0.5
k
24Slide25
Herring in the Gulf of Riga III
Blue lines are prior biomass windows, medium resilience is prior for r. Red line is observed
Biomass, black line predicted biomass, with 5
th
and 95
th
percentile. Required data are catch.
25Slide26
Catch/biomass ratio
u
as proxy for
F
. Dotted line is
u
msy
. Black line is predicted, red line
i
s observed.
Herring in the Gulf of Riga IV
26Slide27
Herring in the Central Baltic
Better fit possible by replacing defaults with “informative priors”.
27Slide28
North Sea Herring
28Slide29
Safe biological limitsSlide30
The Past Common Fisheries Policy(until 2013)Apply a precautionary approach to fishingKeep fish stocks within safe biological limitsSlide31
Safe Biological Limits
Conceptual drawing of the hockey stick relationship between spawning stock size and recruitment.
SSB
lim
marks the border below which recruitment declines,
SSB
pa
marks a precautionary distance to
SSB
lim
, and
2
*
SSB
pa
can be used as a proxy for
SSB
msy
, the stock size that can produce the maximum
sustainable
catch
.
(
Froese
et al. submitted)Slide32
Status of European Stocks
Based on the ICES Stock Summary database 10/2013 with data for 45
stocks. Update of
Froese
&
Proelss
2010
Extending the trends
in the last 3 years for the
95% confidence limits…
SSBpa
UNCLOS
UNFSASlide33
Quality of Scientific AdviceFisheries science holds that mortality caused by sustainable fishing (Fmsy
) should be less than natural mortality (
M
) caused by e.g. predation, diseases, natural hazards or old age
Doubling mortality reduces life time and reproductive phase by half and also reduces average size and fecundity
However, in 29 of 38 stocks (76%) with available data, the ICES estimate of
F
msy
exceeded
M
, on average by 62%
(
Froese
et al. submitted
)Slide34
Fishing Mortality may be Higher
Based on the ICES Stock Summary database 10/2013 with data for 45 stocks
True
F/
F
msy
may be higher
because
of unrealistically high
F
msy
in 76% of the stocks
(
Froese
et al. submitted)Slide35
Quality of Scientific AdviceICES provides estimates of the border of safe biological limits (SSBpa). Below
SSB
pa
recruitment may be reduced and the stock is at increased risk of collapse
In 14 of 43 stocks (33%) with available data, the ICES estimate of
SSB
pa
fell below the median estimate of three independent scientific methods.Slide36
Hake Southern Stock
Froese
et al. submittedSlide37
Underestimation of Safe Biological Limits
Analysis of stock-recruitment data for North Sea
Doggerbank
Sandeel
(san-ns1),
with three different methods. [S-R_HS_5_san-ns1.r]
SSB
pa
ICES three independent methods
(
Froese
et al. submitted)Slide38
Stock Biomass may be Lower
Based on the ICES Stock Summary database 10/2013 with data for 45 stocks
True
SSB/
SSB
pa
may be lower because of unrealistically low
SSB
pa
in 33% of the stocks
(
Froese
et al. submitted)Slide39
Common Sense Rules for Ecosystem-based ManagementOnly catch fish for direct human consumption
Only catch species with high resilience
Do not damage the ecosystem
Take less than nature
Let fish grow and spawn before captureSlide40
Size Matters (Froese et al. 2008, Froese et al. in prep)
Three important points in the life of species with indeterminate growth:
Length at maturity (
L
m90
)
Length
L
max
dW
/
dt
where growth is maximum
Length
L
opt
where cohort biomass is maximumSlide41
Natural Selection “Economizes” Organisation of ReproductionIf
r
eproduction happens when production of tissue is maximum
L
m90
<=
L
max
dW
/
dt
(= in
semelparous
, < in
iteroparous
)
L
m90
<=
L
opt
(then
t
opt
= generation time)
L
max
dW
/
dt
=
L
opt
(then most offspring are produced when production of tissue is maximum) Slide42
Basic Equations
Slide43
Economizing Reproduction
Froese
and
Pauly
2013
Life history strategies for the timing of reproduction: A)
semelparous
, B)
iteroparous
with
parental care, C) broadcast
spawners
.
Note: Blue line is not to scale.
Slide44
Tradeoff between generation time and peak fecundity
Froese
et al. in prep.Slide45
Timing of spawning
Based on 232 studies.
Froese
and
Pauly
2013Slide46
Size Matters!
Biomasse
of a cohort (e.g. cod) vs length. Maturity is reached at
L
m90
= 59
cm. Maximum
g
rowth and high fecundity is reached at
L
opt
= 86
cm. However, legal fishing starts at
L
l
= 35 cm.
Froese
et al. 2008
L
m90
L
lSlide47
Fishing with Fmsy starting at L
l
will not rebuild the stocks
Cohort
biomasse
(e.g. cod) without fishing (bold curve) and with
F
=
F
msy
fishing
Starting at legal length (dotted curve).
Froese
et al. 2008
L
m90Slide48
Fishing with
F=M
starting at
L
copt
rebuilds the stock
Unexploited cohort biomass (bold curve), with
F
msy
–fishing (dotted curve), and with
F
=
M
fishing starting at
L
copt
(dashed curve), so that the mean length in the catch and
In the exploited part of the stock equals
L
opt
.
Froese
et al. in prep.
L
m90
Large biomass (~
1.2
Bmsy
)
Higher catch
Lower costSlide49
Impact of Fishing on Size Structure
Length-frequency without fishing (bold curve), with
F
=
F
msy
fishing after
L
l
,
and with
F = M
Fishing after
L
copt
.
With
L
copt
fishing all fish reach maturity and about 2/3 reach
L
opt
.
With
F
msy
fishing after
L
l
,
only 2/3 reach maturity and only 1/3 reach
L
opt
.
Froese
et al. in prep.Slide50
Thank You