Mobility Asfaltdag 2014 Amersfoort Carlo van de Weijer Director Strategic Area Smart Mobility TUe TomTom Traffic Solutions Source Raymond Kurzweil Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence Disruptive change ID: 563663
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Disruptive" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1Slide2
Disruptive
Mobility
Asfaltdag
2014, Amersfoort
Carlo van de Weijer Director Strategic Area Smart Mobility TU/e,
TomTom Traffic SolutionsSlide3Slide4Slide5
Source: Raymond Kurzweil, Kurzweil Accelerating IntelligenceSlide6
Disruptive change
Digitize
DisruptDemonetizeDemocratize Slide7
DemonetizationSlide8
DemonetizationSlide9
The mobile being
The 1h06m mobility urgeSlide10
The mobile being
Mobile hours per day
Gross Domestic Product (GPD) per Capita US$ 1985 Slide11Slide12Slide13
The car has become a computer on wheels
A modern car produces 100Tb data per hour
The new Mercedes S-Class has more ECU’s and 100x more lines of software code compared to a Boeing 747
The vehicle starts outsmarting the driver. After ESP and ABS, more and more functions are taken over by the vehicleSlide14Slide15
Cost of Mobility
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDP
Environment: 0,3 -
1,4 % GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP
________________________________________________________________________________TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9
% GDPSlide16
Cost of Mobility
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDP
Environment: 0,3 -
1,4 % GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP
________________________________________________________________________________TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9
% GDPSlide17
Stupid MobilitySlide18
Traffic Death in the Netherlands 1950-2010
Relatively less cars are involved in fatal accidents
Limited effectiveness of law enforcement: Less and less accidents caused by traditional traffic offenses; driver distraction is the new enemy
Volvo: “no one will be killed or injured in a new Volvo by 2020”Slide19Slide20
Cost of Mobility
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDP
Environment: 0,3 -
1,4 % GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP
________________________________________________________________________________TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9
% GDPSlide21
Stupid MobilitySlide22
NOx (g/kWh)
0,30
1
2
3
4
0,20
– 95 %
– 97 %
0,40
Euro 1
5
6
7
8
0,10
Euro 2
Euro 3
Euro 4
Euro 5
Euro 1 1993
Euro 2 1996
Euro 3 2000
Euro 4 2006
Euro 5 2009
Euro 6 2014
Euro 6
PM (g/kWh)
Emission legislationSlide23
Cost of Mobility
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDP
Environment: 0,3 -
1,4 % GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP
________________________________________________________________________________TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9
% GDPSlide24
Stupid MobilitySlide25
Stupid MobilitySlide26
Stupid MobilitySlide27
Stupid MobilitySlide28
Company ConfidentialSlide29
Traffic will be a self-steering system of well-informed individuals. Governments will have to make a shift from managing traffic to facilitating traffic.
Traffic jams are a voluntary and predictable event.Cost of congestion decreases as drivers can use time effectively
Automation will lead to increased use of roads
Traffic Management 2.0Slide30
Cost of Mobility
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDP
0% GDP
Environment: 0,3 - 1,4 % GDP
0% GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2
% GDP 0% GDP
________________________________________________________________________________TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9 % GDP
0% GDPSlide31
Governmental cost of modalities, €/1000pk, NL
Bron: CE 2014, AccentureSlide32
Transparent supply-demand information will
change mobilitySlide33Slide34
“
Simplification” of road infrastructure:Refrain from Variable Message Signs, DRIPS, portals
Return to elementary, two-dimensional roads with high tech focus basic functions (friction, support, road marking, drainage, +)Less variety in traffic rules (variable speed, rush hour lanes, ++). The limited effect will not justify the increased complexity and costSmart Mobility = Smart Cars on no-nonsense infrastructureMore road traffic, more payloadCreate flexibility for the future, unlike examples below
34
Future roadsSlide35
Vehicles will solve most of their own problems
Smart Mobility: Intelligent mobility with intelligent vehicles on elementary roads
Automation and demand-supply services will lead to further growth of road traffic
The high-tech will be in the asphalt, and driving on top of it