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Fumiaki Ogawa Fumiaki Ogawa

Fumiaki Ogawa - PowerPoint Presentation

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Fumiaki Ogawa - PPT Presentation

12 Yongqi Gao 23 Noel Keenlyside 12 Torben Koenigk 4 Vladimir Semenov 5 Lingling Suo 23 Shuting Yang 6 Tao Wang 7 1 Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Norway ID: 604691

2013 1982 mme sic 1982 2013 sic mme warming exp1 sst exp2 era djf int cooling impact t2m trend

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Slide1

Fumiaki Ogawa

1,2

, Yongqi Gao2,3, Noel Keenlyside1,2, Torben Koenigk4, Vladimir Semenov5, Lingling Suo2,3, Shuting Yang6, Tao Wang71Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway. 2Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway. 3Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing research Center, Norway. 4Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden. 5Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany. 6Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark. 7Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China.

Impact of SIC/SST for multi-decadal climatic trends;

Results from coordinated AGCM experimentsSlide2

EXP1 – daily SIC & SST as observed

NOAA daily data (1982-2013)

Six AGCMs20 member ensembles for each modelEXP2 – SIC is same but SST is daily climatology Slide3

Simulated 2m Temperature

trend [K/10yr

]SONEXP1(MME)1982-2013EXP2 (MME)1982-2013DJFERA-

Int

1982-2013

Shaded for

95% confidence.

Consistent among AGCMs

ATL

PAC

EURASIA

G

-Warming is local & similar (

W

W

W

W

W

W

d

isagrees among reanalysis

[

Lindsay et al. 2015]

)

Similar

-Polar warming pattern is due to SIC (EXP1–EXP2=SST impact)Slide4

DJF

EXP1(MME)

1982-2013EXP2 (MME)1982-2013ERA-Int1982-2013On the wintertime warming in GREENLAND (T2m)

•GREENLAND warming is

due to

SIC.

•Tropical variability of SST (Ding et al. 2014) is not required.Slide5

DJF

•Warming in north-east U.S. is simulated as observed: SIC impact

EXP1(MME)1982-2013EXP2 (MME)1982-2013ERA-Int1982-2013

On the wintertime warming in north-east U.S (T2m)Slide6

On the wintertime cooling trend in Siberia (T2m)

•Siberian cooling is not simulated in EXP1/2

EXP1(MME)1982-2013EXP2 (MME)1982-2013ERA-Int

1982-2013Slide7

DJF

• Observed Siberian cooling is nothing to do with SST/SIC change.

DJFSLP

Absence of SLP trend;

s

iberian

cooling disappears.

(

McCusker

et al. 2016

)

EXP1(MME)

1982-2013

EXP2 (MME)

1982-2013

ERA-

Int

1982-2013

On the wintertime cooling trend in Siberia (T2m)Slide8

EXP1(MME)

1982-2013

EXP2 (MME)1982-2013DJFT2mERA-Int1982-2013DJFLHF

Correspondence to upward LHF

trends

[W/m2/

10yr

]

BK

BK

BK

•SIC impacts B-K

and north-eastern U.S.

warmings

through LHF.

•Note: GREENLAND warming is not due to LHF.Slide9

EXP1(MME)

1982-2013

EXP2 (MME)1982-2013DJFT2mERA-Int1982-2013DJFLR

Trend of upward net long-wave radiation at the surface

BK

BK

BK

Main cause of unrealistic

c

ooling is mainly by jump of NOAA-SIC in the region (2005)

•SIC impacts warming in B-K regions also through LR.Slide10

JF

SO

NDObserved surface warming in JF is local: N-E.U.S., B.K., GREENLAND: reproduced in EXP1/2. AA is less clear above even in reanalysis. Model shows little contribution of SST/SIC.

ERA-I warming lat.

almost coincides to EXP1/2.

Zonal mean Temperature trends

“Arctic amplification (AA)”

EXP1(MME)

1982-2013

EXP2 (MME)

1982-2013

ERA-

Int

1982-2013

•Simulated warming is centered in SIC changing latitudes.

SIC impact is limited in

l

ower troposphere

(Screen et al. 2012)Slide11

Summary: Impact of SIC/SIC for the observed trends

Autumn and early winter:

•AA is influenced by SIC, but limited near the surface. Arctic Amplification:Impact of SST is dominant above. (supporting Screen et al. 2012) •Seems like internal variablity of atmosphere, nothing to do with SST/SIC. •SIC seems relevant for spatial distribution of land surface temperature trend.

Late winter: AA itself become less obvious.

-Surface AA is rather localized: still explained by SIC impact

-Warming above is not clear: little contribution by SST/SIC

Thermodynamics for the warming trends is need to be addressed more in detail...

Siberian cooling in winter:

- supporting (

McCusker

et al. 2016)

: Tropical SST change (Ding et al. 2014) seems not required.

GREENICE COORDINATED experiments have made implications for previous findings: