2016 Water Forum Hotel Tucson City Center Ken Seasholes Manager Resource Planning amp Analysis October 27 2016 Water Use in the Tucson Region Source ADWR Tucson AMA Fourth Management Plan ID: 549132
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Slide1
Central Arizona Project
2016 Water ForumHotel Tucson City Center
Ken Seasholes
Manager, Resource Planning & Analysis
October 27, 2016Slide2
Water Use in the Tucson Region
Source: ADWR, “Tucson AMA Fourth Management Plan”Groundwater
CAP WaterSlide3
Lake Mead
37%
Full
(
9.6
MAF)
1,075’
Lake Mead & Powell Status
*
* As of 9/27/16
Lake Powell
53%
Full
(
12.8
MAF)
3,611’Slide4
Equalization
9.0 Release
& Conservation
Structural Deficit
Historic Levels, with July 2016 to July 2018 Projection
Lake Mead ElevationSlide5
Equalization
9.0 Release
& Conservation
Structural Deficit
Historic Levels, with July 2016 to July 2018 Projection
Lake Mead Elevation
4.3’
above
trigger
0.3’
below
triggerSlide6
The Problem
The Colorado River system is in a fragile state due to drought and the “structural deficit”Lake Mead is in critical declineThere is uncertainty about actions by the Secretary of Interior if Lake Mead falls below 1025’CAP’s junior priority concentrates risk Slide7
The Risk
There is a risk that Arizona, and CAP in particular, will be required to take catastrophically deep reductions, with associated adverse impacts on the society, environment and economy of Arizona.Slide8
Shortage Management
Lake Mead Protection - Interstate plan to leave 740 KAF in Lake Mead by end of 2017 - CAP’s share is 345 KAF – will be accomplished by end of 2016
Innovative
Conservation
- Interstate funding to conserve >75 KAF in the Colorado River
- Conservation research grant program
Augmentation
- Weather
modification projects in the Upper Basin
- Local
and binational desalination
Storage and Recovery
- 3.4 MAF of underground storage by Arizona Water Banking
AuthoritySlide9
2 Programs:
Lower Basin Pilot Drought Response Actions MOUPilot System Conservation Agreement
LB MOU
2014 - 2017:
CAP = 345 KAF
MWD = 300 KAF
USBR = 50 KAF
SNWA = 45 KAF
+9’
PSCA
2015 - 2017:
Total funding = $18.5 M
+1’
Lake Mead
ProtectionSlide10
Lower Basin shortages are shared based on 2007 Guidelines
Mexico separately agreed to reductions at the same elevationsLake Mead Elevation
Shortage Reductions
Arizona
Nevada
California
Mexico
1075’
320,000 AF
13,000
AF
0 AF
50,000 AF
1050’
400,
000 AF
17,000 AF
0 AF
70,000 AF
1025’
480,000 AF
20,000 AF
0 AF
125,000 AF
Shortage
SharingSlide11
Current Shortage Sharing
11
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Lake Mead Elevation
Shortage Reductions
(x 1,000 AF)
Slide12
50th
25th
10
th
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
* i.e., percent of model results, in each year, falling at or below
the indicated elevation, based on “Stress Test” Hydrology.
Lake Mead Elevation Percentiles
*
Projection w/Current
SharingSlide13
The Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan is an “insurance policy”
Provides more certainty and greater protection of Colorado River suppliesThe process is led by the Bureau of Reclamation and the Lower Basin States Builds on the initial progress in the pilot projectsAdditional reductions to “bend the curve” in the projected decline of Lake MeadEfforts with the Upper Basin and Mexico are also underwayDrought ContingencySlide14
Current Shortage Sharing
14
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Lake Mead Elevation
Shortage Reductions
(x 1,000 AF)
Slide15
|
<----- 200 ---->|
|
<-------
250
------>|
|
<---------
30
0
--------->|
|
<-----------
35
0
------------>|
|
<-----------
35
0
------------>|
Lake Mead Elevation
Shortage Reductions
(x 1,000 AF)
Drought Contingency PlanSlide16
|
<----- 200 ---->|
|
<-------
250
------>|
|
<---------
30
0
--------->|
|
<-----------
35
0
------------>|
|
<-----------
35
0
------------>|
Lake Mead Elevation
Shortage Reductions
(x 1,000 AF)
Proposed
Current
Drought Contingency
PlanSlide17
Projection w/Drought Contingency
Projection w/Current Sharing
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Lake Mead Elevation Percentiles
*
* i.e., percent of model results, in each year, falling at or below
the indicated elevation, based on “Stress Test” Hydrology.
50th
25th
10
thSlide18
Projection w/Drought Contingency
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Lake Mead Elevation Percentiles
*
* i.e., percent of model results, in each year, falling at or below
the indicated elevation, based on “Stress Test” Hydrology.
50th
25th
10
th
The additional reductions and conservation efforts are effective in reducing risk
However, the impacts to CAP users, both positive and negative, vary by time, depth of shortage and CAP priority poolSlide19
CAP Priority Pools
Long-Term
Contracts
Excess
Cities
Tribes
AgSlide20
CAP Priority Pools
Firmed by AWBA
Firmed by USBRSlide21
CAP Priority Pools
192,000
512,000
640,000
720,000
LBDCP
ReductionsSlide22
Drought Contingency Plan
Reduces the risk of critical declines in Lake MeadProvides new certainty regarding the Secretary of the Interior’s actions Shared reductions by Arizona, California, and Nevada, plus conservation by the U.S.Additional protection for CAP M&I and Indian priority users, but earlier reductions to users of Other Excess, Ag Pool and NIA-priority waterSlide23
Protect Lake Mead
CAP has initiated an extensive public outreach campaignResources are available at: ProtectLakeMead.com23Slide24Slide25
25
Questions