Uncertainty and international action in contemporary cameroon - PDF document

CurrentAnthropologyVolume,Number,JunebyTheWenner-GrenFoundationforAnthropologicalResearch.Allrightsreserved0011-3204/2005/4603-0001$10.00 WhentheFuture UncertaintyandIntentionalActioninContemporary byJenniferJohnson-Hanks YoungBetiwomeninCameroonregularlyassertthatbecausetheyareuncertainaboutwhatthefuturewillbring,theycannot currentanthropologyVolume,Number,Juneagainstthoseofyearsofdemographicsurveys.realitywasverydifferentindeed.Whatkindsofreproductivefuturesdoyoung,educatedCameroonianwomenhopefor?Howdotheytrytobringaboutthosepotentialfutures?HowaretheseintentionsandactionsinßectedbytheuncertaintyofeverydaylifeincontemporaryCameroon?Byaddressingtheseempir-icalquestions,Ihopetocontributetoageneralunder-standingofuncertaintyandtherelationshipbetweenin-tention,action,andoutcomeasethnographicobjects.AtleastsinceBrentano,actionhasbeencommonlytheo-rizedasthefulÞllmentofapriorintention;theassump-tionsofthefamily-planningcommunityarethuswellgroundedinWesternphilosophyandsocialthought.ButuncertaintiesÑboththeprobabilisticuncertaintyofeventsintheworldandthesubjectÕsexperienceorpos-tureofuncertaintyÑthreatentodissolvethelinkbe-tweenintentionanditsfulÞllment.MyinterlocutorsÕexperiencesofuncertaintyandintentionalactionintheirreproductivelivescontraststarklywiththeapproachestothesetopicsfromearlyprobabilitytheory,phenome-nology,andthephilosophyofmind.Throughthejux-tapositionofethnographicandstatisticalevidencewithsocialtheoryandphilosophy,IseektoviewthemÒinthepalelightthateachupontheotherthrowsÓ(StevensLifeincontemporaryCameroonisextremelyuncer-tain,bothinthespeciÞcsensethatdeathoftencomesearlyandunexpectedlyandalsomoregenerally:feweventsineverydayexperiencearepredictableorconsis-tent.Frombusestopaycheckstoroadblockstoprices,commonthingseludestandardization.Lifewasalmostassuredlyalsoveryuncertainbeforethetwo-decades-oldeconomiccrisis,buttodaypeopleinvokelacriseasanexplanationandexcusefortheambiguityandinsecuritythattheyexperience.Whiletheintensityofdailyun-certaintyincontemporaryCameroondrawsthelimitsofaclassicintentionalmodelofactionintosharprelief,themodelisalsoinsufÞcienttoaccountforsocialactionintherelativelycertain,afßuentWest,ifinmorenu-ancedandconcealedways.Socialactioneverywherecombinesintentionalstrategyandjudiciousopportun-ism;onlytherelativeproportionschangewithtimeandcontext.Thisisnot,therefore,astoryofdifference,con-trastingtheformsofsocialactionthatemergeunderuncertaintywithrational,strategicactionNorisitanexplicitdiscussionofgenderedactionortherelationshipbetweengenderandcertainty,althoughmyexamplesallconcernwomen.Rather,itisatheoreticalanalysisofuncertaintyandintentionalaction,usinganAlthoughtheassumptionthatdemographicactionisintentionalwithintheframeofpost-Weberiantheoriesremainsstrong,agrow-ingcorpusofworkbothwithinandbeyonddemographyhassig-niÞcantlyreÞnedunderstandingsofthesourcesandmodalitiesofthoseintentions.PerhapsmostinßuentialhasbeentheworkofSusanWatkinsandhercollaborators,whohavearguedthatsocialnetworksplayakeyroleinshapingwomenÕshopes,goals,andpracticesregardingchildbearing(Kohler,Behrman,etal.,Ru-tenbergandWatkins,Valente,Watkins,etal.,WatkinsethnographiccaseandassociateddemographicdataasIntentionalActionfromPhenomenologytothePhilosophyofMindIfthefamily-planningliteraturegenerallyassumesthatwomenengageinreproductiveaction(e.g.,usingcon-traception)inordertofulÞlltheirpriorreproductivein-tentions(e.g.,limitingfamilysize),itisnotanassump-tioncutfromwholecloth.Tothecontrary,asubstantialWesternintellectualtraditionÑspanningeconomics,po-liticaltheory,phenomenology,andphilosophyofmindÑhasanalyzedactionasbehaviorthatfulÞllsapriorin-DeÞningÒaction,Óincontrasttomerebehavior,asorientedtowardthefulÞllmentofintentionmakesactionbothcognitiveandreßexiveandthusnecessarilytheactivityofparticularkindsofsubjectsandamenabletoparticularmodesofanalysis.ThesemodesofanalysisproveinadequatefortheanalysisofCameroonianwomenÕsreproductivepractices;tounderstandhowandwhy,itisnecessarytoaddressthetheoriesofintentionalactioninsomedetail.Iwillherefocusonthephenom-enologyofSchutzandthephilosophyofmindofSearle,arguingthattheirtheoriesoftherelationshipbetweenintentionandactionarelargelyconsonant.Otherschol-arshavealsotreatedactionasthefulÞllmentofinten-tion,Weberbeingonlythemostobvious,andmuchofmicroeconomics,statisticaldemography,andquantita-tivesociologyreliesontheassumptionsofrational-choicetheory,aspeciÞcandhighlyformalizedversionofthetheoriesofintentionalaction.IfocusonSearleandSchutzbecausetheyofferrichandnuancedexamplesofthecategoryfertileenoughthateventheirlimitationsareanalyticallyuseful.ForSearle,intendingtodosomethingisaspecialcaseofintentionality,thegeneralclassofcognitivestatesthatsomething,suchaswishing,believing,anddetesting.Amongthese,ÒintendingtoÓhastwospecialproperties:Þrst,theconditionsofsatisfactionofinten-tionsÑactionsÑareuniquelytiedtotheintentionsthemselves.Thus,thestateofaffairsthatIhopeformayexistindependentofmyhopes,butÒtherearenoactionswithoutcorrespondingintentionsÓ().Second,Inadditiontothecitationsbelow,seeBaldwinandBaird(Dennett(),McKaughan(),MonteÞoreandNoble(Smith(WeberÕsconceptofthe(complexofmean-ing)andgemeinterSinn(subjectivemeaning)werecentraltoSchutzÕsformulationofintentionalaction,andthetwowritersappeartoconcuronthekeypointsformypurposeshere.IndeÞningaction,Weberwrites:ÒExplanationrequiresagraspofthecomplexofmeaningsinwhichanactualcourseofunderstandableactionthusinterpretedbelongs....Thesubjectivemeaningoftheaction,includingthatalsooftherelevantmeaningcomplexes,willbecalledtheintendedmeaningÓ().ThefactthatWeberincludessituationsinwhichtheactorisnotconsciouslyawareofhisin-tendedmeaningdoesnotseemtometoposeaproblem;althoughconsciousnessandintentionalityoverlap,neitherisaprerequisitefortheother. WhentheFutureDecidesthefulÞllmentofintentionrestsbothontheoutcomeandontheprocessthroughwhichitisachieved:myintentiontovisitmyailingauntisnotachievedifmycarhappenstostalloutsideherhouseandIgoinsidetowaitforthetowtruck.Bycontrast,mybeliefthatshewillbehomecanbefulÞlledregardlessofhowshecametobethere(pp.).ActionsarethereforenotmerelythefulÞllmentofintentionsbutalsoentailthem;with-outsomeintentiontherecanbenoaction.Respondingtothepotentialcriticismthatsomebe-haviorsthatintuitivelyseemtobeactionÑsuchasrun-ningsobbingfromtheroomÑareperformedsuddenlyandwithoutforethought,Searledistinguishesbetweenpriorintentionsandintentionsinaction.Intentionsinactionarepartoftheaction,inseparablefromit,andthusnecessarilypresenteveniftheactorisunawareofthem.Searle()writes:Theactionofmyraisingmyarmconsistsoftwocomponents,theintentionsinactionandthemove-mentofmyarm.TakeawaytheÞrstandyoudonÕthaveactionbutonlyamovement,takeawaythesecondandyoudonÕthavesuccess,butonlyafailedeffort.Therearenoactions,notevenunintentionalactions,withoutintentions,becauseeveryactionhasanintentioninactionasoneofitscomponents.Inotherwords,anybehaviorthatisassociatedwithsomekindofÒtryingtodosomething,Ónomatterhowbanal,isÒaction,Óbecausethethingtriedforconstitutesanintentioninaction.Therelevantdistinctionisnotbe-tweenintentionalandunintentionalactionbutbetweenpriorintentionsandintentionsinaction.Thismovere-cuperatesmyrunningsobbingfromtheroom,killingmyrosebushbypruningittoovigorously,andshiftinggearsasImoveontothefreewayasdeÞnitionallyintentionalactionsÑevenifnotdoneÒonpurposeÓÑbecauseeachisinvestedwithintentionsinaction(Òthatmyfeetmove,ÓÒthatIcutthisbranch,Óetc.).Whilephilosoph-icallyconsistent,ithasinconvenientconsequencesforthesocialscientist.Thegenerality,narrowness,andlackofstructureofintentionsinactionseemstoprecludetheirsocialanalysis.Intentionsinaction,asexplainedbySearle,arelittlemorethanthecognitiverepresen-tationofthephysicalactionitself:theintentioninactionassociatedwitharm-raisingisÒthatmyarmgoup.ÓAssuch,theyseemtohavelittlerelevancetoasocialac-countofvoting,volunteering,waving,oranyotherac-tivityinwhicharmsmightberaised.Thesebroader,socialaimsinhere,rather,inwhatSearlecallsÒpriorintentions,Óintentionsthatcomebeforetheactionbothintimeandincausalsequence.Thepriorintentionisthemotivationoftheaction,theaiminview,thein-order-tomotive.SearleÕspriorintentionscorrespondcloselytotheideaofintentionembeddedindemographicSearleÕspositiononintentionalityhasbeenamplydebatedinreferencetocausaltheoriesofaction,aswellasinthephilosophyofmind(see,forexample,Costa,Jacquette,McCulloch,Mele,Vermazen,WalkersurveysandintheoriesofrationalchoiceandalsointhephenomenologyofSchutz.InhisintegrationofWeberÕstheoryofsocialactionwithHusserlÕsphenomenology,SchutzarguesthatthegoalÑandthereforethemeaningÑofanactionisitspro-jectedact.ThismodeloftheprojectedactresemblesSearleÕsnotionofthepriorintentioninatleasttwoways:theactionfulÞllstheintentionorprojectedact,andthefulÞllmentisfundamentallyconcernednotonlywithoutcomebutwithprocess.ForSchutz,actionmaybemeaningfulbecausetheactorremoveshimselffromtheßowofdurationtoreßectuponit,prototypicallyinmemorybutalsoinprojectingthefuture.HearguesthatactionisthefulÞllmentofapriorintentioninthespe-ciÞcsensethatintendedactsareenvisionedascom-pleted,suchthattheircompletionintheworldbringsaboutanalignmentbetweenthementalrepresentationandtheexternalstateofaffairs(Theactorprojectshisactionasifitwerealreadyoveranddonewithandlyinginthepast.Itisafull-blown,actualizedevent,whichtheactorpicturesandassignstoitsplaceintheorderofexperiencesgiventohimatthemomentofprojection.Strangelyenough,therefore,becauseitispicturedascom-pleted,theplannedactbearsthetemporalcharacterofpastness.Ofcourse,oncetheactionbegins,thegoaliswishedforandprotended....Itisthoughtofinthefutureperfecttense.SchutzexplicitlyarguesherethattheformulationofaÒfutureperfectact,Óanexplicit,cognitiverepresentationofanintendedoutcome,isapreconditionforaction.Atthesametime,hemakespresentmeaningdependentonthefutureÕsresemblancetothepast,ifnotonthefutureÕspotentialpastnessitself.Iwillarguelaterthatexperi-entialuncertaintydiffersfromstatisticaluncertaintyparticularlyinitsrelationtotimeandtotherelationshipbetweendifferenttemporalformsandthatSchutzÕstermsherehelptoformulatethisbasicdifference.FornowIwantonlytoemphasizethenecessarilytemporalcharacterofintention,whichrunsthroughbothSchutzÕsandSearleÕsinterpretations.Intentionprecedesactionasmemoryfollowsexperience(SearleThepriorintentiontoraisemyarmistotheactionofraisingmyarmasthememoryofseeingaßoweristoseeingaßower;orrather,theformalrelationsbetweenthememory,thevisualexperienceoftheßower,andtheßowerarethemirrorimageoftheformalrelationsbetweenthepriorintention,thein-tentioninactionandthebodilymovement.Thus,intentionandmemoryarebothintentionalstatesthatareabouttheconjunctionofaphysicalphenomenon(athing,aphysicalmovement)andacognitiveone(thevisualexperience,theintentioninaction),butthetem-poralsequenceandthemodeoffulÞllmentareinverse.SearlediscussesthisintermsoftheÒdirectionofÞt.ÓThedi-rectionofÞtismind-to-worldinthecasesofbeliefandperception,whereabreakdownwouldbedescribedasanerroronthepartof currentanthropologyVolume,Number,JuneWhereasforSearlethepriorintentionistotheactionasthememoryistotheperception,forSchutztheintentionentailsanexperiencethatresemblesmemorydirectly:theactisseeninthemindÕseyeasafuturememory.ThisinterpretationisechoedinMiyazakiÕs()anal-ysisofhopeinFiji.Hopeistheholdingoutofapromiseforafutureclosure,whatSchutzwouldcallaÒpro-tendedÓstateofaffairsthat,whenactualized,willini-tiateanewroundoffutureperfects,anewroundofAnalysesthattreatactionasthefulÞllmentofaspe-ciÞcintentionestablishasystematicrelationshipbe-tweenintentionalprojectsandbehaviorsandtherebyfa-cilitatethemeaningfulinterpretationofthosebehaviors.Likeanymodel,however,thistheoryofintentionalac-tionmustforeclosetheanalysisofsomesituationsthebettertoaddressothers.ViewingactionasthefulÞll-mentofapriorintentioncommitsuseithertoexcludingbehaviorthatisnotorientedtoaclearintentionalman-ifoldfromthecategoryÒactionÓor,followingSearle,topositingthateveryactionhasanÒintentioninactionÓthatcomesintoexistenceatthesamemomentasthebehavior,whetherornotitcanbearticulatedatanypoint.TheÞrstmoveoffersatechnicaldeÞnitionofÒac-tionÓ;thesecondoffersatechnicaldeÞnitionofÒinten-tion.ÓBoth,itseemstome,begtheessentialethno-graphicquestionofhowtothinkaboutbehaviorthatisclearlymeaningfulbutisnotstrategicallyselectedinadvanceorbehaviorthatemergesthroughthecourseofengagementandmovestheengagementforwardbutwithoutthechoreographyofaspeciÞcimaginedfuture.Howcanweanalyzeconscious,social,andmeaningfulbehaviorthatisorientedneithertothefulÞllmentofapriorintentionnortotheactualizationofanactpro-jectedinthefutureperfecttense?Forsuchaquestion,theethnographyofcontemporarysouthernCameroonisinstructivefortworeasons.First,theconditionsoflifeÑeconomic,political,andsocialÑarehighlyuncertain,makingtheprojectionoffutureper-fectsparticularlytenuous.Whileliveduncertaintiesex-isteverywhere,incontemporaryCameroontheyaremorevisible,moreethnographicallyinevitablethanintheUnitedStatesorEurope.Second,thereissubstantiallocalambivalenceaboutthelegitimacy,viability,andevenmoralityofintentionalactionintheformsthatseemsointuitiveandself-evidenttomanyscholarsintheafßuentWest.Intheirdescriptionsoftheirownac-tionÑpast,present,andfutureÑsouthernCamerooniansgenerallyrejectamodelofpriorintentionsorprotendedfutureperfects,insteaddescribingtheiractionasgrasp-ingatwhateverisavailableinthepresent.UncertaintyintheTimeofCrisisAccordingtomanysouthernCameroonians,thepossi-bilityofenvisioningandseekingtoattainspeciÞcfu-thesubject.Inthecaseofintention,thedirectionofÞtisworld-to-mind,wherebreakdownsaredescribedasfailurestofulÞllamentalrepresentation(andpassim). turesisathingofthepast,anopportunitythatwastakenfromthembytheeconomiccrisisofthepasttwodec-ades.AsFergusonarguesforthecaseofZambianmineworkers,manyofmyinterlocutorshaveexperiencedÒnotsimplyasalackbutasalossÓ().InthevalueofCameroonianexportsontheworldmarketfellbynearlyhalf,settinginmotionlacriseperiodofeconomichardship,increasedinterethniccon-ßict,andageneralizedstateofdistrust,aÒroutinizedstateofcrisisÓ(MbembeandRoitman).Thevola-tilityineconomicandsociallifebroughtaboutbyextendsalmosteverywhere,fromthemostmun-danetothemostintimatedomain:transportisunreliableandpettycreditimpossibletoobtain,andevenloversaredistrustfulofoneanotherÕsmotives.Tworelatedfactorsareatworkhere.First,lifeincon-temporaryCameroonisobjectivelyunpredictable.Sec-ond,ÒcrisisÓhasbecomeavailableasatropethatservestolegitimateandreinforceboththeinterpretationoftheworldasuncertainandbehaviorthatcontributestothatuncertainty.AlthoughmostCamerooniansperceivetheirpresentuncertaintyasresultingfromtheeconomicandsocialcrisis,thereisnoevidencethatlifepriortolacrisewasobjectivelymorecertain.Manyscholarshavedem-onstratedtheßuidityandcomplexityofAfricansociallifeinthepast(e.g.,Berry),andCameroonisnoex-ception(seeLaburthe-Tolra).Yet,byascribingcontemporaryuncertaintytothecrisis,Cameroonianshaveelevatedthecrisistoaninevitableforcethatac-countsforincompetence,graft,sexualinÞdelity,schoolfailure,andevenwitchcraft.ThewidespreadsensethatdisadvantageandunpredictabilitypermeatenotonlytheeconomybutalsosocialandpersonalrelationshipsÑwhatmyinformantscalllacrisemoraleÑreducesthesocialpressureinfavoroftransparentandpredictableaction.Afterall,ifcorruptionandwitchcraftareinevitableandÒeveryoneÓengagesinthem,whyresist?AsaresultofthecommonviewthatCameroonisincrisis,thevaluesassignedtospeciÞcsocialactionsareremarkablyßuid,withsometimesdevastatingconsequences.OneexampleisthecaseofMadameEssele,awomaninhermid-slivinginasmalltownaboutanhourfromthecapitalcity.InearlyMadameEsseleÕsmarriagehadbecomedifÞcult,asherhusbandhadtakenamuchyoungersecondwife,andtherewasconstantconßictinthecompoundovermoney.Herdaughter,bycontrast,wasdoingwell:workingasaschoolteacherinYaoundeandlivingwithherpromisingandhandsomeboyfriendthere.MadameEsselewenttovisitthem,andtocele-bratehercomingthedaughterandherboyfriendslaugh-teredagoat.Backinthetown,talesofthegoatcirculatedandescalated.Thegoatbecametwogoats,thenaban-quet,andthenafeast.MadameEsseleÕsco-wifeclaimedthatthegoatwasabridewealthpaymentforthedaughterandthatitshouldthereforehavebeengiventotheirhusband.MadameEssele,sheasserted,hadeaten(thewealththatwasbyrightduetoherhusband.EatingoutofplaceimmediatelyinvokeswitchcraftinsouthernCameroon.An,acertainkindofdangerousspiritthatresidesinthebelliesofsomepeople,inducesits WhentheFutureDecideshosttoeat()thewealthofhisneighbors,thehealthoftheirchildren,orevenhisownrelatives.Immoderateeatingisakintowitchcraftandawomandisrespectfulofherhusbandalikelywitch.Thus,byclaimingthatMadameEsselehadconsumedabridewealthgoat,theco-wifewasaccusingherofwitchcraft.Thosefamiliarwiththiscasedisagreeaboutwhathap-penednext.SomepeoplesaythatMadameEsseleÕshus-bandpaidtohaveherwitchedfordisrespectinghim.Othersclaimthatitwastheco-wifeherselfwhosewastoblame.StillothersassertthatitwasMadameEsseleÕsownguiltyconsciencethatbroughtaboutherdemise.Allofmyinformantsagreed,however,thatMa-dameEsselefellillonherwayhomefromYaounde«anddiedofsupernaturallyinducedfeverafewdayslater.Herdaughterremainedinthecity,afraidtoreturntothevillageevenforthefuneral.Thiscase,inwhichagoatbecomesaplausiblebasisforawitchcraftmurder,pointstothedramaticinstabil-ityoflifeincontemporaryAfricaandservesasagoodmetaphorforthephenomenologicalexperienceofApparentlysmallactionsmayhavemonumentalconsequences;neitherthescalenorthedirectionoftheiroutcomescanbepredictedinadvance.Bernstein(warnsagainsthistoricalanalysesthattreatcontingentoutcomesasiftheyhadbeeninevitableorobviousfromthebeginning.So,too,inethnography:althoughIcanexplainthewitchcraftaccusationsinreferencetoasetoflocallogics,Icouldnothavepredictedtheoutcomebeforeitoccurred.NorcouldanyofmyCameroonianinterlocutors,despitethefactthattheyallconsideredthestoryplausibleafterthefact.MostCamerooniansshareanacuteawarenessoftheunpredictable:uncer-taintypermeateseveryplan,andactionisrarelyfor-mulatedasthefulÞllmentofapriorintention.Whatiscommonisapostureofopennesstopossibility,evocativeoftheÒsubjunctivemoodÓdescribedbyWagner-PaciÞciIncontrasttothearmedstandoffsthatconstituteWag-ner-PaciÞciÕsobject,lifeinaroutinizedstateofcrisisdemandsnotasubjunctive(temporary,setapartfromnormallife,partiallyvolitional)butsomethingclosertoasubjunctive,asystemofÒdurable,transposabledispositions,structuredstructurespredis-posedtofunctionasstructuringstructures...asprin-cipleswhichgenerateandorganizepracticesandrepre-sentationsÓ(Bourdieu).Theextremeuncertaintyofeverydaylifedoesnotmakepeopleactrecklesslyorwithoutstructurebutprestructurestheirexpectationsandreactionsinaparticularway.Abornofre-peatedexperienceofuncertaintyandsuddenchangepre-disposestheactortodiscountchoiceandrefrainfromcommittinghimselftospeciÞcimaginedfutures,futuresthatareÑinanycaseÑunlikelytobeattained.ThehesitationtocommittospeciÞcfuturesthatchar-Witchcraftishighlysystematic,eventhepolaroppositeofÒblindchanceÓ;nonetheless,widespreadwitchcraftincreasesuncertaintybecauseitincreasestherangeofpossibleoutcomesofagivenactionandmayÑashereÑevenreversetheirvalence.acterizesthesubjectivemoodshouldnotbeconfusedwithconcernabouttheevileyeorevensimplemodesty,bothofwhicharealsoatplayinsouthernCameroonbutindifferentspheres.Thenarrativesthatfollowmayap-peartoindicateanavoidanceofÞrmclaimsaboutthefutureforfearofbadluckorevenwitchcraft(cf.Castle).IassumedasmuchatthebeginningofmyÞeld-work.However,nearlytheoppositeappliesinavarietyofcircumstancesinsouthernCameroon.Peoplesome-timesreferto,address,andeventreatothersasifwhat-evertheyarepreparingforhadalreadybeenactualized.Engagedwomenarecalledbytheirfuturemarriednames,schoolchildrenbytheirfuturetitles.Asanun-marriedgraduatestudentIwasregularlycalledÒMadameledocteur,ÓandeventhejuniorseminarianswerecalledÒtheparishpriestsÓ(lesAbbe).ThisisperhapsthemostextremeexampleofSchutzÕsfutureperfect;notonlyaregoalswishedforandprotendedbuttheyaresociallytakenasalreadyinplay:Touscequidoitnirestde´ja.Thedifferencebetweentheseminariansandme,ontheonehand,andtheyoungwomenwhosestoriesIrecountbelow,ontheother,waswhetherthetrajectoryhadbeenbegun.Iwasengagedtobemarriedandworkingonmydegree,andtheseminarianshadbeenacceptedandweredoingtheirstudies:wewereonadiscerniblepathtowardsomething.Butbeforethetrajectoryisknown,thesituationisquitedifferent.Whenmyinter-locutorsclaimthattheycannotknowthefutureandthereforemakenoplansregardingit,wecannotdisregardtheirrefusalasfalsemodestyorsuperstition.Wemustrathertakeseriouslythechallengethattheyareposingtointentionalactionasitiscommonlyunderstood.Thatsaid,theirrefusalofrationalchoicedoesnotnecessarilymeanthattheyfailtoactwithintentionofanykind.Wemusttaketheirwordsseriouslybutnotliterally.Inthefollowingquotes,high-school-educatedwomentalkabouttheirplansforthefuture.Thesewomenrep-resentalocalelite:whilenearlyhalfthewomeninrecentcohortsinsouthernCameroonhavestartedhighschool,fewerthanoneinsixhavecompletedit.CompletinghighschoolrequirestheabilitybothtomobilizeÞnancialre-sourcesfromkinandtolearnunderchallengingcircum-stances,suchaswithouttextbooks.TheÞrstoftheseappearstobemuchharderforgirlsthanforboys.Thus,womenattendingthelastgradeofhighschoolhavebeenunusuallysuccessfulandtheirmodesofactioneffective.Thatthesemodesappearfarfromintentionalactionsug-geststhatmodelsofsuchactionareinadequate.Myin-terlocutorsregularlyexplainedthattheywerenotplan-ningtofollowanyspeciÞcpathoftrainingortoseekoutanyspeciÞcemploymentbutwouldinsteadtakewhatcametothem.Forexample:Nowtimeshavechanged.Itisnolongerlikebefore.Onecannolongerlikesomething.Noweverythingthatpresentsitself,youareobligedtoattachyourselftoit,tomakedowith[it].Nowyoucannolongersay,ÒIwanttodothisthing,becausethatotherthingdoesnotinterest currentanthropologyVolume,Number,Juneme.ÓNo.Everythingthatpresentsitself,onemakesdo.Thatmeans[youwoulddo]anyoldjob?Anyoldjob.Ifyoufeelthatyouarecapa-ble,youdoit.Itisnolongerlikebefore.Youcannolongerchoose.Theessential[thing]isthatonecansurvive.Youdowhatevercomestokeepyourlifeinbalance.ThatÕsall.Butbefore,youcouldchoose?Onechose.ItÕslikewitheating.Thepeo-pledidnoteatwhateverliketheyeatnow.Youcouldnottellmetoeatcocoyamswhentherewereripeplantains,no!Nowthereisnolongeranymeanstochoose.WhenitÕscocoyams,whetheryoulikeitornot,youeatcocoyams.Whereasbeforeonecouldchoose,nownoonechoosesanything.Andsimilarly:Whatdoyouwanttodoafterthetheschooldiploma]?WeÕllsee.PerhapsweÕllseeaftertheYoudonÕthavesomegeneralideas?Idonotyethaveapreciseidea,yousee.Iamwaiting.IfIsucceed,iftheexamscomeoutinsuccess,thentomorrowIwilltellyouwhatÕsButinordertodecidetomorrow,donÕtyouhavetohavesomeideastoday?Yourvocationisnotlikethat.ItcomesfromtheHolySpirit.Yes,yes,Iunderstandthat,butdonÕtyoulikeToday,isitnecessarytolikesomething?Whateverpresentsitselfinfrontofyou,youdo.InadditiontomyblinddeterminationtoelicitananswerintheformofaWeberianproject,resultinginsomeex-tremelyinelegantinterviews,thesepassagesshowthatmyinformantsdescribethefuturenotasasetofchoicesandintentionalactionsbutasasequenceofassents:whatevercomesalong,onemaychoosetoassenttoit.Atleastasdramatically,theyoungwomentalkaboutthislackofchoiceasacharacteristicoflacrise,statingßatlythatinthepastpeoplecouldchoose.Iamlessinterestedintheobjectivetruthofthisdescriptionofthepast(whichIwouldestimateasclosetozero)thaninwhatittellsusabouthowyoungCameroonianwomenthinkoratleasthowtheyelecttopresenttheirthoughtsinaninterview.Byfocusingonthecrisisasthesourceofuncertainty,myinterlocutorsdotwothings.First,theyshort-circuitanyinterpretationofÒWesternratio-nalityÓasopposedtoÒnativesuperstition,Óplacingun-certaintysquarelyasaproductofglobalizationinthepostcolonialperiod(seealsoJohnson-Hanks).Sec-ond,theymaketheirowntacticsofgettingbyandmakingdotheinevitableconsequencesoflifeinthepresent.Iflacrisehasmadeanykindofplanningimpossible,thenanyindividualwomanÕslackofplan-ningcanhardlybeheldagainsther.ManyyoungCameroonianwomenwouldconcurwithGhislaineandAdelethatcareerscannotbeplannedbyÞrstselectingapreferredendandthenÞndingthemostefÞcientmeanstoachieveit.But,contrarytothelocaltheoryofhistorythattracesthisuncertaintytothecurrentcrisis,myanalysissuggeststhatthesewaysofspeakingaboutprofessionaltrajectoriesÑasnotchosen,asun-knowableinadvance,asdeterminedbydivineinterven-tion,andassimilartoindividualfoodpreferencesandÑentailbothchangeandcontinuityfromdepic-tionsofBeticonceptsofvocationfromtheclassicsourcesandapplicabletobothmenandwomen(Guyer,La-burthe-Tolra,Mbala-Owono,TessmanThus,theyoungwomenexplaintheiractioninthecrisisasdistinctlydifferentfromlifeinthepastevenwhentalkingaboutactionsandcircumstancesthatarepreciselywhatpastethnographershavedescribedastypical.Classically,Betipersonhoodwasrepresentedasen-tailingthenotionthateachindividualhadauniquechar-acteranddestiny,theamalgamofvariousinheritancesanddisparatesourcesofinspiration.Childrearingcon-sistedlargelyofobservingtoascertainwhereeachchildÕsfuturemightleadandthenencouragingorfosteringthoseindividualtalents:asortofdivinatorypedagogy.FuturepathswereseeninpartasunfoldingsratherthanasÒchoices.ÓTheunfoldingscouldfail,tobesure;apersoncouldfailtodevelopinbornpotentialortofollowandfosterinheritedgifts.However,itwasnotamatterofchoosingatrajectorysomuchasoneofrecognizingitandassenting.Thus,possibletrajectorieswereknowntoGodinadvance,butwhethertheindividualwouldachievethemremainedcontingent.Thissensethatcer-taincallingsareinevitable,eveniftheirfulÞllmentisnot,remainscentralintheseyoungwomenÕswaysofspeakingabouttheirfutures,atthesametimeastheyfocusontheroleoflacriseeliminatingthepossibilityofchoice.Beforelacrise,onechose.Againandagain,ininterviews,casualconversation,andcolumnsinthenewspaper,Cameroonianwomenemphasizedhowintheirpresentconditionanykindofplanningwasimpossible.NokindsoffuturescouldbeAtleasttwothingsareatplayhere.First,foodpreferencesaretakenveryseriouslyandareacceptedasbeinggroundedinchar-acter,physiology,orlineage.Someindividualsarethoughttobephysicallyincompatiblewithcertainfoods,eitherpermanentlyortemporarily.Second,thechoiceofcocoyamsmakestheassociationwithsexualityallbutexplicit.TheverycommonsayingÒOnedoesnoteatcocoyamseverydayÓmeansthatsexwithasinglepartnerallthetimeisboringandtobeavoidedbyanymanwhopossiblycan(althoughnotbywomen,forwhomcustomarysexualpracticeismorerestrictive).TosaythatnownoonehasanychoicetoeatcocoyamsalsointimatesthatthesystemofsexualdiversityÑwhichhasalwaysrestedonmenÕsabilitiestoofferenticingfoods,clothes,andothergiftstotheirparamoursÑhasalsowanedasaresultofthecrise.Myinterlocutorwasnotexplicitlymakingthislatterclaim,butherchoiceofwordsnonethelessinvitestheThisexhortationtoperceiveandacceptthewillofGodismir-roredinCatholicismaspracticedinsouthernCameroon.InLuke,MaryreceivesthemessagethatshewillbearJesussaying,ÒBeituntomeasisthyword,Óapassageoftenexplicitlycitedbymyinformants. WhentheFutureDecidesenvisioned,noplansmade,nointentionalactionunder-taken:thefuturehadbeenretracted.Uncertaintywasnaturalizedtothepointthatmanypeoplefoundasser-tionsaboutcertainfutureslaughable,absurd.KnowingthatIwasinterestedinyoungwomenÕsmarital,fertility,andprofessionalintentions,villageresidentssometimesaskedmethesesamequestions.HowmanychildrendidIwant?WhatjobwouldIliketodo?WhatwouldIdoifmyhusbandtookasecondwife?Theseexchangesusu-allytookonafamiliarform.IwouldsaythatIwantedtwochildren,andmyinterlocutorwouldaskwhatIwoulddoifIhadÞveinstead.IwouldsaythatIwouldnÕthaveÞve;IwouldstopwhenIhadtwo.Thenmyinter-locutorandanybystanderswouldlaughuproariouslyandtellmethatitwasGodwhogavechildrenandonecouldnotrefusethem.Similarly,ifIsaidthatIwantedtobeaprofessor,IwouldbeaskedwhatIwoulddoifIhadtoworkintheÞeldsinstead.WhenIwouldassertthatitwasimpossiblethatIwouldbeforcedtoworkintheÞeldsintheUnitedStates,myconversationpartnerwouldlaughandremindmethatnoonecouldknowthefutureandanythingwaspossibleinthisworld.Camer-nooniansarehabituatedintoakindofagnosticismaboutthefuture:lifeissouncertainthatplansarealwaysten-uous,partial,morehopethanconviction.Thispostureofopennessappliesaswelltoplansre-gardingchildbearing.QuestionssuchasÒHowmanychildrendoyouplantohave?ÓandÒDoyouwanta(nother)childsoon,later,ornotatall?Óhavebeencen-traltodemographicanalysesoffertilitysincetheiniti-ationoftheWorldFertilitySurveysinthes.TheassociatedandderivedmeasuresÑaverageidealfamilysize,wantedfertility,andtheunmetneedforcontracep-tionÑhavebeenthebasisofinternationalpolicy,pop-ulationprojections,andfundingforfamily-planningpro-grams.Assumingacausallinkbetweenintention,action,andoutcome,internationalaidagencieshavespenthundredsofmillionsofdollarselicitingtherepro-ductiveintentionsofwomeninpoorcountries.BecausemyprojectwastounderstandthesocialpracticesthatunderlayaspeciÞcdemographicrelationship,Iaskedwomensimilarquestionsabouttheirreproductivein-tentions.TheanswerswerealmostuniformlyÒnon-nu-meric,Óasthedemographiceuphemismwouldhaveit(vandeWalle).Forexample,Marie-Clairere-spondedtomyquestionabouthowmanychildrensheintendedtohavebysaying:Thosearethethingsofthefuture.Wecannotknowthem.Becausethereare,youknow,youcanproposetodowhatyoulike,butyoucannotknowifitwillhappen....ThereisÞrstastagewhenoneisigno-rantofcertainthings.Butthenyoubecomeaware,andyousay,ÒButlifeisnotwhatonebelieves!Itisbizarre.Itisambiguous.ÓTherefore,youmustbeMarie-Claireassertsthatitisonlyinthestageofigno-rancethatonebelievesinthepossibilityofachievingwhatoneintends;awarenessandfulladulthoodcomewhenoneunderstandsthatlifeisinfactbizarreandambiguous.Itisbyrejectingthenaõ¬vebeliefinthecausalefÞcacyofintentionsthatonebecomeswise(cf.Wegner).Similarly,astudentwhoplannedeithertobecomeanunorelsetohavechildrenexplainedthatheractionswoulddependinpartonwhetherherparentsneededmorechildren:ÒOneneverknowswhatlifeholdsinstore.Itholdstoomanysurprises.Itcouldhappenthatonemoment[mybrother]justleaves,andourfamilyisnotlargeenough.WeÕllseewhatthefuturedecides.ÓThislastisacommonturnofphrase,usedinterchange-ablywithÒForthat,youneverknowÓandappliedtotopicsfromthepriceofmangoestotheoutcomeofna-tionalelections.Athirdexamplehas,again,thesamestructure:Sometimespeoplesaytothemselves,ÒIwouldliketohavealotofchildrenÓorÒIwouldliketohaveonlyafewchildren.ÓDoyouknowthenumberofchildrenyouwouldliketohave?IcanÕtspeak[aboutthat]becauseIamnotmarried.Ihaveneverhadachild.Butmeneither.Iamnotmarried.Idonothavechildren.ButIalreadyknowthatIwantmaybetwoorthreechildren.You,youcanhavesomeideasaboutchil-drenbecauseyoualreadyhaveaÞance«.Me,IdonothaveaÞance«orhusbandorevenaboyfriend.Iamalone.So,howisitthatIcanthinkaboutchildren?Doesonemakeababyalone?WhenGodsendsmeahusband,thentogetherwewillseethenumberofchildrenwewillbeabletohave.ThatÕshowitis.WhereastheclaimthatreproductiveintentionsaregroundedinspeciÞcmaritalrelationshipswouldbeun-remarkable,thatisnotwhatAnnettesayshere.Rather,sheexplainsthatwhenGodsendsherahusbandtheywillseetogetherthenumbertheywillbeabletohave(ÒquÕonarrivea`faireÓ).EvenmodelsofjointdecisionmakingormutuallyconstructedintentionsareinsufÞ-cient.Annetteisnotsayingthatsheandherhusbandwilldecidehowmanychildrentheywantoncesheismarriedbutratherthatthenumberofchildrenthatthefuturedecidesforthemwillthenbecomeclear.Ratherthanpredictingafuturetimewhentheprototypicin-tentionalactwillbepossible,AnnetteisdisavowingtheverypossibilityofreproductiveactioninanintentionalAtonelevel,thequotesfromAnnetteandtheotherssoundlikeordinaryacknowledgmentsoftheworldofchance.TheeconomicanalystforaventurecapitalÞrm,forexample,wouldlikelymakesimilarlyhumblestate-mentsabouttheuncertaintiesofprediction.However,venturecapitalistscanmanageprobabilisticoutcomesbydiversifyingrisk,whileindividualwomentryingtoplanindividuallivescannot.Going%intochildbear-ingand%intoeducationisnotafeasibleoption.RatherthanproÞtmaximizationinthefaceofanunrulymarket,weshouldthinkhereintermsofÒcontingency currentanthropologyVolume,Number,JuneplansÓthatcanÒsmooththeroughestedgesofriskÓ)andofactioninthesubjunctivemood.ReturningtoSchutz,wecouldsaythattheinabilitytoactwithconsequenceinthecontextoflacrisefromthefactthatnoÒfutureperfectsÓcanbeviablyenvisioned.Inotherwords,thepotentialfuturesentailedinanyhere-nowcanneverbecomeÒfull-blown,actual-izedeventsÓandarethereforenotmeaningfulinthefor-malsenseofmotivatingaction.SchutzarguesthatactionisultimatelypossiblebecausefutureactsareenvisionedasÒcompletedandlyinginthepast,Óbutitisexactlythissynopticillusionofcertaintythatlacrisehasmadeimpossible.Atthelimit,becauseofthecrisispeoplecannolongerdecidewhatcoursesofactiontofollow,bothbecausethesocialendsthattheymighthopetoattainarebeingcontestedandrevisedandbecausetheycannotknowwhichmeanswillresultinthedesiredends.ItisherethatSearleÕsnotionoftheintentioninactionprovesuseful,atleastasapointofdeparture.Whilemyinterlocutorsareexplicitabouttheirwith-drawalfrompriorintentions,fromtheformulationofSchutzianfutureperfects,theynonethelessengageinef-fectiveactioninthemoment,recognizingandseizingopportunitiesastheycome.Thechallengeisnottofor-mulateaplanandimplementitregardlessofwhatcomesbuttoadapttothemoment,tobecalmandsupple,rec-ognizingthedifferencebetweenapromisingandanun-promisingoffer.IcallthisalternativetorationalchoiceÒjudiciousopportunismÓandsuggestthatitiswide-spreadinsocialaction,bothinsub-SaharanAfricaandintherichWest,wheneverthesocialstructuresthatenableandenforcerationalchoiceareabsentorweak.Maintainingoptionsisthecentralaimofactionunderjudiciousopportunism,asmadeexplicitbyMartine,whosethoughtsaboutchildtimingopenedthepaper.Martineexplainedwhyshewouldnotuseanyformofhormonalcontraception,althoughsheandherboyfrienddidnotyetwantchildren.Hormonescanforeclosepos-sibilities,sheexplained,whereaseffectiveactionreliesonchancesÕalwaysbeingkeptopen:ÒThisistheincon-venienceofthosepillsthere.ThisisthereasonthatIamagainstthem.SometimesafterusingthepillitcanmakeyouhavealotofchildrenthatyoudidnÕtevenwant.Itcanalsomakeyounothaveanychildrenatall.So,Ithinkthatyoumustputthatasideandplaytheodds.ÓThismodeofjudiciousopportunismandstanceofopennessisuniqueneithertolifeinthecrisisnortoCameroonians.PadgettandAnsell()makethecasethatitwasnotstrategicrationalchoicebutratherthiskindoffollowingofpromisingleadswhatevertheirsourcethatenabledtheMedicitodominateÞfteenth-centuryFlorence.Onasmallerscale,theexperientialuncertaintyandjudiciousopportunismthatitdemandsariseasoneÞnishesoneÕsdissertationandtriestoimag-inelifebeyondthedefense.WillIÞndajob?WherewillIbeliving?Willmyrelationshipsurvivethemove?ShouldIdoapost-doc?DissertationÞnishingisamo-mentwhenthepotentialfuturesaremaximallyopenandtheactorÕspotentialtoactintentionallytobringaboutsomespeciÞcdesiredfutureisparticularlylimited.ÑasasocialexpectationasmuchasaperiodineconomichistoryÑhasmadesuchmomentsthestatis-ticalnorm.StatisticsandtheQuantiÞcationofUncertaintyEducatedCameroonianwomentalkaboutlifetransi-tionsaslargelyrandomevents:theyarewhollyunpre-dictableandthereforenotsubjecttoplanningorinten-tional,effectiveaction.Theexplanationthatmyinter-locutorsgivefortheimpossibilityofplanningisthateventsintheworldarerandomÑtheyhavenoapparentorderandcannotbereliedupontoremainstableorcon-stantenoughtoserveasthebasisofplanning.Socialstatistics(suchasdemography,quantitativesociology,andvariationalsociolinguistics)aimspreciselytoana-lyzeandformalizesuchrandomevents,abstractingstructurefromapparentdisorderbyexaminingrelativelyfewattributesofalargenumberofcases.ItquantiÞesuncertainty,measuresitformally,andcomparesdegreesofuncertaintyacrosscases.AsHacking()hasar-gued,socialstatisticsservetoÒtamechance,Óidentify-ingstatisticalregularitiesasanewkindoflaw.Iwillarguethatexperientialuncertaintyandstatisticalun-certaintyaremoredifferentthanalike,particularlyintheirrelationshipstotimeandtocontingency.Forthisreason,theinferencesaboutuncertaintyandintention-alityderivedfromaclosereadingofethnographiccon-textandcontentcannotbedirectlyintegratedwiththosederivedfromstatisticalanalysisofquantitativedata.AsBledsoe()andWhyte()show,contingencycontributessigniÞcantlytothecreationofexperientialuncertainty.BledsoearguesthatamongGambianwomen,physicalagingisnonlinearandunpredictableinadvancepreciselybecauseitdependsonÑthatis,isonÑsomanythings,particularlyincludingtheirreproductivehistories.Fromtheperspectiveofthein-dividualplanningalife,themorethingsarecontingentonotherthings,themoreunpredictabletheyare.Inde-mographyandquantitativesociology,bycontrast,whatiscontingentispreciselyuncertain;contingencyisthelinchpinofstatisticalassociationandregularity.ThreekeytoolsinthequantiÞcationofuncertaintyaremeasuresofdispersion,theconÞdenceinterval,andtestsofsigniÞcance.Inordertoknowthetruevalueofsomelength,theresearchermaymeasureittentimesandaveragetheresults.Theresultsofthesemeasureswillvarysomewhat,andthisvariationinvaluescanbeformalizedwiththestandarddeviation,ameasureofthedispersionofvaluesaroundthemean.Inthissimplestcase,thestandarddeviationmeasurestheuncertaintyduetomeasurementerror.Inmeasuresofsomechar-acteristicinapopulation,whereeachindividualcon-tributesonevalue,thestandarddeviationindicatesthedegreetowhichindividualsdifferfromtheaverage;apopulationthatisveryhomogeneousinreferencetosomecharacteristicwillhavealowstandarddeviation WhentheFutureDecidesformeasuresofthatcharacteristic.Uncertaintytakestheformofvariability;characteristicsthatshowgreaterdis-persionaremoreuncertain.Now,ImaywanttoknowtherangeofvalueswithinwhichIcanbe%certainthatatruelengthlies:theconÞdenceinterval.TheconÞdenceintervaldependsonthestandarddeviationandthesamplesize(numberoftries)andassumesthatthedistributionfromwhichthesampleisdrawnhasaparticularshape.Thisassump-tionisquitegoodinthecaseofmeasuringlength,acasecomparabletotheoneforwhichthedistributionwasdeÞned.Asnumerousdemographersandquantitativeso-ciologistshavepointedout,however,itisarelativelypoorassumptionforsomepopulationstatistics,forwhichthereisnoapriorireasontoassumeonedistri-butionoveranotherone.WhatconÞdenceintervalsre-turnisnotresultsthatare%rightbutresultsthatwillberight%ofthetime,overthelongrun,underthestatedassumptionsabouttheshapeofthedistribu-tion.Alternatively,ImaywanttoknowhowimprobableitisthatanobjectÕstruelengthisinches.TestsofsigniÞcance,appropriatehere,indicatetheprobabilityofobtainingacertainresultgiventhatthetruevalueequalssomespeciÞedquantity,aswellassomeassumptions.LikeconÞdenceintervals,testsofsigniÞcancequantifythefrequencywithwhichsomeinferencewouldbecor-rectoverthelongrunÑthatis,theyquantifyuncertaintyintermsofhowoftenwearelikelytobewronginalargenumberoftries.Means,standarddeviations,andconÞdenceintervalshaveunambiguousinterpretationsinreferencetomea-suressuchaslengthsofobjects,wherevariationisdueonlytoerror.ButpopulationaveragesÑsuchastheav-erageageatmarriageortheaveragenumberofsexualpartnersbeforeageÑhaveaninterestingambiguity,madeexplicitintheÞrsthalfofthenineteenthcenturyintheworkofQueteletandhisinterlocutors(seeDes-;Porter).Queteletarguedthatthisvariation,too,isaformoferror,becausethepopulationaverage(thefamousl’hommemoyen)istheidealtowardwhichallstrive((1835]),11whereashiscriticsviewedpopulationmeansasmeredescriptionsoftheirrespectivepopulations,withnoindependentexis-tenceormoralforce.Thelatterinterpretationisalmostuniversallyheldtoday.Nonetheless,QueteletÕsgeneralconceptthatindividualsinapopulationcouldbethoughtofasindependentÒtrialsÓ(paralleltotossesofacoinormeasuresofadistance)andtheseindependenttrialsusedtoestimatesomeparameterofinterestplays10.StandardconÞdenceintervalsofthemeanassumethatthesam-pleisdrawnfromanormaldistribution.Historically,thenormalandthebinomialdistributionswerethoughttobethesame,asseeninDeMoivreÕs()DoctrineofChances.Thebinomialcurveisthelimitingdistributionofahistogramofoutcomesofafaircointossorsomeotherrandom,dichotomousevent.Thehistoricalpro-cessthroughwhichthedistributionofoutcomesofafaircointoss,theerrorpatternofmeasurements,andthedistributionofchar-acteristicsthathaveÒmyriadlittlecausesÓcametobeviewedasthesameisdescribedinHacking()andStigler(11.ThereisaninterestingechoofthispositioninDurkheimÕs((1938]:8)conceptofthesocialfact.acentralroleincontemporarysocialstatistics,especiallyintheuseofregressionanalysis(seediscussionsinBall,Barnes,Freedman,LeBras,PooveyRegressionandcorrelationbothestimatethedegreetowhichvariationinoneparameteraccountsforvariationinanotherorthedegreetowhichtwovariablesareas-sociated.Regressionadditionallyprovidesanequationdescribingtheshapeoftherelationshipandassessesthecertaintywithwhichthatequationpredictsvaluesofthedependentvariable.Inbothcasestheanalysisre-quiresalargenumberofcases,eithertrialsintheclassicsenseorindividualsinapopulation,eachrepresentingoneÒtrial.ÓSuchmethodscanbeusedtoestimatehowmuchofadogÕsweightcanbepredictedbyitslength,howmuchofamanÕsincomecanbepredictedbyhiseducation,orhowwellastudentÕsgrade-pointaveragecanbepredictedbyherSAT(ScholasticAptitudeTest)score.Therelationshipsdescribedintheseequationsareaformofcontingencyinthemoststraightforwardsense:onevalueiscontingentonanother,notdeterminedbybutnonethelessdependentonit.Indeed,theaimofre-gressionistoestablishsuchcontingentrelationships,readingbackwardfromactualoutcomestothelatentpotentialsthatapparentlyexistedbeforeanyoneknewhowtorecognizethem.Toclaimthatincome,forex-ample,isstronglycontingentoneducationmeanstoasocialstatisticianthatincomeisnotuncertain:tothecontrary,itcanbepredictedwithrelativelylittleerror.Contingencythusplaysoppositerolesinindividualex-perienceandstatisticalanalysis.Inregression,thequantiÞcationofuncertaintyismorecomplicatedthaninthesimplercaseofasinglepopu-lationmeanbecauseithasseveralsources.Notonlyiseachtrialmeasuredwithsomeerrorbuttherelationshipbetweenthetwovariablesmayalsobemoreorlessstrong.Formostpurposes,therelevantformofuncer-taintyismeasuredbythepredictionerrors(calculatedasthestandarderrorofestimate),thedegreetowhichestimatesofthedependentvariabledifferfromobservedvalues.Thus,statisticalapproachesquantifytwodis-tinct,althoughrelated,kindsofuncertainty:theuncer-taintyofmeasures,whicharisesfromerrorandpopu-lationvariation,andtheuncertaintyofprediction,iconicallyrepresentedbythestandarderrorinregressionanalysis.Boththeuncertaintyofmeasuresandtheun-certaintyofpredictionresultfromvariability.Indeed,unexplainable,unpredictablevariationstatisticalun-certainty.GiventhatCamerooniansexperiencesuchin-12.ThisdoesnotmeanthatregressioncanÒÞndÓarelationshipofanyform;themostcommonlyusedregressiontechnique,or-dinaryleastsquaresregression,assumesthattherelationshipislinear,andtheequationdescribestheinterceptandslope.13.OrdinaryleastsquaresregressionwasdevelopedbyLaPlaceinatreatiseontheorbitsofJupiterandSaturn().Thetrials,observationsoftheplanets,includedvariablessuchasthelongitudeofSaturn,itsannualmotion,anditseccentricity.Itiseasytoviewtheseobservationsasaseriesofmeasurementscomparabletomea-suresoflength.Theextensionofthisconcepttosocialstatisticsdidnotoccuruntilthenineteenthcentury. currentanthropologyVolume,Number,Junetenseuncertainty,wewouldexpectthedemographicratesalsotobehighlyvariable,andindeedtheyare.IconductedasurveyofwomeninsouthernCameroonthatrecorded,amongotherthings,thedatesoflifeeventssuchasbridewealthandchurchmarriages,pregnancies,schooltransfers,andperiodsofformalem-AsretrospectivereportsabouteventsinthepastÑsometimesfarinthepastÑthesedatasurelycon-tainsomemeasurementerror:somewomenwillreportthattheyleftschoolatalthoughinfacttheywereastheresultofamemorylapseormistake.Measurementerrorsarerandomindirection,andbecausetheeventsareimportanttheseerrorsshouldbesmall:fewwomenwillmistakenlysaythattheyleftschoolatiftheywereinfact.However,suchdatamayalsobesubjecttosystematicbias.Asinnarrativelifehistories,peoplemaywellÒcorrectÓpasteventstomakethemappearmorenonnativeorcoherent(RosenwaldandOchburg;HoerningandAlheit;OchsandCapps).Post-hoccorrectiongenerallyresultsinmorecus-tomaryornormalizedaccountsofthepast,thatis,re-ducestheapparentuncertainty.Yet,despitetheretro-spectivecorrectionthatisalmostcertainlyhappening,thesedatashowremarkablevariabilityinthetimingandsequenceoflifeevents.showsamodiÞedboxplotoftheagesatwhichwomenwhowereatleastyearsoldatthetimeofinterviewunderwentsixlifetransitions:leavingschool,civilmarriage,bridewealthmarriage,Þrstbirth,Þrstfor-malemployment,andÞrstresidenceapartfromconsan-guinekin.Twothingsshownintheplotareofconsequencetomyanalysis.First,thenumberofwomenwhohadmadetheindicatedtransitionsvarieswidely,fromjustabout%forbridewealthmarriagetoover%forleavingGiventhatthesearesuchsociallysalienttran-sitions,itisinterestingthatnoneofthemareuniversalandsomeareactuallyquiterare.Second,evenamongthosewomenwhohadexperiencedtherespectiveevents,thetransitionsoccurredatwidelyvaryingages:thein-terquartilerangesaremorethenyearsforallsixevents,andthreearemorethanyears.ThiswiderangeofvariationaccordingtotwomeasuresisÑfromastatis-ticalperspectiveÑuncertainty.Despiteitsusefulnessinindicatingageandtime,Þg-cannotshowthesequenceofeventsinthelivesofindividualwomen.Theoretically,theatwhichwomenundergoeventsandtheproportionundergoingthemcouldbothbehighlyuncertaineventhoughtheofeventswasclearlyÞxed.Figurestratesthatthisisnotthecase.EachofthesixeventsoccurredÞrstinthelivesofsomesurveyrespondentsandlastinthelivesofothers.Althoughtheeventsarenotequiprobableineachsequentialposition,fourofthe14.Thesamplingmethodsandinterviewprotocolareavailableon15.Inordertobeincludedinthesample,womenhadtohaveeitherpermanentlyleftorcompletedhighschool.Thus,thewomenwhohadnotyetleftschoolwereattendinguniversityortechnicalsixhaveadistributionthatisindistinguishablefromchance.Amoredetailedanalysiswouldlookateachpossibletrajectorythroughthesixevents;however,therepossiblewaysofundergoingsixorderedevents,theanalysiswouldrequiremorethanthecasesthatIhave.Nonetheless,evenatthissimplerlevel,theamountofvariabilityisalreadystaggering.Thereisnodominantsequenceoftransitionevents,andtherangeofagesoverwhichtheeventsoccurisverybroad.ThetimingofmajorlifeeventsinsouthernCameroonisfor-mallyuncertain.Thismightappeartheendoftheanalysis:Cameroon-iansexperienceradicaluncertaintyintheirlives,andÑmirabiledictuÑweÞndahugeamountofvariationinthetimingandoccurrenceofdemographicevents.ThiswayofcombiningqualitativeandquantitativeresearchsothattheybothÒtellthesamestoryÓiswidespread.Butthereisanintellectualdangerinagreeingtooquickly.Sometimes,ethnographicandstatisticalanal-ysesusethesametermstoanalyzequitedifferentthings.Uncertaintyoffersoneexample.Insteadoftreatingquan-titativeandqualitativedataascomplementary,Iproposeinsteadtofocusonthedisjuncturesanddiscontinuitiesbetweenthem,lookingfortheinstancesinwhichcon-frontingethnographicinterpretationwithstatisticalpat-ternsproducesanewanalysisoratleastnewquestions.Inthisway,wecanthrowStevensÕsÒpalelightÓofeachontheother.Here,thedisjuncturebetweenthephenom-enologicalexperienceofuncertaintyasreportedinthenarrativeself-representationsandthestatisticalmea-surementofuncertaintyrestsontherolesoftimeandcontingency.Wecanuseregressionanalysistolearnaboutstatis-ticalcontingency,thatis,tolearnwhatfactorsareas-sociatedÑwithwhatdegreeofcertaintyÑinaretrospec-tivesamplewithgivenoutcomes,suchasthenumberofchildrenthatdifferentwomenhavehad.Lookingatsequencesofeventsthathavealreadyoccurred,itispos-sibletoestablishpatternedrelationshipsbetweenthoseevents,identifyingcharacteristicsasindicatorsoffutureoutcomes.Underonereading,thisisaformofthedu-biouspracticeofÒbackshadowingÓascriticallyanalyzedbyMorson()andBernstein()inthatitaimstoÞndearlytracesofknownlateroutcomes.Butitisalsopossibletoarguethat,byusinglargenumbersofcasestoidentifypatternsratherthanseekingoutpremonitionsofindividualoutcomes,regressionisdoingsomethingquitedifferent.Regressionmaybemoreaformofcom-parativehistorythanofbackshadowing.Becausetheuseofregressiontoidentifypatternsgen-erallyrequiressampleslargerthanmine,Ihaveem-ployedtheresultsoftheDemographicandHealthSurvey,anationallyrepresentativesampleofwomeninterviewedabouttheirreproductivehistories,theirhealth,andthehealthoftheirchildrenbyMacro16.Thatis,sixpossibleÞrsteventstimesÞvepossiblesecondeventstimesfourpossiblethirdevents,etc.().Sincewomenmayhavecompletedanywherefromnoeventstoallsix,therearepossibletrajectories. WhentheFutureDecides Fig.1.Observeddistributionofagesatspeciclifeevents.Theboxesrepresenttheinterquartilerangeofagesattransition;theloweredgeoftheboxistheagebywhich%ofthewomenreportedhavingcompletedtheeventandtheupperedgetheagebywhich%reportedhavingdoneso.The“whiskers”aboveandbelowtheboxindicatethefullrangeofageswithinwhichanyobservedwomanreportedmakingthetransition.Manyofthewomensurveyedhadcompletedonlysomeofthetransitionspriortothesurvey;thenumbersofthosewhohadcompletedeachtransitionareindicatedatthebottomofthegure.InternationalinconjunctionwiththeCameroonianna-tionalstatisticalbureau.Tableshowstheresultsofordinaryleastsquaresregressionestimatingtheparam-etersofanequationforthetotalnumberofchildreneverbornasalinearcombinationofÞvevariables:themotherÕsage,whethersheattendedsecondaryschool(dummyvariable,yes),thenumberofyearssinceherÞrstmarriage,whethershelivesinanurbanarea(dummy,yes),andwhethershehasbeenmarriedmorethanonce(dummy,Linearequationsofthisformnecessarilyassumethateveryunitofincreaseinthepredictorvariablehasthesameeffectontheoutcome,andthisequationincludesnointeractionsbetweenthevariables.Yet,despitetheseextremesimpliÞcations,thisequationisabletoaccountforoverhalfofthevariationinnumbersofchil-dreneverborn(adjusted-squareof);thenumberofchildrenthatawomanhasborneishighlycontingent17.Thedataandsamplingmethodsareavailableathttp://www.measuredhs.com.18.Themorenumeratereaderwillarguethatthisisnotanoptimalformalization,becauseordinaryleastsquaresregressiontreatsthedependentvariableasifitwerecontinuouswhereasinfactthenumberofchildrenisdiscrete.Thisistrue:anorderedlogitmodelwouldbemoreappropriate.Ipresenttheordinaryleastsquaresregressionresultsbecausetheyarequalitativelyrightandmoreintuitiveforthereaderunfamiliarwithstatistics.ontheseÞvefactors,andbyknowingthemwecandosubstantiallybetterthanchanceinaccountingforfamilyAllofthevariablesarehighlysigniÞcant,whichmeansthatwecanbeconÞdentthattheireffectsarenon-zeroandintheindicateddirection.Thepointofshowingtheseresultsisnotthattheyareinthemselvessurpris-ing.ThefactthatolderwomenhavebornemorechildrenthanyoungerwomenisalmostdeÞnitionallytrue,andavastcorpusofresearchhasdiscussedtheinversere-lationbetweeneducationandfertility(butforCameroonspeciÞcallyseeJohnson-Hanks).Rather,whatisimportanthereishoweasily,inretrospect,thesocialstatisticiancanaccountforvariationinthenumberofchildrenthatdifferentwomenbear.Althoughinprospectwomenthemselvesareunabletosaywhattheyintendorplan,itissimpletoidentifywhichattributesareas-sociatedwithwhichoutcomesinlargedatasetsafterthefact.Inasituationofextremeexperientialuncertaintyandsubstantialvariationinoutcomes,thoseoutcomesnonethelessconformtopatternsofcontingencythatarediscernibleintheaggregate.Thissituationinvertsformalizationsofknowledge,in-tention,anduncertaintyascommonlytheorizedsinceHume.Inmostsuchmodels,thestatisticianisassumedtobeatadisadvantagevis-a`-visthesocialactor,because currentanthropologyVolume,Number,June Fig.2.Sequenceoflife-historyevents.theactorknowshisownmotiveswhereasthestatisti-ciancanonlytradeinprobabilities.Forexample,imagineastatisticianestimatingthelikelihoodthatacommuterwillselecttrainAovertrainB,basedonlong-runprob-abilities,atperhapsoneinthree.Theestimateisfun-damentallyuncertain:eitherAorBcouldoccurinanygivencase.Forthecommuterherself,however,nosuchuncertaintyexists:sheworksinBerkeleyratherthanSanFranciscoandwillthereforeentertrainBeverytime.Becausethecommuterknowsthemotivationofherac-tion,whichservesasitsformalcauseforSearleanditsmeaningforSchutz,heractionisnotuncertain.Inthisexample,therewillalwaysbegreateruncertaintyintheestimatesoftheexternalobserverthanintheexperienceoftheintentionalagent.ButinthecaseofreproductivepracticeinsouthernCameroonweÞndtheopposite:womencannotthemselvespredictwhatreproductiveoutcomestheywillhaveinadvance,althoughinretro-spectthestatisticiancanaccuratelyaccountforthevar-iation.Tothinkthroughtheimplicationsofthisinver-sion,weturntoHumeÕsdiscussionofprobabilityanduncertainknowledge.TheProbabilityofCauseandtheProbabilityofChanceHumeÕsprimaryworkonprobabilityisembeddedinatreatiseonthesourcesandformsofhumanknowledge.Theworkinvestigateshowwemakeinferencesabouttheworldandwhensuchinferencesarevalid.Probabilityanduncertaintyarethustreatedinconjunctionwithcau-sation.Humepositsanobserverwhoisinvestedintheworld,emotionallyattachedtoit.Describingthementalstatesoftheobserverofarandomdietossattemptingtopredictwhichsurfacewillfalluppermost,Hume((1739]:89)writes:Werunallofthem[thepossibleoutcomes]overinourminds:thedeterminationofthethoughtiscom-montoall;butnomoreofitsforcefallstotheshareofanyonethanwhatissuitableinitsproportionwiththerest.ÕTisafterthismannertheoriginalim-pulse,andconsequentlythevivacityofthought,arisingfromthecauses,isdividedandsplitinpiecesbytheintermingledchances.ItiseasytoseehowthesocialactorwhoseÒvivacityofthoughtÓisÒdividedandsplitinpiecesbytheinter-mingledchancesÓwouldÞndlifeaÒbizarreandambig-uousÓasdidMarie-Claire,myinterlocutorquotedabove.HumeÕsdepictionoftheanalystconfrontedwithtruerandomnesscorrespondswiththedescriptionsofactiongivenbywomenconfrontedbythephenomenalexpe-rienceofuncertainty.Whennooutcomeismorelikelythananyother,ambivalenceisinevitable.InsouthernCameroon,muchofexperienceÑfromwaitingforabushtaxitowaitingforapaycheck,fromthebribesdemandedbypolicementothoseexpectedbyschoolmasters,fromgettingpregnanttogettingmalariaÑappearsrandom.Peoplemaymaintainapostureofuncertaintybecausetheworldthattheyfaceis,indeed,oneofintermingledHowever,accordingtoHume,notallvariationinob-servableoutcomesisevidenceofchance.Apparentlyran-domoutcomesmayarisefromtheworkingofchancebutalso,hereasons,fromÒthesecretoperationofcon- WhentheFutureDecidesResultsofOrdinaryLeastSquaresRegressionPredictingtheNumberofChildrenEverBorn CoefÞcientStandardError%ConÞdenceInterval 220100029763700000021450Attendedhighschool25770400YearssinceÞrstmarriage014650530Marriedmorethan67290790Livesinanurbanarea280202701365008038490 CameroonDemographicandHealthSurvey,NumberofobservationstrarycausesÓ((1739]:90).Aseachcommuterentersthetrain,thediversityofdirectionsappearsrandomuntiltheobserverlearnsofthehiddencausesthatleadonecommuterintothetrainforBerkeley,anotherintotheoneforSanFranscisco.Similarly,ifaleafonalakeispushedinonedirectionbythecurrentandintheop-positedirectionbythewind,itmayskitterbackandforth,caughtbetweenthecontrarycauses.Theidenti-Þcationofsuchcontrarycauses(nowusuallycalledpar-tialcauses)isamajoraimofmultipleregressionandotherclassicmethodsinsocialstatistics,whereanypos-siblecausesarenecessarilyincomplete.Analysesofthecontrarycauses,whetherstatisticalorÒexperimentalÓasHumewrites,necessarilylookbackward,identifyingregularitiesinthepast(p.Whenthemindformsareasoningconcerninganymatteroffact,whichisonlyprobable,itcastsitseyebackwarduponpastexperience,andtransferringittothefuture,ispresentedwithsomanycontraryviewsofitsobject,ofwhichthosethatareofthesamekindunitingtogether,andrunningintooneactofthemind,servetofortifyandenlivenit.TheseÒobjectsÓandÒfactsÓaretheconjunctionsthatplaysoimportantaroleinHumeÕstheoryofcausation.Thispassagedevelopstheideathatwhereasabsoluteregularityofpastexperienceleadsthemindtoinferarelationofcauseandeffect,aseriesofexperienceswithcontraryoutcomesleadsthemindtobeÒdeterminedtothesuperioronlywiththatforce,whichremainsaftersubtractingtheinferiorÓ(p.).BothstandincontrasttothevivacityofthoughtÒsplitinpiecesbytheinter-mingledchancesÓinthecaseofpurechance,wherenoexperienceoutweighsanyotherandthemindcannotsettleonanyoutcomeatall.SinceHumearguesthatcausationcannotbedirectlyobservedbutonlyinferredfromrepeatedobservationofassociatedevents,theanal-ysisofcauseandprobabilityisnecessarilybackward-looking,overalargenumberofpastcases.Regressionanalysiscanthusbethoughtofasthequantitativefor-malizationofHumeÕsmethodofcausalinference.LetusreturntoconsiderthestatementsofmyCa-meroonianinterlocutorsÑÒThosearethingsofthefu-ture,wecannotknowthem,ÓandÒEverythingthatpres-entsitself,onemakesdoÓÑinlightoftheformalizationsofuncertaintyfromstatisticalanalysisandHume.EvenifeducatedCameroonianwomenunderstoodperfectlytherelativechances,theymightstillassertthattheydidnotknowhowmanychildrentheywouldhaveorwhen.What,then,doesthisclaimofignorancemean?Onepos-sibilityisthattheyaresimplybeinganalyticallycare-fulÑevenafterconsideringthedifferentelementsofcon-tingency,asubstantialuncertaintyremains.EvenifawomanÞndsherselfinasituationinwhich%ofsim-ilarwomenhavebornechildren,shemaystillÒnotknowÓbecausethevivacityofherthoughtissplitinpiecesbytheremaining%.This,Ithink,istheleastlikelyreasonthatwomenexpressuncertainty.Amoreprobableexplanationisthattheyperceivetheentiresys-temofsocialrelationsÑincludingtherelativelikelihoodofthisorthatÕshappeningtowomenofsuch-and-suchcharacteristicsÑassubjecttosuddenandextremechange.Saiddifferently,theyareunsurewhetherpastexperienceoffersagoodguideforfutureoutcomesbe-causesomuchaboutthefutureappearstobeinßux.Astillmorelikelyexplanationisthatwomenarewellawareofthecontingencyofcertainoutcomes(likechild-bearing)onotherevents(likemarriage),butthefactthatmarriageisnoeasiertopredictmeansthatthiscontin-gencyincreasesuncertaintyratherthanreducingit.Ifnoneoftherelevantparameterscanbeforeseen,thenthepowerofcontingencyestablishedretrospectivelyisofnouse.Lookingprospectivelyatanindividuallifecourse,contingencyuncertainty(BledsoeInthecontrastbetweenthedietossandthesubwaytrain,theintentionalstateofthecommuterÑthatofin-tendingtogotoworkÑservesasahiddencause.Standingontheplatform,thecommuterenvisionstheplannedactofarrivingatworkinthefutureperfecttense.Ex-perientially,thereisnouncertaintyaboutthecourseofactiontofollow.ThetraintoBerkeleyarrives,andsheboardsit.Fromtheperspectiveoftheanalyst,theeventoftrain-enteringiseitheruncertainornot,dependingonwhetherhehasidentiÞedtherelevantrelationshipofcontingency.Inthisexample,intentionalactionservesastheprototypeofHumeÕsprobabilityofcause:thecausesmaybehiddentoobserverorpartiallycontradic-tory,buttheyarecausesnonetheless,andwithsufÞcient currentanthropologyVolume,Number,JuneinformationtheircausalforcecanbeidentiÞed.Buthowarewetotheorizesocialactionthatlackstheexplicitpriorintentionofcommutingtowork?Itisonekindofproblemtoidentifytheunderlyingsystematicityinac-tionthatisstrategicallyconstructedbutquiteanothertoexplainactionthattakesplacewhentheactorsdonotknowwhattherangeofpossibilitieswillbeorevenwhat,exactly,theywilltryfor.Whenallthatisleftistheintentioninaction,predictionbecomesverydifÞcultTheRoutinizedStateofUncertaintyIconcludewhereIbegan,withthequestionofwhyed-ucatedCameroonianwomensooftenanswerquestionsaboutdesiredchildnumberswithstatementsaboutin-tendedchildtiming.TheÞrstanswerissimpleenoughÑtheÞnalnumberofchildrenishighlycontingentonalargenumberoffactors,outsideoftheircontrol,whereasthetimingoftheÞrstchildiscontingentonfewerthings.Whilestatisticallyandinretrospectrelationshipsofcon-tingencyreduceuncertainty,inindividualcasesandinprospecttheyincreaseit.Thus,womenanswerquestionsaboutchildnumberswithstatementsaboutchildtimingbecauseitissomethingthattheyaremorelikelytobeabletoknowandrepresentsafuturethatcanviablybeenvisioned.Yet,itisnotonlybecausethetimingoftheÞrstbirthismoreimmediatethatwomenaremorewill-ingtopredictit.Or,rather,theirstatementsaboutbirthtimingarenotreallypredictionsoffutureoutcomesasmuchasassertionsabouttheselvesthatwillinhabitthatfuture.Theyaresignpoststowardaverydifferentwayofthinkingabouttheobjectsofintentionalityandtherelationshipbetweenintentionandaction.Bothanswersturnontheproblemofuncertaintyandthechallengethatliveduncertaintyposesforclassicalmodelsofaction.IntheÞrstcase,theintentionalmodelfailsbecausenofutureperfectscanbeclearlyimaginedorbecausetheycanonlybeimaginedprovisionally,pendingwhateverdramaticupheavalwillinevitablycome.Perhapstheclearestexampleoftheseupheavalsisthestoryofthewomanwhowantedtobeanun,re-countedtomebyoneofmyresearchassistants:Frompreschoolon,shestayedwiththenuns.Sheattendedallofprimaryschoolthere,andmiddleschool.Shewasapeculiarsortofperson.Becauseat[theschool],fromthetimeyouenteryouarealreadyanun,becausethereisthenovitiate.Whenshewasintenthgrade,shemetayoungguyduringoneofhervisitstoherparentsontheweekend....ShesaysthatshedoesnÕtknowwhatseizedher.TheÞrsttimeshesawthatguywastheÞrsttimeshehadsex.ShesaysthatshedoesnÕtknow[why]andsheregretsit.Shesleptwiththeguyandfellpreg-nant.SheleftschoolrightaroundAprilwhenshecouldtellthatitwasgettingserious.ShetookoffhernunÕshabitandranaway.Shenailedthehabitonthefrontgatetotheschool.Shenailedherhabittothefrontgateandturnedherback.Shesaid,ÒMe,Iwantedtobeanun,butlifewantedotherwise.ÓAsidefromtheaestheticappealofapregnantwomanrunningoffinthenight,herhabitnailedtothefrontgateofthenovitiate,ßappinginthewind,thisstoryemphasizestheradicalandunpredictableturnsthatCa-meroonianssimplyexpectlifetobringthem.Evenpeo-plewithclearlydeÞnedaspirationsanticipatethatÑaslikelyasnotÑsomethingwillhappenthatthrowsev-erythingintodisarray.ThesecondreasonthateducatedCameroonianwomenusuallytalkaboutthesocialtimingofbirthsinsteadofabouttheirnumberisthatnumberssimplydonotmatterverymuch.Or,moreaccurately,inreferencetorepro-duction,numericgoalsareextremelyvague,whereasthesocialgoalofhonorablemotherhoodÑbeingawomanwhobearsallherchildrenwithinmonogamousmar-riageÑislessso.Thisdilemmaofvagueorunderspeci-ÞedgoalsposesacriticalproblemforatheoryofactiongroundedinthefulÞllmentofpriorintentions.Whentheintentionalobjectoftheactionisvagueorunderspeci-Þed,itcanbefulÞlledinavarietyofways.Insuchcases,whatisatstakeisnottheselectionofalternativemeanstoachieveasingle,desiredendbutratheraprocessofestablishingexactlywhichofarangeofviableendswillbeactualizedonthebasisofthemeansthatpresentthemselves.InSearleÕsterms,thereareonlyintentionsinaction;whatmayappearinretrospectasprior,mo-tivatingintentionsareformulatedonlythroughthepro-cessofÞndingoutwhatispossible.Modelsofintentionalactionandparticularlyrational-choicetheoryassumethattheactorchoosesbetweenalternativemeanstoachievesomedesiredends.Atthelimit,thesemodelsassumethatactorsaremaximizingsomethingÑwhetherutilityorprestigeormaterialgain.Butmanyaspirations,including,Icontend,themajorityoffamily-formationgoalsinsouthernCameroon,areconceptuallylargeandmultifacetedandcanbefulÞlledindifferentways.Atthesametime,thepossiblepath-waystoachievinganysuchthingÑanypartorversionofthisunderspeciÞedaspirationÑarefewandhardtoÞnd.Theactivity,therefore,isnottodevelopagoodplanandfollowitbutrathertorespondeffectivelytothecontingent,sudden,andsurprisingoffersthatlifecanmake.Onthebasisoftheseoffers,theaspirations,oncevague,willbeconcretized.Insteadofrationalizingmeanstochosenends,therefore,actorstakeadvantageofwhat-evermeansareavailableandthussettleonaspeciÞcendoutofthemanythatwouldhavebeenacceptable.Socialactorsengaginginjudiciousopportunismselecttheendstosuittheavailablemeansratherthanthereverse.IntheiranalysisoftheriseoftheMedici,PadgettandAnsellhavearguedforasimilarapproachtosocialac-tion,writingthatÒambiguityandheterogeneity,notplanningandself-interest,aretherawmaterialsofwhichpowerfulstatesandpersonsareconstructedÓ().Theschoolgirlsandyoung,educatedwomenwhosereproductivelivesconcernmeheremaybenei-theraswealthynoraspowerfulastheMedici,buttheir WhentheFutureDecidessuccessesarenolessrealandtheirmodesofrobustac-tionnodifferent.Underextremeuncertainty,whenalltherulesarechanging,whatworksisnotthebeststrat-egybutthemostßexibleoneÑtheonethattakeseverypresentinthesubjective,thatkeepseveryalternativeopenaslongaspossible,andthatpermitstheactortoactrapidlyandßexiblytotakeadvantageofwhateveropportunitiesarise.Inpreviouswork,IhaveanalyzedspeciÞcconjunc-turesinthelifecoursesofyoungwomenwhenmultiplealternativefuturesareavailableorunderreconsideration).Thesevitalconjunctures,likethearmedstandoffsanalyzedbyWagner-PaciÞci(),areparticularlyclearexamplesofactionunderuncertaintybecausetheyareextremecases,quotidian,habitualpractice.IntheseextremecasesÑwheremultiplepoten-tialfuturesareinplay,wheretheconsequencesofactionareatgravebutlargelyunknowableandunfoldinmul-tipletime-framesÑtheinadequaciesofamodelofinten-tionalactionbecomeespeciallyapparent.Butwhatisstrikingaboutlacrise,andperhapsmoregenerallyaboutAfricanmodernity,isthedegreetowhicheverydayex-periencetakesontheambiguity,intensity,anduncer-taintyofvitalconjuncturesandstandoffs.Intheroutin-izedstateofcrisisofcontemporaryCameroon,everyactionhasthepotentialtoexplodeintoafull-blownstandoff;evenquotidianeventsholdthepossibilityofgeneratingvitalconjunctures.IhavearguedthatneitherclassicmodelsofintentionalactionnorformalprobabilitycancapturethejudiciousopportunismemployedbyyoungCameroonianwomeninmanagingtheirreproductiveÑand,morebroadly,so-cialÑlives.Intentionalmodelsfailbecausetheyinsistoncleargoalsandignoreuncertainty.Probabilisticmod-elsfailbecauseinthemanagementofindividuallivesthedenominatorisalwaysone,andthelong-runchancesmatterlittle.Whenthefuturedecideswhichpathswillbepossible,itisnotfatalistictosaythatonedoesnotknowwhichpathonewillfollow.EducatedCameroon-ianwomenwhorefrainfromsayinghowmanychildrentheyhopetohaveareneitherindifferentnorsupersti-tious.HavingrecognizedthatlifeisÒbizarreandambig-uous,Ótheyarearticulatingtherulesofadifferentgame,inwhichthepathwaysthemselvespartiallydeterminethegoalinview.AfterAdelepassedthebaccalaureateexamonwhichshehadpreviouslysaidsomuchde-pended,Iaskedheragainwhatsheplannedtodo.Withcharacteristicpoetry,sheresponded:ÒTherewherethedoorswillbeopenedforme,Iwillsetoffforthatplace.Ó19.Despiteimportantsimilarities,vitalconjuncturesandstandoffsalsodifferinseveralsigniÞcantways.StandoffsarepartiallydeÞnedbytheirlimitedsetofpotentialoutcomesÑdeals,surrenders,andviolence(Wagner-PaciÞciandpassim);standoffsneces-sarilyhavetwoadversariesandtheactionisnecessarilydialogic);inastandoff,thedesiredorintendedoutcomes(atleastfromtheperspectiveoflawenforcement)arerelativelyspeciÞcandshort-term.johnc.caldwellDemographyandSociologyProgram,ResearchSchoolofSocialSciences,HCCoombsBuilding,AustralianNationalUniversity,Canberra,ACT,Australia5xii04ÒWhentheFutureDecidesÓprovidesasatisfactoryde-scriptionoftheuncertaintyoflifeinsub-SaharanAfrica.WhatislesssatisfactoryisthatitmanagestoimplythatattitudestothefuturearedifferentamongyoungCa-meroonianwomenthantheywouldbeamongyoungWesternwomenplacedinthesamesituation.Manyaspectsoflifeareveryuncertaininsub-SaharanAfrica.ThisuncertaintyarisesfrompovertyandtherapidtransitionfromtraditionallifestylesasÞrstcolo-nialismandthenindependenceinaglobalizingworldimpingedonAfricans.DictatorshipscansuddenlycausepastlegalpromisesorapparentlyÞrmlyheldjobstodis-appear.Inßationcancompletelydestroysavings;somecurrenciesinrecentdecadeshavebeendevaluedtolessthanone-thousandththeirpreviousvalues.Wholepop-ulationshavebeenorderedfromtheirvillagesbyplan-nersormadepartofrefugeestreamsbyarmies.AIDShascomefromnowheretodecimatemanyethnicgroups.Thisiswhy,inputtingforwardwealth-ßowstheory,Iarguedthatalmosttheonlysafepathinplanningforthefuturewastoinvestinchildren.Westernpopulationsoftenengageinshort-termplan-ningandseeingwhatopportunitiesareopentothem,buttheynecessarilydosoindifferentcontextsfromthosefoundinCameroon.Manyadoptedjustsuchshort-termstrategiesintheearlyyearsoftheGreatDepressionofthesandagainduringWorldWarII.Asmarriageandfertilityrateshaveplummetedinmuchofthecon-temporaryWest,manyyoungpeoplehavedecidedoncohabitation,formalmarriage,orthehavingorforgoingofhavingchildrenoverrelativelyshortperiodsandastheoccasionarose.Onlyaminorityhave,likeJohnson-Hanks,beencertainofmarryingandbearingtwochild-Marriageandreproductionhavebecomeincreasinglyunpredictableinmuchofsub-SaharanAfrica.Arrangedmarriagehaslargelybrokendown;bridewealthmaybepaidfully,inpart,late,ornotatall;partnershipsareincreasinglyunstable;contraceptivesmayormaynotbeavailablecontinuouslyandmaybeusableonlywiththepartnerÕsagreement;childrencomingbeforeorwithoutmarriagemaywellbelookedafterbythemotherorma-ternalgrandmothereveninapatrilinealsociety.MostyoungwomenÞndingthemselvesinthesituationofyoungCameroonianwomenwouldreactastheCame-rooniansdidÑbysayingthattheycouldnotpredictthefutureandwouldopendoorsastheybecameavailable.AcloserparallelwiththeWesternsituationwouldbeaskingWesternrespondentswhattheywoulddoifthey currentanthropologyVolume,Number,Junewerediagnosedashavingcancerorfoundthemselveswithoutemployment.Certainly,thefertilitysurveyshaveadoptedartiÞcialdevicessuchastheconceptsofÒidealÓorÒdesiredÓfam-ilysize.ThequestionisprobablynomorenonsensicalinCameroonthanitwouldbetoaskaWesternwomanifsheplannedtomarryandifsheplannedtocontinueinamarriedstatewithoutdivorce.InCameroontheÒup-to-GodÓresponsesoftenmeanexactlywhattheysay.IntheWestsuchquestionsconspicuouslyfailedtopredicteithertherecoveryoffertilityaftertheeconomicde-pressionofthesortheÒbabybustÓafterthelates.NeitheroursenseofprobabilitynortheteachingsofDavidHumestoppedusfromchangingourmindsaboutfamilysize.ThefertilitysurveyquestionsmaynotpredictthefutureineithertheFirstorThirdWorlds,butinboththeyareoftensurprisinglyclosetoactualfertility.IsmarriagelesspredictableinCameroonthanintheWest?Probablynot.IsfertilitylesspredictablethanintheWest?Probably.DoCameroonianwomenreactsen-sibly(rationally?)tothereproductivesituationinwhichtheyÞndthemselves?Almostcertainly.Islifelesscer-tainthanintheWest?Usually.ArethedifferentattitudesandresponsestoreproductivequestionsinAfricaandtheWestbetterexplainedbydifferentculturalheritagesordifferentcircumstances?Undoubtedlythelatter.simonedennisDisciplineofAnthropology,SchoolofSocialSciences,UniversityofAdelaide,Adelaide,Australia10i05Thisarticleproblematizesmodelsofintentionalactionandprobabilityonthegroundthattheyignorethepos-sibilityor(inthisethnographiccase,itseems)thecer-taintyofuncertainty.Itdevotestheoreticalattentiontothenotionofuncertaintyinandthroughrichanden-gagingethnographicmaterialandbydrawingattentiontotheideathatintentionalityandÒresultantÓactionareenduringeveninpostmodernity,inwhichßuxandchangeabound.Inthisregard,itachievesabroaderandunarticulatedaiminthatitshowsthatanthropologymustcontinuetoreßecttheconditionsofthepeopleandcircumstancesitstudies.Astheconditionsofbeinghu-manchange,sotoomustanthropologyÕsrangeoftheo-retical,methodological,andanalytictechniquesforex-ploringthoseconditions.Thisarticleoughttopromptustocontinuetoexaminehowourdisciplinerespondstothepeopleandconditionsweexplore,foritisaÞneexampleofgroundedtheory,inwhichimportantaspectsofanethnographicstudyemergetogeneratethetheo-reticalparametersusedtoexploresociallifeinapartic-ularcontext.Thearticlealsocontributestotheinsightsthatan-thropologicalandphenomenologicalframescanlendoneanother.Theshortcomingsofintentionalityinphenom-enologyarevalidlycritiquedhere,butIwonderifmorerecentcontributionsfromthosewhohavemergedphe-nomenologywithanthropologymightbefruitfullydrawnupontoexplorethelivesoftheseCameroonianwomen.IwouldbeinterestedtoseehowMichaelJack-sonÕs()conceptofintersubjectiveambiguity,forex-ample,mightbeusedtoexplorewhatJohnson-HanksdescribesasÒunfoldingsÓandÒassentsÓasopposedtothemorecertainandintentionalÒchoicesÓanddirec-tionalities.Thenotionofintersubjectiveambiguitymaybeusefulbecauseitsuggeststhatuncertaintyischar-acteristicofhumanconceptionandperception.AsJack-sonarguesinMinimaEthnographica,phenomenologistsopposemeasuringexperienceitselfagainstastandard(orgoal)andinsistthatwhatmatters,really,istheexperi-enceanditssocialoutcomes.Itisperhapsherethatabalancebetweenbeingmasteredbytheworldandmas-teringitisstruckÑasJacksoninsists,action(whetherreligious,artistic,ritual,orotherwise)anditsoutcomesaremadesenseof,inmodelsandlanguage,tosubordi-natetheworldtoÒthehegemonyofreason.ÓThisnotionofÒmasteryÓisofcoursedrawnfromBru-ner(),whouseditinsuchawayastoindicatethepotentialforreauthorship,reconstruction,andre-versalinsituationsinwhichtransformationofentrappedorrestrictedexperienceisdesirable.IwasledtowonderasIreadwhetherthestatementsofCameroonianwomenindicatingtheirawarenessofuncertaintyandtheirstrat-egiesfordealingwithitwithÒwisdomÓandÒwaitingÓwerenotexamplesofavarietyofmastery.Nofoolsthey,tosubmittothebizarrenessandambiguityoflifebyattemptingtochangetheseconditions;rather,theywillwaituntilthefuturerevealsitselftoembarkuponacourseofÒbeingabletodoÓsomething.Itstrikesmethatthismaybeaformofsubmittingtheworldtoreasonandreclaimingamasteryofsortsoverit,inBrunerÕssense.ThislineofthoughtseemstoretaintheauthorÕsclaimthatintentional-actionmodelsdonotÞttheeth-nographiccircumstancesandthatintentionsandplansmaynotneatlyandelegantlyleadtoacourseofresultantactionandgoalattainmentbutstilllendsasenseofagencyandstrategytolivingoverandabovetheÒindi-vidualtacticsÓofmakingdo.Onthisnote,Iwouldrecommendinthestrongestoftermsthattheauthordrawbackfromthepracticeofcharacterizingphenomenologyandintentionalityinthetermsusedbyafewphenomenologists.ItwouldbewisetoavoidusingSchutztostandmetonymicallyforÒthephenomenologists,Ósinceheclearlydoesnot.IalsothinkthatthereissomeconfusionaroundÒintention-ality,Ósincethetermasitisusedinphenomenologyisnotreducibletoplanning,strategizingandactingandiscertainlynottobeconfusedwiththecommonuseofthewordÒintention,Ówherethiswordreferstothepur-poseonemighthaveinacting.Thephenomenologicaluseofthetermpertainstotheoriesofknowledge,asopposedtotheoriesofhumanaction(seeSokolowskiThisarticleremindsusthattheworldisindeedcon-fusingandlessthanstraightforward,thatweareoftenengagedinattemptingtosubmitittothestrengthandsolidityofÒtruthÓandÒreasonÓtorenderitlessambig- WhentheFutureDecidesuousinboththeoreticalandlivedterms,andthatwemustcontinuetosubmitourtheoreticalpropositions,nomatterhowlong-heldorcomfortingtheymaybe,tothemostrigorousanthropologicalcritiqueandinquiry.Thisisbecause,asJacksonhasremindedus,cultureit-selfistheoutcomeofthefreedomtotoywiththepos-sibilitiesandthelimitsofbeinghumaninanygivenjanei.guyerDepartmentofAnthropology,JohnsHopkinsUniversity,N.CharlesSt.,MacaulayHall,Baltimore,MD,U.S.A.(jiguyer@jhu.edu).31xii04Rational-actiontheoryhasalwaysbeenfrustratinglylimitedforanthropologists,andJohnson-Hanksaddsanewsetoflogicalandethnographicreasons.Actorsinpresent-dayCameroonseetheworldasÒhighlyran-dom,Óthussuspendinganypossiblepresumptionofor-derlymeans-endcausalchains.How,then,doesoneÒcapturethejudiciousopportunismÓthroughwhichpeo-pleproducethebehaviorÑsuchasreproductivelifeÑthathasotherwisebeenformallymodeledorquantita-tivelysummarizedontheassumptionofpredictability?IdentiÞcationofpatterns,withinferentialstatementsaboutplausiblecausation,isÑsheimpliesÑaweakandevenmisleadingendeavor.Ethnographyaimstograsptheexperientiallevel,andifpeopleÕsexperiencecon-vincesthemofindeterminacythensocialscienceshouldnotimposeordersofitsown(DurkheimÕsclassicstudyofsuicidemightneedaddressinghere).Thereisagreatdealherethatisworthyofdeeperexploration.IsympathizewiththeauthorÕsimpulsetobreakdownthesequencesandthehumanlogicsintosmallerunitsandsubjecteachconcept,statement,andÞndingtosearchingcritique.InthisspiritIwouldliketopushtheargumentonesmallstepfartherintwoways:Þrst,toabandontheÒrational-actorÓmodelaltogetherandincorporatebothtightmeans-endsthinkingandju-diciousoptimisticimprovisationintoasinglecategoryofÒreasoningÓaboutcomplextrajectoriesovertimeand,second,tosuggestthatmovingevenfartherawayfromconventionalizationofthevariablesatplaymaybringnewaspectsofÒorderingÓoutofapparentrandomness.First,forsocialspacesoutsideoronthemarginsofstateandWesternformaldisciplines,wecanbeill-servedbyconßatingthewaysinwhichindividualsreallythinkun-deravarietyofconditionsandthemodelsofthatthinkingthataredevelopedinordertobuildtheinstitutionstocontainit(inallsensesofthewordÒcontainÓ).Weberhimselfwasclearthatinstitutedrationalitycouldbeanironcage,aconstructthatsanctionedallotherformsofhumanreasoningasitsopposite,Òirrationality.ÓInstitu-tionsareaimedatchannelingbehavior,notreßectingit.Therefore,intryingtoÒcaptureÓtheformsofreasoninginarenaswhereÑforexampleÑsingularactionsaremarkedofffromtrajectoriesandentailments,calculablesanctionsdoswingintoplayautomaticallytoredirectcoursesofaction,andoutcomesareheldupauthor-itativelytothegeneralview,oneneedsatheoryofrea-soningthatcanencompassotherandperhapsoriginalformsofthoseprocesses.ReclaimingreasoningÑwithin-stitutionalizedrationalityasasmallcomponentÑseemstomeaworthyimplicitaimofthepaper.Ifonedoesthat,donewdomainsforenquiryemerge?Oneofthebalefuleffectsofrational-choicesocialscienceisitsconventionalizationofconceptsandvariables.Onechallengethatemergesfromthispaperismorerigorousandimaginativeattentiontopathways.Inthisregard,theauthorcouldgoastepfartherinanethnographyofjudi-ciousopportunismtofocusontherecurrentidea,ex-pressedbyherCamerooniansubjects,ofdeÞnitivemo-mentsorturningsthatinitiateaprocess:thedooropening.Howarethosepresented,recognized,andseizedunderÒroutinizeduncertaintyÓ?Thepresentaccountgivesex-amplesofindeterminatepathwaysthatareprimarilyret-rospective.Butistherealsoacertainpreparationforpros-pection?AretherespeciÞcformsofsocialitythatoptimizetheoccurrenceofpromisingnoveltiesorspiritualorin-tellectualqualitiescultivatedtorecognizepromiseanddanger?Andaretherenewinstitutionsthatriseuptocolonizelife-segmentsandevenentiresequences?Thepaperitselfopensthesedoorsbycuttingthroughsomeoftheironcageofthinkingaboutrationalitywhileremain-ingorientedtopeopleÕscapacityforreasoning.hirokazumiyazakiDepartmentofAnthropology,CornellUniversity,McGrawHall,Ithaca,NY,U.S.A.(hmcornell.edu).10i05Johnson-HanksÕsnuancedexaminationofCameroonianwomenÕsconceptualizationofuncertaintyinlightofWesternphilosophyandstatisticalreasoningiselegant,forceful,andconvincing.HerattentiontoCameroonianwomenÕsfocusonÒgettingbyÓenrichesthecurrentan-thropologicaldebateaboutactorsÕconceptualizationsofagencyanditslimits(see,e.g.,Herzfeld;Keane;Mahmood;Miyazaki).Theim-plicationsofherargumentfortheideaoffamilyplanningandforpopulationstudiesmoregenerallyaresigniÞcant.Shedemonstrateshowethnographerscancontributetopolicy-relevanttechnicalknowledge.Johnson-HanksarguesthatCameroonianwomenex-plicitlyrejectplanningasaviablemethodofapproachingreproductionandtheworldmoregenerallybecausetheyperceivetheworldashavingbecomeextremelyunpre-dictable.TheybelievethattheyÒnolongerÓcanmakeplansandchoicesforthefuture.Instead,theytrytoseizeonwhateveropportunitiesbecomeavailabletothemandÒgetby.ÓJohnson-Hankscallsthismodalityofengage-mentwiththeworldÒjudiciousopportunismÓandarguesthatitchallengessomeofthemostinßuentialtheoriesofactioninWesternphilosophyandsocialtheory.Shecon-traststhesewomenÕsexperienceofuncertaintywiththenotionofuncertaintyunderlyingstatisticalreasoning.UnderlyingthisobservationisJohnson-HanksÕscon- currentanthropologyVolume,Number,JunecernwithwhatIhavetermedthetemporalorientationsofdifferentkindsofanalysis(seeMiyazakiTorephraseherobservationsinmyownterms,bothSchutzÕsandSearleÕsreßectionsonthetemporalsequenceofintentionandaction,ontheonehand,andstatisticiansÕretrospectivelydiscovereduncertainty,ontheother,failtorecoverthereal-timeimmediacyofCameroonianwomenÕssenseofuncertainty.Iwonder,however,ifJohn-son-Hankshasfullyexploredtheimplicationsofthisin-sightforthetemporalityofherownanalysis.Hercritiqueofphilosophyandstatisticsinvitesfurtherquestionsaboutherowndisciplineanditsmethod.Inparticular,IwonderifsheiswillingtoconsiderhowonecanrecapturetheimmediacyofactorsÕsenseoftemporalityinanin-evitablyretrospectiveethnographicdescription.Forex-ample,oneopportunitythatshecouldexploitmorefullyconcernsCameroonianwomenÕssenseofradicalchange.AccordingtoJohnson-Hanks,thesewomeninterpretthecurrentheightenedstateofuncertaintysurroundingtheirlivesasaconsequenceofCameroonÕspoliticalandeco-nomiccrisis.Butwhatisinterestingisthattheirexplicitrejectionofplanningasamodalityofengagementwiththeworldisframedasaresponsetoanewsituation.John-son-HanksisabsolutelyrightinnottakingforgrantedthesewomenÕsinvocationofnewness;sheseesintheircharacterizationofthenatureoftheworldbothcontinuitywithanddiscontinuityfromthewell-documentedBeticonceptionofpersonhoodandtime.However,IwonderifthereissomethingmoretoCameroonianwomenÕsin-sistencethattheworldhaschanged.Inemphasizingthattheycannolongermakeplansandchoicesforthefuture,perhapsthesewomenaredrawingattentiontothefactic-ityofradicalchangeitselfasmuchastherealnessoftheuncertaintyoftheworld.Fromthispointofview,bytreat-ingthediscourseofcrisisasaframingdeviceforthesub-jectofuncertaintyJohnson-HanksmayinadvertentlyhaveerasedtherealityofthesewomenÕsapprehensionofchangeandnewness.Inlightofthecurrentpervasivein-terestinopen-ended,provisional,andemergentformsofanalysisinanthropologyandothersocialsciences(see,e.g.,OngandCollier),itwouldbeinterestingtocon-siderwhatananalysiswouldlooklikeifoneemulatedCameroonianwomenÕsconcernwithÒgettingby.ÓcatriennotermansDepartmentofCulturalAnthropology,RadboudUniversityNijmegen,Comeniuslaan4,6525Nijmegen,TheNetherlands(c.notermans@maw.ru.nl).23xii04IgreatlywelcomeJohnson-HanksÕscriticismoftheuse-fulnessofWesternmodesofanalysisforexplainingwomenÕsreproductivefuturesinCameroon.Duringsev-eralperiodsofÞeldworkineasternCameroonIalsodis-cussedmarriageandmotherhood,andIrecognizethenarrativedimensionofwomenÕsattitudestowardslong-termplanningthatshementions.Ifullysharehercon-cernaboutthedisjuncturesanddiscontinuitiesbetweenqualitativeandquantitativedata;statisticsoftenfailtocapturewomenÕsopinionsandworriesaboutlife.WhereasstatisticswanttotalkÒnumbers,ÓwomenwanttotellÒstoriesÓinwhichnumbersareßexibleandne-gotiable.Thoughthestatisticaltruthmaygivetheim-pressionofÒtellingthesamestory,ÓwomenÕslifecoursesaremuchmoredynamicandopentocreativitythananystatisticsmaydiscern.IagreewithJohnson-HanksthatwomenÕsuncertaintyaboutpossiblefuturesdoesnotmakethempowerless,passive,orincapableofdeÞningtheirfutures.Theydohaveagency,andtheyconstantlymakechoicesinarationalstrategicway;itissimplynotway.Johnson-HanksÕsobjectiveofexplainingwomenÕsun-certainty,however,seemstolackakinshipargumentthatmaycontributetoanunderstandingofthatuncer-tainty.Johnson-HanksgenerallyconnectswomenÕsun-predictablefuturestotheuncertainworldofCameroonattheendofthesandarguesthatpeopleinvoketheeconomiccrisisasanexplanationandexcusefortheambiguityandinsecuritythattheyexperience.Assheadmits,ÒthereisnoevidencethatlifepriortolacrisewasobjectivelymorecertainÓ;thisidiomfordescribinguncertaintyonlypartiallyexplainstheproblemshedis-cusses.Supplementarytoheranalysisoftheinadequa-ciesofamodelofintentionalaction,Iwouldliketofocusnotonlyonthecrisisbutalsoontheimportanceofkin-shipinwomenÕslives.Whereasa(Eurocentric)rational-choicemodelassumespersonstobeautonomousindi-vidualswhoaimatgoalsdeÞnedbyself-interest,inCameroonwomenÕsexperiencesandchoicesarerootedinasocietythatissaturatedwithkinrelationships.TounderstandwomenÕsuncertaintywemustthinkofwomenasÒthesiteofapluralityofrelationshipsÓ(PiotThroughoutmyresearchwomenstatedagainandagainthatfromtheirÞrstmenstruationonwards,rela-tivesneverstoppedemphasizingthatthechildrentheywouldbearinthefuturewouldbenotforthemselvesbutforthewholefamily.Sincethenumberofchildrenwomenwillhavedependsontheagencyandchoicesofrelatives,womenhesitatetoanswerquestionssuchasÒHowmanychildrendoyouplantohave?ÓAwomancanhardlybesureaboutthenumberofchildrenshewillhavetocareforbecauserelativesmayclaimher(bio-logical)childrenasfosterchildrenatunpredictablemo-mentsthroughoutherlife(Notermans).Whenchil-drenareborninmarriage,theymaybeclaimedbytheirmotherÕshusbandandhissistersorbrothers;whentheyarebornoutofwedlock,theymaybeclaimedbytheirmaternalgrandmotherortheirmotherÕsbrothersandsis-tersÒbornfromthesamewomb.ÓThoughwomencancounterbalancethislossofbiologicalchildrenbyclaim-ingfosterchildrenfromtheirbrothersorsisters,theout-comecannotbepredicted,aslifecircumstanceschangeovertime.Amarriedwomanwilljudgethedesirednum-berofchildrendifferentlyfromanunmarriedone.More-over,awomanwithagoodmarriagewilljudgechildnumbersdifferentlyfromonefacingdivorce.Beyondtheinterdependentagencyofwomenandtheirrelatives,conjugalßexibilityalsohastobeconsidered WhentheFutureDecidesinexplainingwomenÕsÒfailureÓtoplantheirfutures.WomenÕslifecoursesareoftencharacterizedbyahighfrequencyofdivorceandasequenceofformalandin-formalmarriages.Selectingandenteringintodifferentrelationshipssimultaneouslyandsuccessivelyindiffer-entstagesoflife,womenattempttopursuetheirbestopportunities.Movingbetweenthehouseholdsofformalhusbands,informalhusbands,mothers,andbrothers,womenlivelikenomadsinawidenetworkofkinre-lationships.Thispostureofopennessofpossibilityen-gendersdifferentattitudestochildnumbersatdifferentmomentsoflife.ComparingethnographicstudiesonwomenÕsrepro-ductivelivesinCamerooncanhelpusunderstandwomenÕslivesandinterprettheirdifferentandoftensur-prisingattitudestowardslife.IwouldliketocontinuethedialoguewithJohnson-Hanks,butweÕllseeÒwhatthefuturedecides.ÓsararandallDepartmentofAnthropology,UniversityCollegeLondon,GowerSt.,LondonWCBT,U.K.10i05Johnson-Hanksistobecongratulatedforthiselegantcombinationofideasemergingfromphilosophy,eth-nography,andstatisticstoinvestigateasubjectthathasbeenthebackboneofmuchdemographicresearchinre-centyearsandthefoundationformuchpolicyandactionbuthascauseduneaseamongstmanydemographers,par-ticularlythosewhocombinequalitativewithquantita-tiveapproaches.Forthoseofusunfamiliarwithphilo-sophicalthoughtthispaperclariÞeswhereouruneasemaylie.Althoughthemanydemographicsurveysonfertilityintentionsandidealfamilysizecomeupwithplausiblenumericaloutcomes,suchnumbersmaynotadequatelyreßecttheresponsesobtainedwithotherre-searchmethodologiesinwhichuncertainty,non-nu-mericalresponses,andevasionaremuchmorefrequent.Johnson-HanksÕsplausiblediscussionsofthereasonsCa-meroonianwomenrespondinsuchwayswillringtruetomanyotherswhoworkinthisÞeldandshouldmakedemographerschallengemanyinternationaldemo-graphicandhealthsurveyÞndings.However,Iwouldhavelikedtoseethisaspecttakenfarther.Hercommentthatmostofhersample(ofwell-educatedCameroonianwomen)providedÒnon-numericÓresponsestoherques-tionsonreproductiveintentionsraisesthequestionwhymostsurveysproducesofewsuchresponses,especiallyforsuchcategoriesofwomen.Howdotheenumeratorsmovefromtheinitialnon-numericalresponsestotherecordednumericalones?Weresuchmovementsevidentintheinterviewswiththeserespondents?Johnson-Hankshonestlyarticulatessomeherownpre-conceptionsbeforeundertakingtheresearchandthecon-sequencesofthesepreconceptionsingeneratingÒsomeextremelyinelegantinterviews.ÓHersubsequentunder-standingandreformulationofwomenÕsresponsesisveryconvincingbutstilldependssubstantiallyonacceptingthearticulatedresponsesfromsuchinterviews(whetherinelegantorelegant)asrepresentingwomenÕsexperi-encesandtheirjudiciousopportunism.Whilenotde-nyingtheplausibilityofherinterpretation,itwouldbeusefultohavemorediscussionoftheforcesinßuencingÒhowtheyelecttopresenttheirthoughtsinaninter-viewÓandthustheconclusionsthatcanbedrawn.ToadegreethisisconfrontedthroughcontrastingtheCa-meroonianpracticeofreferringtofuturetrajectoriesus-ingpotentialtitleswithCastleÕsworkinMali,whichsuggestedthatinvokingfutureeventsmayincurwitch-craftorsorcerypenalties.Thestakesareverydifferent,however:referringtoothersÕfuturesthroughtitlesposeslowriskstotheindividualrespondentcomparedwiththoseinvokedbyintimatingplansforoneÕsown(andoneÕschildrenÕs)future.DifÞcultiesinacceptingstate-mentsaboutfuturereproductiveplansatfacevaluearecompoundedelsewhereinMuslimAfrica(SenegalandMali,forexample)bystrongsocialsanctionsagainstchallengingdivinewillwithrespecttogivingchildren.Fearofcrossingsuchboundariescaninhibitpeoplefromexpressinganyideaswhichsuggestsuchforwardplan-ning:ininterviewcontextsitcanbeextremelydifÞculttointerpretsilenceÑtodifferentiateideaswhichhaveneverbeenthoughtfromthosewhichshouldnotbeex-pressed.Thereiscertainlyevidenceelsewhereinthepa-perthatsimilarassociationsbetweendivinewillandchildbearingoperateinCameroon,andthereforeitisessentialtoconsidertheevasiveanswerstofertility-planningquestionsnotjustintermsofuncertaintybutalsointermsoftherespondent-interviewerrelationshipandtheacceptabilityofpubliclystatingprivatediannaj.shandyDepartmentofAnthropology,MacalesterCollege,CarnegieHall04,1600GrandAve.,St.Paul,MN,U.S.A.(shandy@macalester.edu).11i05ThispaperadvancesthenotionofÒjudiciousopportun-ismÓtoexplainsocialactionunderconditionsofuncer-taintyincontemporaryAfrica.ItissigniÞcantinpro-vidingameansoftheorizingsocialactioninAfricansettingsinwaysthatavoidwhatMudimbe()iden-tiÞesastheideologicalconstructionofAfricaandAf-ricansaspronetodecisionsbasedonemotionorreactionratherthanonrationality,objectivity,orlong-termplan-Takingthemismatchbetweenastandardizeddemo-graphicsurveyquestionandCameroonianwomenÕsre-sponsesasapointofdeparture,Johnson-Hanksmountsaneffectivechallengetoadominantmodelinreproduc-tive-policycirclesandexposesthefutilityofinterna-tionalaidagenciesÕquesttoelicitÒthereproductivein-tentionsofwomeninpoorcountries.ÓShemakesacompellingcasethatthelimitedandlimitingquestionofhowmanychildrenawomanplanstohavefallsshortofapprehendingthecomplexsocial,political,andeco-nomicrealitiesthatinformreproductiveoutcomes. currentanthropologyVolume,Number,JuneThepaperisambitiousinitsattempttochartques-tionsofaspirationsandattitudesasethnographicterrain.IrecallbeingtoldingraduateschoolthatÒanthropolo-gistsdonÕtdoattitudesÓÑthatethnographerswerebetterpositionedtoobservewhatpeopledothantospeculateabouttheirfutures.And,indeed,thereistruthinthis.Yet,intheÞeld,ethnographersencounterthefulltem-poralrangeofinformantsÕpasts,presents,andhopesforthefuture.Particularlyforthoseinappliedorpolicyset-tings,attentiontoplansforthefutureisvital.Bycou-plingethnographicanddemographicdatawithsocialtheorypertainingtointention,action,andoutcome,Johnson-Hankscarvesoutstimulatinganalyticalspaceforwide-rangingcomparativeinquirythatprovidesamodelforunderstandingpresentactionasitrelatestofutureintentions.Thatsaid,itisworthwhiletoquestionthechoiceofreproductiveactionasÒaparticularlyappropriatelocusÓforthestudyofintentionalityanditslimits.WhenIdidamentalsurveyofhowtheWestern,educatedwomenintheirthirtiesofmyownsocialnetworkwhohaveexperiencedthegamutofchallengestoreproductiveas-pirations(e.g.,miscarriages,stillbirths,lackofapartnerandatickingbiologicalclock)wouldrespondtoaques-tionaboutintendedfamilysize,IconcludedthatJohn-son-HanksÕsnotionofallowingthefuturetodecideis,perhaps,notuniquetothecontemporaryCameroon.Atleastofequalweight,itseems,iswhatappearsinthearticleasasubsidiarysupportingexampleaboutsimilardynamicsofuncertaintyregardingpost-secondary-schoolaspirations.Whiletheauthorstatesthatgenderedactionisnotanexplicitaimofthispaper,itseemstobetheelephantintheroomwhensheisdiscussingparallel(butinhercasesnotintersecting)examplesoffertilityandeducationinAfrica.Thisseemsparticularlyimportantinthecaseofsuchaselectsample(whereoneinsixpersonsÞnishesschool).Johnson-Hankspointsoutthateducationalachievementispredicatedontwovariables,mobilizingÞnancialresourcesandlearningunderchallengingcir-cumstances.Shefailstonotetheimportanceofman-agingfertilityinthepursuitofeducationalachievementinAfricansettings.Thereaderislefttowonderhowandwhengenderbecomesexplanatoryinsuchanexplorationofsocialaction.Ultimately,theargumentseemstohingeonthenotionthatitistheunpredictabilityofthestructuralconditionsinwhichtheseyoungwomenlivethatinformstheirresponsetoquestionsabouttheirfutures,includingfam-ilysize.Johnson-HanksmakesanintriguingpointabouttherelativedegreeofuncertaintyinthelivesofyoungCameroonianwomen,inwhichÒcommonthingseludestandardization.ÓWhilesheisatpainstoavoidadi-chotomybetweenhereandthere,Iponderedwhatim-pactinterviewswithBetiwomenlivingintheWestwouldhaveontheanalysis.Wouldweexpectthehigherdegreeofcertaintyaboutquotidianlifetotranslateintomoredecisiveplansforthefuture?OristhereaculturalelementtoarticulatingafuturetrajectorythatJohnson-HanksÕsargumentdoesnotconsider?Forinstance,atseveralpointsÒGodÓandÒtheHolySpiritÓemergeaspivotalentitiesinthesewomenÕsviewsoftheirunfold-ingfutures.Wedonothaveenoughethnographiccon-textualizationtoevaluatethesigniÞcanceoftheseref-erences,buttheydoraisequestionsabouttheextenttowhichthesewomenÕsperceptionofthefuturecanbeexplainedstrictlyintermsoftheenvironmentinwhichtheycurrentlylive.ThisisaverystimulatingarticlethatshowcasesamodelforanthropologicalinquirytomakespeciÞccon-tributionswhendirectedsurveyquestionsdead-end.Themodelfortheorizingsocialactionthatitadvanceswillprovevaluableinmyriadsettings.jenniferjohnson-hanksBerkeley,Calif.,U.S.A.28i05Iamgratefultothecommentatorsfortheirgenerousandastuteresponses,criticisms,andsuggestionsforfurtherwork.Inparticular,IappreciatetheproposalsÑpresentinnearlyallthecommentsÑforspeciÞcextensionsofmytheoreticalframeworktoothercases.BothCaldwellandShandyaskwhetherjudiciousop-portunismdoesnotalsodescribesocialactionintherichWest,thatis,towhatdegreetheanalysishereisspeciÞctoCameroonincrisis.Thefactthattheycometoop-positeconclusionsisevidencethatthequestionisbothfundamentalandverydifÞcult.Myposition,arguedhereandelsewhere(,n.d.),isthatactionundertheprincipleofjudiciousopportunismoccurseverywhereandamongpeopleofallkindsofbackgroundsÑinotherwords,thatthemodelofrational,strategic,intentionalactionisinadequateevenforexplainingactionhere.Atthesametime,judiciousopportunismismorecommoninsouthernCameroonthanintheWestforthreerelatedreasons.First,theWesthasmorenumerousandmoreeffectiveinstitutionsthatservetoreduceuncertainty:themoneysupplyisstable,publictransitmostlyworks,mortalityandmorbidityarelowandconcentratedattheendoflife,thecourtsenforcelegalcontracts,andsoon.Judiciousopportunismisthussimplylessnecessary.Sec-ond,peopleintheWestarehabituatedtothisrelativelycertainstateofaffairs:throughrecurrentexperiencewehavebeeninculcatedwiththeexpectationthatourac-tionswillbeefÞcaciousandwiththedispositiontoactwithintention.AlthoughinspeciÞccontextspeopleintheWestcertainlydoengageinjudiciousopportunism,waitingtoseewhatpossibilitieswilldevelopandthenquicklygraspingtheonesthatseempromising,wehavelearnedtobeinclinedtoactotherwise.Third,explicitintentionsandintentionalactionarerepresentedandculturallyelaborateddifferentlyinsouthernCameroonthanintheWest.AsbothRandallandShandypercep-tivelysuggest,insomecontextsBetiwouldconsiderÞrmintentionsatleastmorallyambivalent,ifnotoutright WhentheFutureDecideshubris.Actionundertheprincipleofjudiciousoppor-tunismisthereforeneitherauniversal,rationalresponsetouncertaintynoraculturalpeculiaritybutasocialprac-ticebothgroundedinmaterialconditionsandvariablyculturallyelaborated.Caldwellpointsoutthatsurveyquestionsonfertility,badastheymaybe,nonethelesstendtopredictfertilityreasonablywell.Attheaggregatelevel,heiscorrect.Somedozenpapershavenowassessedthedegreetowhichreproductiveintentionspredictsubsequentbe-haviors(e.g.,Dasilva;MillerandPasta;Mor-;NairandChow;Schoenetal.TanandTey;Vlassoff;WestoffandRyder).Theresultsofthesestudieshavebeenmixed,buttheoneconsistentÞndingisthatthepopulationaveragescorrespondfarbetterthantheindividual-leveldata.Da-silva()foundthatnearly%ofwomeninaSriLankansurveyhadoutcomesdiscrepantwiththeirstatedintentionsjustthreeyearslater.InTaiwan,NairandChow()foundthatover%ofthecoupleswantingnomorechildrendidindeedbearachildinthethree-yearintervalbetweentheÞrstandsecondsurveys.Vlassoff()foundnorelationshipbetweenIndianwomenÕsreporteddesiredfamilysizeandtheirfertilitytenyearslater.Althoughtheaverageintentioninapop-ulationcorrespondswelltotheaveragereproductiveout-come,forethnographyandespeciallyforasocialtheoryofreasoningpopulationaveragesareinadequate.Indi-vidualsmatter.DenniscorrectlypointsoutthatSchutzdoesnotrep-resenttheviewsofcontemporary,moreethnographicallyinclinedphenomenologistsanymorethanSearlerepre-sentsallphilosophersofmind.Iusetheirworknone-thelessbecauseitismasterful,compelling,andwidelycited.Herreferencesprovidethought-provokingalter-nativesthatIwelcome.GuyerandMiyazakibothcallforpushingtheanalysisfarther,ifindifferentdirections.IamfullyinaccordwithGuyerthatthelong-runaimmustbetobreakfreeofrational-choicemodelsaltogetherandthataricheth-nographyofreasoningwouldbeapromisingwaytodoso.IfinthispaperIamstillbattlingwithrationalchoice,itisbecauseIamconvincedthattheonlywaytosup-plantsuchpowerfulanalyticparadigmsisbyshowingwheretheyfail.GuyerÕssecondproposal,thatwemorecloselyexaminetheÒpreparationforprospectionÓandtheÒformsofsocialitythatoptimizetheoccurrenceofpromisingnovelties,Óisevenmoreexcitingbecausemoreradicallynew.ItalsocombinesproductivelywithMiyazakiÕsthoughtfulcritiqueofthetemporalityoftheanalysisandwritingitself.Here,bothGuyerandMi-yazakiaskhowwecanthinkofanethnographythatisnotalwaysthoughtbackwards,alwaysrepresentingpastevents,experiences,andorganizations.TheirconcernisparticularlyrelevantforsouthernCameroon,wherein-novationhaslongbeenvalued(seeGuyer,GuyerandEnoBelinga),andtheÒfacticityofradicalchangeÓthatMiyazakinotesisindeedimportant.Ihavethoughtofvitalconjunctures(developedinmyforth-comingbook)asapartialsolutiontothisproblem;how-ever,evenvitalconjunctureshavetobewrittenandan-alyzedafterthefact,sothetemporalproblemremains.Notermansinsightfullycallsattentiontokinshipandespeciallytofosterageandconjugalßexibilityasaddi-tionalimportantsourcesofuncertaintyforwomeninCameroon.Sheisofcourseentirelyright,andamoreexhaustiveanalysiswouldhavetoexploretherolesofkinshipbothincreatinguncertaintyandasaresourceformanagingit.Oneprovocativeplacetoexplorethisinsightmightbethechanginginstitutionalformsofmar-riage.SomeeventsthatinthepastweresigniÞcant,rit-ualizedtransitionsinthesocialrecognitionofaunionhaveallbutdisappeared,andnewoneshavedeveloped.Howdotheseemergentsocialformsrelatetotheun-certaintyofthecrisis?ItisaquestionthatIlookforwardtoexploring.Randalldrawsattentiontothemethodologicalprob-lemsofinterviewingandquestionsthetransparencyofinterviewanswers.Sheperceptivelyfocusesonhowin-terviewsunfoldassocialinteractionsandonculturalrepresentationsaboutwhatshouldandshouldnotbesaidassourcesofbiasorerrorininterviews.Andofcoursesheisrightthatbothofthesematterverymuch.WhenIwasworkingwithresearchassistants,wefoundthatwomenwhomIinterviewedwerefarmorelikelytore-porthavinghadanabortionthanwomeninterviewedbymyCameroonianassistants.Severaltimes,asIgottoknowwomenwhomIhadinterviewedbetter,Ilearnedofimportantthingsthattheyhadneglectedtomentionintheinterview.Thesearebothexamplesofthesitua-tionsthatRandall,Ithink,hasinmind.Thecentralquestion,however,iswhethertheunÞxityofintentionalprojectsdissolvesoncethesemethodologicalproblemsareconsidered.Onthebasisofparticipantobservationinavarietyofsettings,Icansaythatitdoesnot.RandallandIagreeontheneedforconstant,skepticalevaluationofoursourcesofevidence;weperhapsdisagreeontheuniversalityandimportanceofÞxed,privateintentions.Finally,ShandysuggeststhatreproductionistooeasyamarkforacritiqueofintentionalactionanditslimitsandthatWesternwomenfacingtheÒgamutofchallengestoreproductiveaspirationsÓmightwellengageinjudi-ciousopportunisminjustthesameway.Iagreewithherthatreproductiontendstoproduceuncertainty.Repro-ductiveeventsÑfromunintendedpregnancytomiscar-riagetoadiagnosisofinfertilityÑopenupvitalcon-junctures,periodsinwhichawiderangeoffuturesispossibleandthereisnoclearpathforward.Duringvitalconjunctures,actionundertheprincipleofjudiciousop-portunismmaybetheonlyalternative.However,repro-ductionisfarfromtheonlydomaininwhichvitalcon-juncturesemerge.Completingschool,gettingill,movingacrossthecountryÑallofthesemaygeneratesimilarkindsofuncertaintyandopenhorizons.Reproductivepracticeoffersacompellinglocusforthestudyofun-certaintyandintentionsbecauseitisuniversal,funda-mental,andhighlyvariable. 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