based management Why do we need it Reason 1 Mounting criticism Staff in the private and public sectors are addressed on a daily basis in a language which does not express their own specific reality but the makebelieve world of managers This makebelieve world is dominated by objective ID: 250248
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Slide1
Evidence-based management:Why do we need it?Slide2
Reason 1: Mounting criticism”Staff
in the private and public sectors are addressed on a daily basis in a language which does not express their own specific reality but the make-believe world of managers. This make-believe world is dominated by objectives couched and repeated in a theatrical rhetoric: top quality, excellence and continuous innovation
”
Managers have to endure a great deal of criticism from various directions. Misuse of the position of power to one's own benefit, failure and mismanagement are the charges most commonly heard. Slide3
Trust me, I’m a manager.Slide4
Reason 2: Accountability
As a result of this increasing social pressure there is an external drive for transparency which fosters an upheaval for ‘objective opinion’ and even ‘objective evidence’.
Slide5
Half of what you learn will be shown to be either dead wrong or out-of-date within 7 years of your graduation; the trouble is that nobody can tell you which half
Reason 3: false
informationSlide6
Incompetent
people benefit more from feedback than highly competent people.
Task
conflict improves work group performance while relational conflict harms it.
Encouraging employees to participate in decision making is more effective for improving organizational performance than setting performance goals.
True or false?Slide7
How evidence-based are managers?
959 (US) + 626 (Dutch) HR professionals
35 statements, based on an extensive body of evidence
true / false / uncertain
On
average:
35%
- 57% correct
HR
Professionals' beliefs about effective human resource practices: correspondence between research and
practice, (
Rynes
et al, 2002, Sanders et al 2008)Slide8
5 years? 7 years? 10 years?
Reason 4: half time value of knowledgeSlide9
Evidence-based practice movements abound in medicine, education, and public policyManagement research from psychology, engineering, operations research yields 1000s of studies annually
Internet (scholar.google.com) gives ready access
Innovative companies now hiring “chief evidence officers”
Public demands accountability (quality decisions that are defensible)
Reason 5: The
ZeitgeistSlide10
But the MAIN reason is .....Slide11
Bounded rationality Slide12
Bounded rationality
System 1
Fast
Intuitive, associative
heuristics & biases
System 2
Slow (lazy)
Deliberate, ‘reasoning’
RationalSlide13
Bounded rationality
limbic system and brainstem
(
system 1)
neo cortex
(
system 2)Slide14
Systeem 1: necessary to surviveSlide15
Seeing order in randomnessMental corner cutting
Misinterpretation of incomplete data
Halo effect
False consensus effect
Group think
Self serving bias
Sunk cost fallacy
Cognitive dissonance reduction
System 1: very prone to biases
Confirmation bias
Authority bias
Small numbers fallacy
In-group bias
Recall bias
Anchoring bias
Inaccurate covariation detection
Distortions due to plausibilitySlide16
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Managers and consultants hold many erroneous beliefs, not because they are ignorant or stupid, but because they seem to be the most sensible conclusion consistent with their own professional experience!
(system 1 will always engage!)Slide17
“The first principle is that
you
must
not fool
yourself
-
and
you
are the
easiest
person
to
fool”.
Richard FeynmanSlide18
I’ve been studying intuition for 45 years, and I’m no better than when I started. I make extreme predictions. I’m over-confident. I fall for every one of the biases.”
Bounded rationality Slide19
Developing expert skill and intuition A sufficiently regular, predictable environment
Opportunities to learn regularities through prolonged practice and feedback
The
management domain is not highly
favorable
to
expert skill and intuition!Slide20
“It’s hard to tell the signal from the noise. The story the data tell us is often the one we’d like to hear, and we usually make sure it has a happy ending.It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise.”
Nate Silver
EBP is about the signal and the noise Slide21
EBMgt Overcomes Limits of Unaided Decisions
Bounded Rationality
The Small Numbers Problem of Individual Experience
Prone to See Patterns Even in Random Data
Critical Thinking
Decision Supports
Research
Large Ns > individual experience
Controls reduce bias
The “Human” Problem
Evidence-Based Practice