and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig Germany ICNS 2012 24 th 26 th April 2012 wwwDLRde Chart ID: 816749
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Slide1
Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas
Gunnar SchwochDLR Institute of Flight GuidanceBraunschweig, GermanyICNS 201224th – 26th April 2012
www.DLR.de • Chart 1
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements
and
Costs
of
4D ATM in High
Density
Terminal Areas
•
26th April 2012
Slide2UtopiaMore efficient
procedures than holdings/trombones desired4D trajectories with direct routing to increase efficiency
High density TMAs pose a challenge to prediction and complianceResearch starts with Utopia: Ideal scenario No uncertainties Direct routing (two merge points
only
)
Upper bounds for efficiency gain What are the challenges?
www.DLR.de • Chart 2
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements
and
Costs
of
4D ATM in High
Density
Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Slide3Preliminary CondiserationsGround Side Trajectory Predictions
Initial trajectory prediction based on aircraft model, atmosphere and weather forecastExample: Airbus A320 trajectory, 67 t TOM,
using BADA 3.9Flight altitude (FL)Ground speedCASMach * 100
www.DLR.de • Chart
3
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Slide4Preliminary CondiserationsGround Side Trajectory Predictions
Error in trajectory prediction requires compensation measuresInfluence on flight time with errors in specific parameters 200 NM
before touchdown (Airbus A320 BADA model):
www.DLR.de • Chart
4
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High
Density
Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Error in aircraft specific parameter
Difference in flight time
mass: +/- 5%
+3.9s/-4.5s
thrust: +/- 10%
+0.6s/-0.6s
drag: +/- 10%
-20.3s/+24.8s
Slide5Preliminary CondiserationsGround Side Trajectory Predictions
Variability of the arrival time (Airbus A320 BADA model)„Snapshot“ of the aircraft‘s possibilities at 200 NM from
touchdownRange approx. -105 s (high speed) to +165 s (low speed)
www.DLR.de • Chart
5
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High
Density
Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Slide6Scenario DesignBased on an actual busy day
of real trafficAll scenarios contain 1377 identical flightsThree runways (one for
departures only)Two „families“ of scenarios are created:Conventional scenario family as a „lower bound“ for efficiency measuringUtopia scenario family with
(
nearly
)
direct routing
www.DLR.de • Chart 6
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements
and
Costs
of
4D ATM in High
Density
Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Slide7Scenario DesignScenario Family ConventionalBased on today‘s departure
and approach patterns: SIDs/STARs Guidance along trombone (downwind-upwind legs)
Variance in length of tromboneShortest possibleTypicalLongest possibleConflict-free baseline scenario
www.DLR.de • Chart
7
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements
and
Costs
of
4D ATM in High
Density
Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Slide8Scenario DesignScenario Family UtopiaDirect routing with as
few waypoints as possibleArrivals: Great circle routes from airport
of origin to one of two merge points, Continuous Descent ApproachAssignment of merge point depending on location of airport
of
origin
www.DLR.de • Chart
8
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements
and
Costs
of
4D ATM in High
Density
Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Slide9Scenario DesignScenario Family UtopiaDirect routing with as
few waypoints as possibleDepartures: Small straight segment for take-off,
great circle route to destination airport, Continuous Climb DepartureNo additional requirements
www.DLR.de • Chart
9
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements
and
Costs
of
4D ATM in High
Density
Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
departures
Slide10Scenario DesignScenario Family UtopiaBasic Utopia:Runway threshold times
as the only time constraintFlights are separated at thresholdFixed sequence since TOD
What kind of disturbances can be compensated? What measures are necessary?
www.DLR.de • Chart
10
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements
and
Costs
of
4D ATM in High
Density
Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Slide11Scenario DesignAssessment methodIndicators are:
Average flight timeLonger flight times indicate delayAverage flight path length
Longer flight paths indicate higher fuel consumptionAverage model fuel consumptionBased on BADA 3.9Number of trajectory planning conflicts-> Safety KPASimulation
tool
: TrafficSim (DLR)
www.DLR.de • Chart
11
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements
and
Costs
of
4D ATM in High
Density
Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Slide12Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict
Detection
www.DLR.de • Chart 12
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements
and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012Definition of a conflict in this scope:Lateral separation of less than 3.0 NM andVertical separation
of
Less
than
1000
ft
(cruise)
Less
than
3000 ft (
at
least
one
A/C
climbing
/
descending
)
Values
for
experimental
purposes
only
!
Gained
data
:
Conflict
area
(4D
positions
of
aircraft
at
begin
/end
of conflict)
Slide13Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict
Detection
www.DLR.de • Chart 13
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements
and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012Detection by type of conflict:Arrival-arrival conflict/ Departure-departure conflictRare in this scenario
(
sequence
building
)
If
any
:
S
olved
by
sequence
change
or
slight
time
modification
Arrival-
departure
conflict
Majority
of
conflicts
as
a
result
of
crossing
tracks
Different
resolution
strategies
Slide14Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict Resolution
www.DLR.de • Chart
14
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements and Costs of
4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012Conflict Resolution by constraining departuresClimb procedure is interrupted by level segment below conflict areaLateral border:
Conflict
area
Vertical
border
:
Lowest
altitude
of
both
aircraft
within
conflict
area
Slide15Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict
Resolution
www.DLR.de • Chart 15
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements
and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012Conflict Resolution by constraining arrivals Strategy 1 (V1)Arriving aircraft‘s descent profile is modified
to
stay
above
the
conflict
area
C
onflict
area
is
avoided
by
interrupting
descent
and flying
a
level
segment
Lateral
path
stretching
manoeuvre
becomes
necessary
as
aircraft
has
passed its TOD New conflicts
at
merge
points
may
be
induced
Slide16Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict
Resolution
www.DLR.de • Chart 16
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements
and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012Conflict Resolution by constraining arrivals Strategy 2 (V2)Arriving aircraft‘s descent profile is altered to
stay
below
the
conflict
area
Top
of
Descent
has
to
be
moved
No
lateral route
change
No
further
conflicts
are
induced
Slide17Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict
Resolution
www.DLR.de • Chart 17
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements
and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012Conflict Resolution by constraining arrivals Top of Descent comparisonV1 leaves TOD (nearly) intactCDA
passes
through
conflict
area
V2
moves
TOD
by
approx
. 20 NM
Slide18Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict
Resolution
www.DLR.de • Chart 18
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements and
Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012Conflict Resolution by constraining arrivals Top of Descent comparisonV1 leaves TOD (nearly) intactCDA passes
through
conflict
area
V2
moves
TOD
by
approx
. 20 NM
Slide19Conflict Detection and ResolutionCreating the conflict-free scenario
Utopia
www.DLR.de • Chart 19
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements and
Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012Example scenario Utopia with 1377 flights76 conflicts detectedAutomatic conflict resolution applied
Kind of Conflict
Iteration no. and Resolution action
Dep-Arr
Dep-Dep
Arr-Arr
New conflicts
Scenario
Utopia
(0) Original scenario
68
8
0
n/a
(1) Departure level segment
14
7
0
5
(2) Arrival TOD
modification (V2)
1
7
0
0
(3) Manual sequence change
1
0
0
0
(
4) Manual conflict
resolution
Scenario
Utopia
deconf
0
0
0
0
Slide20ResultsUtopia vs. Conventional scenario
www.DLR.de • Chart
20
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High
Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012Results for travel times and BADA fuel usageConflict resolution has a very small influenceMost gains in last 40 NM
Per
Arrival
200 NM
to THR
40
NM
to THR
Flight time [s]
BADA
fuel [kg]
Flight time [s]
BADA fuel [kg]
Utopia
2177
1264
809
319
Utopia
deconf
2179
1265
810
322
Conv. short
2536
1521
1059
520
Conv. medium
2645
1605
1167
604
Conv. long
2990
1860
1516
844
Slide21ResultsUtopia vs. Conventional scenario
www.DLR.de • Chart
21
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High
Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012Results for travel times and BADA fuel usageConflict resolution has a very small influenceDeparture gains smaller: Controllability is on the
ground
Per
Departure
THR to 40 NM
THR to 200 NM
Flight time [s]
BADA
fuel [kg]
Flight time [s]
BADA fuel [kg]
Utopia
545
1271
1878
3067
Utopia
deconf
546
1264
1882
3070
Conv.
549
1286
1950
3155
Slide22Conclusions
www.DLR.de • Chart
22
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Laboratory environment for estimation of costs/requirements establishedConflict-free scenario Utopia possible withLittle costNo lateral re-routing
Slide23Conclusions
www.DLR.de • Chart
23
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Laboratory environment for estimation of costs/requirements establishedConflict-free scenario Utopia possible withLittle costNo lateral re-routingbutPrecise
trajectory
prediction
necessary
:
deconfliction
starts
before
TOD
Separation
criteria
are
a mix
of
used
and
expected
values
Used
model
environment:No
wind,
standard
atmosphere
100%
equipped
aircraft
Slide24Future work
www.DLR.de • Chart
24
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Situation dependent conflict resolutionVariation of separation minimaIntroduction of weather (forecasted and actual)Inclusion of Overflights Traffic to/from
surrounding
airports
Slide25Thank you!
www.DLR.de • Chart
25
• ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch •
Estimating
Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Questions?