and irrigation technology d ecisions what are the future regional hydrological impacts Michael Brady and Jon Yoder Bioearth Integration Seminar Research QuestionsIdeas How do previous decisions constrain changes in crop and irrigation technologies ID: 612434
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Crop choice" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1
Crop choice and irrigation technology decisions: what are the future regional hydrological impacts?
Michael Brady and Jon Yoder
Bioearth
Integration SeminarSlide2
Research Questions/IdeasHow do previous decisions constrain changes in crop and irrigation technologies?
What is the impact of changes in cropping patterns on consumptive use via irrigation technology?
What is the impact of increased water scarcity on crop choice?
Forecast 10, 20, or 30 years ahead the effect of changes in food market conditions (e.g. prices, trade) on water scarcity in the Yakima Basin. Slide3Slide4
Direction of effect goes both waysMore rapid crop change may increase consumptive use because it allows producers to change their irrigation delivery system (technology).
Relative Crop
Prices
Crop
Change
Irrigation
Change
Increase
Consumptive Use
Increased water scarcity increases the return from investing in more efficient irrigation systems and less water intensive crops.
Less
Water
Increase
Consumptive
UseIrrigation
ChangeCrop
Change (perhaps)Slide5
Previous ResearchA lot of work done in California, but also in the Great Plains (fewer crop choices).
Aggregate data:
Higher water cost increases the likelihood of adopting more efficient irrigation technology (Caswell and
Zilberman
, 1985).
Land quality influences technology choice to a greater extent than water cost (
Negri
and Brooks, 1990).
Field-level, single cross-section:
Assuming technology choice is conditional on crop choice, Green and
Sunding
(1997) find that the relative influence of land quality and water cost varies by perennial crop type.
Field-level, panel data set:
Moreno and
Sunding
(2005) estimate a model that allows them to drop the sequential assumption. Results point towards financial drivers for increased water use efficiency as the dominant factor.
Kandouri
et al. (2006) introduce uncertainty over water availability in drought years into decision making. Studying farmers in Crete, find that risk management is important factor influencing irrigation technology choice.
**I have not found an example of an empirical economic analysis linked with an engineering model to forecast basin-wide hydrological impacts of increased consumptive use driven by economic factors (relative profitability of each crop and return on investment in more efficient irrigation system). Slide6
Construction of field-level panel data set for the Yakima Basin from 2007 to 2011 using the WSDA data Slide7Slide8
Year t+1
Field Boundary (red)
Year t
F
ield Boundary (black)
Year t+1
Field Centroid (red)
Panel is created by spatially joining points in
year t+1
with polygons in
year t
because field boundaries change over time.Slide9
Total Acres
% by crop group
Center pivot
Drip
Rill
Sprinkler
Wheel line
Cereal Grain
49,899
20%
25%
0%
59%
1%
14%
Hay/Silage
41,396
16%
33%
0%
7%11%49%Herb33,58413%0%61%29%1%9%Orchard73,80829%0%7%2%92%0%Vegetable12,8305%27%9%52%3%10%Vineyard40,66816%0%37%29%35%0%% by technology 12%16%24%35%13%
Total Acres% by crop groupCenter pivotDripRillSprinklerWheel lineCereal Grain66,50123%36%2%47%2%13%Hay/Silage40,56414%37%0%5%12%45%Herb37,92013%2%74%16%0%9%Orchard67,33223%0%7%1%92%0%Vegetable11,3724%26%22%40%3%9%Vineyard38,59813%0%45%16%39%0%% by technology 16%20%19%32%12%
Irrigation acreage share by crop group and irrigation technology for 2007
Irrigation acreage share by crop group and irrigation technology for 2011
For perennials, increase in vineyards and decrease in orchards.
Much greater share of cereal grains irrigated by center pivot and less using rill.
Orchard irrigation stayed the sum, BUT orchard acreage shrank.
Greater share of vineyards irrigated by drip versus sprinkler because new ground was planted in vineyards. Slide10
Irrigation technology
Crop Group
Same
Different
Total
Same
9,435
699
10,134
71%
5%
Different
2,461
669
3,130
19%
5%
Total
11,896
1,368
13,264Crop group and irrigation technology adoption by observation (field, not area).13,264 observations is the number of fields that were resampled from 2008 to 2011 where 2007 is the first year with data.Almost 30% changed either crop or technology.As expected, change in cropping more common than irrigation. 10% change in irrigation which could be significant over time.Slide11
Irrigation technology transitions
Transitioned into
Transitioned out of
Center
pivot
Drip
Rill
Sprinkler
Wheel Line
Total
Center pivot
842
4
16
710879Drip81,8785874122,030Rill682312,518191953,103Sprinkler131961005,455715,835Wheel Line375767531,2031,417Total9682,3662,7595,7801,39113,264
Net change89336-344-55-26 Slide12
Net change in crop group and irrigation technology combinations (positive changes in red).
Center pivot
Drip
Rill
Sprinkler
Wheel line
Cereal Grain
106
24
21
6
16
Hay/Silage
16
0
-48
-30
-83
Herb
5
203-80-112Orchard0132-227-2Vegetable-2631-799-8Vineyard164-153292Slide13Slide14Slide15
Moving forward...Finish empirical economic analysis of historical data (possibly one paper).
Estimate influence of crop prices, growing conditions, and other factors on choice.
Forecast basin-wide hydrological impacts of future changes in cropping and irrigation technology (integrated economics-
CropSyst
/VIC).
Forecast future crop/irrigation pattern as a function of future prices and water scarcity.