Insights and Trends in the Global STM Market STM Annual Spring Confere - PDF document

Insights and Trends in the Global STM Market STM Annual Spring ConferenceWashington DC27 April 2011David BousfieldLead Analyst STMdbousfield@outsellinc.com © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. About OutsellWe help the world’s publishers, information providers, and enterprise marketers, grow revenuedeliver superior solutionsoptimize their clients’ performance, and thrive in a fastchanging global digital market. And we do it with wow. © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. OverviewTrends and challenges in the STM marketplaceHow changes in user information needs and behavioraffect the STM marketplace New product strategies being pursued by major STM publishers © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. STM Market Trends Overall Growth Reduced Source: Outsell Research © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. STM Market Trends Growth By Subsegment Variable Source: Outsell Research © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. STM Market Trends Big Three Growth By Product Type and Market USD millionsScience & TechnologySizeGrowthJournalsReference & educationDatabases & toolsHealthcareJournalsReference & educationPharma marketingPharma intelligenceDecision support toolsMedical analytics Source: Outsell Research © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. STM Market TrendsWKHealthAcquire And Infill StrategySource: Outsell Research ParentCompany/ProductWorkflow Wolters Kluwer Pharmacy OneSource Sentri7 Analytics Wolters KluwerUpToDate CDS Wolters KluwerMedi-SpanCDS Wolters KluwerFacts & ComparisonsCDS Wolters KluwerMedicomCDS (China) Wolters KluwerProvation MedicalContent integration Wolters Kluwer Provation Order Sets CDS © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. STM Market Trends Changes In End User BehaviourAcademic, medical and industrial (R&D, engineering, manufacturing): 1780 respondents, 2006 presentBarriers to content access, not enough time, too much information. Cost as an issue now ranked 2nd or 3rd.Then and now: conference proceedings have become much less important over timeInfo needs: access to more journals, competitor information, integration of related content types Demand for printed products still high Source: Outsell STM User Survey 2011 © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Penetration of handheld devices high: MDs 91%, others ca Main reason for mobile use: saves timeDemand for apps: current awareness, education, healthcare professional needsSocial networking for work: LinkedIn, industry��academeSource: Outsell STM User Survey 2011STM Market Trends End User Behaviour © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Traditional STM Markets Stagnate All NA AP EU Source: PCG annual reportsJournals © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Perceptions of Value Are ChangingSince 1989, prices for US society journals have increased 7.4% on average annually. (Allen Press)The influence of faculty is relatively unimportant when making purchasing decisions regarding “big deals”. (ALPSP survey)The primary factor impacting publisher pricing over the next several years will be how the “big deal” fares when challenged by prolonged budget weakness and the rise of usagebased tools to assist in determining the value of serial subscriptions at the title or collection level. (EBSCO) © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Value Will Increasingly Be Metric BasedImpact FactorWellestablished, easily understood, and acceptedEndorsed by funding agencies and researchersCOUNTER Usage FactorJournal/book usagebased alternative perspectiveReflects value of journals to all categories of userEasy to understandPIRUS (Publisher and Institutional Repository Usage Statistics) COUNTERcompliant usage reports at the article levelWill enable the usage of individual research outputs to be measuredORCID (Open Researcher and Contributor ID)Central registry of identifiers from individual researchersWill enable aggregation of multiple forms of research output © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Outsell ResearchIn a Metrics World, Will Volume Be Enough? © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Will OA Change This PLoSONE, et al. Source ? © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Source ?Will OA Change This? © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Global Growth 2011 and BeyondBusiness diversification education, workflow solutions: decision support and analyticsLarge publishers will grow by partnering with or acquiring small publishers “Platform Wars”New Open Access business models may create disruptive structural changes within specific disciplines Let’s look at some examples… © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Business Diversification Macmillan Source ? © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Business Diversification Elsevier Source ? © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Title ? Articles are automatically annotated to identify all chemical structures mentioned in the text. N2S conversion enables InChIlook Source ? © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Are Social Media Part Of This? AIP, Sage Source ? © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Workflow Tools Just a Value Pyramid © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Workflow Chemistry Source ? © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Workflow Products Genomics Source: GeneGo © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Workflows Medicine, from Ads to EHRs Source ? © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Outsell Research Workflows Industrial Content Integration Training programs Engineering drawings Standards & specifications Technical papers Manufacturer's parts data & specs Textbooks Reference books Academic journals Conference proceedings & papers Company profile Instructional support materials Supplemental instructional materials Government directories Course packs, sourcebooks, & custom publishing News Industry trade journals & Publications Organization charts Employee directory & phone list Scientific, technical & medical journals Technical research reports Top 20 Information ypes elied upon by Aerospace and Defence Respondents © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Human Attention, Not Content, Has Become the Main Limiting Factor for KnowledgeBased Economies 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Enterprise Information (PB) No. of "Files" (T) Information(Petabytes) # Files +50% per year Source IDC 2009 Source ? © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Trends in US R&D Expenditure Indicate Fundamental Changes in Research Spending Source: NSF S&E Indicators, 2010 © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Workflows Content Integration Source ? © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Workflows Content IntegrationInnography(innovation + visualisation) is a small company that is at the cutting edge of content integration. It uses semantic fingerprinting to identify related documents: patents, standards, litigation, etc, and intuitive visual interfaces to enable the user to investigate the intellectual property landscape. Source ? © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Trends and Challenges in the STM arketplaceScientific content will continue to increase in volume and complexityProportion of research funding from/for industry will increaseTraditional academic budgets will grow much more slowlyBuyers will manage their collections on an ROI basis © Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved. Trends and Challenges in the STM Marketplace Open access will become a prominent, but not the dominant business modelLarge publishers will look for ways to diversify, specifically into “workflow tools” and new revenue sourcesMidsized publishers will seek to grow organically, by acquisition and by partnershipSmall publishers will struggle Come By and Wow with UsOutsell, Inc.Call +1 650.342.6060Fax +1 650.342.7135330 Primrose Road, Suite 510Burlingame, California 94010Call +1 617.497.9443Fax +1 617.497.5256 763 Massachusetts AvenueCambridge, Massachusetts 02139Call +44 (0)20 8090 6590Fax +44 (0)20 7031 810125 Floral Street, London, WC2E 9DSinfo@outsellinc.comwww.outsellinc.comTheinformation,analysis,andopinions(the“Content”)containedhereinarebasedthequalitativeandquantitativeresearchmethodsOutsell,Incanditsstaff’sextensiveprofessionalexpertisetheindustryOutsellhasuseditsbesteffortsandjudgmentthecompilationandpresentationtheContentandensurethebestitsabilitythattheContentaccuratethedatepublishedHowever,theindustryinformationcoveredthisreportsubjectrapidchangeOutsellmakesrepresentationswarranties,expressimplied,concerningrelatingtheaccuracytheContentthisreportandOutsellassumesliabilityrelatedclaimsconcerningtheContentthisreport