PreASPECT Conference Victoria BC November 7 2018 GDP per capita by industry 2 Source Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey 3 GDP per capita by industry Source Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey ID: 730059
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Slide1
Labour Market Conditions and OutlookPre-ASPECT Conference Victoria, B.C.November 7, 2018Slide2
GDP per capita by industry2
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force SurveySlide3
3
GDP per capita by industry
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force SurveySlide4
BC Labour Market4
1
35
,000
looking
4
,
00
0,000
15 and over
698
,000
under 15
2,
462
,000
working
1,3
27
,
000
don't want to
48
,000
unable
2017: 4.7 million British Columbians
1
25
,000
looking
4
,
00
0,000
15 and over
703
,000
under 15
2,
485
,000
working
1,3
73
,
000
don't want to
42
,
0
00
unable
2018: 4.8 million British ColumbiansSlide5
BC Unemployment Rate5
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force SurveySlide6
Historical Trend: Unemployment Rate and Participation Rate6
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force SurveySlide7
7
Trends by age group, 1976-2017
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
11.5%
Unchanged
9.6%Slide8
8Slide9
9B.C. by Age Group: Year over Year to October
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force SurveySlide10
Job Vacancies in BC10
Source: Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage SurveySlide11
Job Vacancy Rates by Economic Region11
Source: Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage SurveySlide12
Job Vacancies by Industry - #’s12
Industry
2018 Q2
Vacancy Rate
Average Offered Wage
Accommodation and food services
19,365
7.6
$ 13.65
Retail trade
12,970
4.5
$ 14.30
Construction
11,670
7.0
$ 22.55
Professional, scientific and technical services
11,360
4.2
$ 30.35
Health care and social assistance
8,015
3.0
$ 26.70
Transportation and warehousing
7,435
6.3 $ 23.00 Educational services
7,2202.0 $ 28.55 Manufacturing 6,315
4.0
$ 19.40 Source: Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage SurveySlide13
Job Vacancies by Industry - Vacancy Rates13
Industry
Total Vacancies
Vacancy Rate
Average Offered Wage
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
3,860
9
$ 15.20
Accommodation and food services
19,365
7.6
$ 13.65
Construction
11,670
7
$ 22.55
Transportation and warehousing
7,435
6.3
$ 23.00
Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services
6,000
5.5
$ 18.95
Other services (except public administration)
4,550
5.5 $ 19.25
Arts, entertainment and recreation2,5554.8 $ 15.85 Slide14
EI Beneficiaries
14Slide15
Unemployed
15
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force SurveySlide16
Not in labour force and wanting work
16
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force SurveySlide17
Those not in the labour force and not wanting work
17
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force SurveySlide18
18Slide19
19
Regional Employment Change over 15 Years
+379,100
+69,500
-2,000
+5,200
+
3,800
+53,100
+5,800
(2002 to 2017)
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force SurveySlide20
20
Regional Share of Employment
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
62% 64%
16% 16%
2% 2%
2
%
2%
4%
3%
11%
11
%
3% 3%
2002
&
2017Slide21
21
Cariboo
Monthly Labour Market Report:
Source: Statistics Canada, March
2018 – CANSIM 282-0122
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
October 2018
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started
):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
Cariboo Connector - Highway
97
Prince
George
$440M
Kelly Road
Secondary School Replacement
Prince George
$44M
Highway 97 Parsnip River Bridge Replacement
Prince George
$32MSlide22
22
Kootenay
Monthly Labour Market Report:
Source: Statistics Canada, March
2018 – CANSIM 282-0122
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
October 2018
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started
):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
Red Mountain Ski Resort Expansion
Rossland
$900M
Wildstone
Golf and Residential Development
Cranbrook
$750M
Elk Valley Water Quality Plan
Sparwood
$600MSlide23
Lower Mainland-Southwest
Monthly Labour Market
Report:
23
Source: Statistics Canada, March 2018 – CANSIM 282-0122
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
October 2018
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started
):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
River District
Development
Vancouver
$4.0B
Vancouver International Airport Upgrades
Richmond
$1.7B
King George Station Mixed-Use Development
Vancouver
$1.6B Slide24
24
North Coast and Nechako
Monthly Labour Market Report:
Source: Statistics Canada, March
2018 – CANSIM 282-0122
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point
October 2018
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started
):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal
Prince Rupert
$475M
Port of Stewart Expansion – Phase 3
Stewart
$70M
Highway 16 Passing Lanes and Intersection
Prince Rupert, Terrace,
& others
$38MSlide25
25
Northeast
Monthly Labour Market Report:
Source: Statistics Canada, March
2018 – CANSIM 282-0122
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point
October
2018
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started
):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
Site C Clean Energy Project
Fort St. John
$10.7B
Saturn Compressor Facility Expansion
Dawson Creek
$930M
The Station Town Centre
Fort St. John
$500MSlide26
26
Thompson-Okanagan
Monthly Labour Market
Report:
Source: Statistics Canada, March
2018 – CANSIM 282-0122
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
October
2018
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started
):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
Wilden Development
Kelowna
$2.1B
Ponderosa Residential Development
Peachland
$1.0B
Lakestone Resort Development
Lake Country
$1.0BSlide27
27
Vancouver Island and Coast
Monthly Labour Market Report:
Source: Statistics Canada, March
2018 – CANSIM
282-0122
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
October
2018
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started
):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
Westhills Green Neighbourhood
Langford
$2.0B
CFB Esquimalt Projects
Esquimalt
$1.3B
Bear Mountain Development
Langford
$1.2B Slide28
10 Year Sources of Labour Supply28
2018-2028 Forecast
903,000
Additions to Labour Supply
50%
27%
8%
Young people starting work
Immigrants
Migrants from other provinces
454,000
243,000
76,000
15%
Additional supply requirement
130,000
Source: BC 2018 Labour Market
OutlookSlide29
Projected Demand for Skills and Competencies, B.C., 2018-2028 29Slide30
Questions?Jeremy HiggsExecutive Director / Chief Labor Market EconomistResearch Information and Analysis BranchWorkforce Innovation and Division Responsible for Skills Training
30