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Energy Analysis Department  Electricity Markets and Policy Group
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Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group ... - PDF document

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Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group ... - PPT Presentation

ACEEE Energy Efficiency as a Resource Conference This work was supported by the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability of the US Department of Energy under Contract No DEAC0205CH11 ID: 410207

ACEEE Energy Efficiency

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Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group ACEEE Energy Efficiency as a Resource Conference This work was supported by the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group 22Presentation Presentation OutlineOutlineOverview of recent national and state trends affecting ratepayer-funded energy efficiency (EE) Berkeley Lab’s projection of spending and savings Regional projections and policy driversKey challenges to dramatically scaling-up Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group (1.2% of 2010 revenue, Source: CEE, State of the Efficien Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group 44Berkeley Lab Projections of RatepayerBerkeley Lab Projections of Ratepayer-- Funded EE Program Spending & SavingsFunded EE Program Spending & SavingsState-level projections are based on current policies in place and the broader policy environment within each state- Generic assumptions are used for a small number of “uncommitted” states that currently lack defined EE policiesLow, medium, and high scenarios for each state reflect uncertainties in how effectively and aggressively current EE policies are implemented- Scenarios do not necessarily reflect the full range of uncertainties (e.g., broader macroeconomic conditions or wholesale shifts in a given state’s EE policy orientation)Results presented here are preliminary; gas EE in progress! LBNL developed Low, Medium, and High projections of electric energy efficiency program spending and savings through 2025 Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group Adopted significant EERS policies (CA, MN, NY)Funding levels and program infrastructure are ramping up in a New EERS policies and shorter-term taDSM plans (Southwest)are moving forward on EE, though Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group Represents a doubling of electric revenues in Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group annual electricity achiev�ed 1.0% Annual electricity 0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%2010201520202025 Low Medium High Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group 3.1% in 2020 Medium Case)cost-effective EE”depends on 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%LowMedHigh South Midwest West Northeast Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group Regional Breakdown in Electric EE (Medium Case) Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group growth in Medium Case emphasis on other EE standards, more financing) Strong support for EE in the Rapid expansion in EE portfolios by (CEE)201520202025 Low Medium High West Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group ramp-up underway in MA (CEE)201520202025 Low Medium High Northeast Ratepayer-funded Electric EE Programs (Projected Spending as Percent of Revenues) Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group Ratepayer Funding Projections: Ratepayer Funding Projections: MidwestMidwestEERS targets increase substantially over the next By 2025, if states succeed in Some states are overachieving Will these performance levels be Some retrenchment (WI)1212 2010(CEE)201520202025 Low Medium High Midwest Ratepayer-funded Electric EE Programs (Projected Spending as Percent of Revenues) Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group Ratepayer Funding Projections: Ratepayer Funding Projections: SouthSouthTVA policy goal of being the South’s leader in EECoal retirements driven by low-- South has largest share of GWSpillover from one state to others via multi-state utilities (NC-SC)Start-up states (AR) serving as templates for currently uncommitted statesRIM test and spending caps in some states (VA, FL, TX)1313Ratepayer-funded Electric EE Programs (Projected Spending as Percent of Revenues) Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group institutional frameworkand capacity Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group 1515Which Scenario Will Transpire: Which Scenario Will Transpire: External FactorsExternal FactorsA persistent economic downturnmay impact the ability of EE administrators to meet savings targets as well as the political feasibility of increasing ratepayer funding for EE programsThe effect of new state and/or Federal appliance and lighting efficiency standardson the remaining market potential that can be captured by voluntary energy Impact of low natural gas pricesmay reduce avoided energy cost forecast and reduce the headroom for cost-effective EECost of proposed new nuclear unitsin the South may diminish interest in EE by regulators Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group 1616For More Information...For More Information...Stay Tuned for the Report : Projected U.S. and regional spending and savings for Electric and Gas EEExpected publication in late 2011 Contact the Authors: Galen Barbose ( ) (510) 984-3453Chuck Goldman (cagoldman@lbl.gov ) (510) 486-4637 Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group Divorced or not-so-happily married –diversions of public moving beyond IRPsand shopping